Best Actress may only have thirteen actresses competing for the five slots (as opposed to the 20 in both supporting categories), but the competition is fierce with many established actresses and former winners fighting for the win. There's also the recent category confusion for Meryl Streep- the actress who I've already ranked at number two in supporting may return to the leading category. But, until we receive a confirmation as to which category Streep will be competing, I'll keep her in Supporting. But that's not to suggest Lead is light in any sense of the word-
We may have already seen the winning performance in theaters as Cate Blanchett's work in
Blue Jasmine is nothing short of magnificent. The raved about performance is a behemoth for the other actresses to contend with and the only real obstacle Blanchett will face is the film's release date- July is certainly outside of Oscar season and the Academy doesn't have the best memory. But
Blue Jasmine is a Woody Allen film and has enough critical push to secure Blanchett a nomination. And, assuming another actress doesn't deliver a show-stopping performance, it's hard to imagine her being removed as the frontrunner.
The performance that could step up and steal Blanchett's thunder is Amy Adams' in
American Hustle. With early buzz suggesting that Adams is playing completely against type, I could certainly imagine David O. Russell directing her to a win. It also doesn't hurt that Adams has "overdue" status at this point. Being nominated four times in her relatively short but prolific career, Amy Adams could become a late-in-the-game favorite. I only hesitate that the film's absence from the film festival circuit (not because of it's quality- the movie isn't complete at the moment) could cause it to fly under the radar. But O.Russell's last two films were major films during their respective Oscar seasons, and I see no reason why this won't follow that trend.
We move on to another respected actress delivering a buzzed about performance- Kate Winslet in
Labor Day. Early word from Telluride suggests that Winslet turns in another excellent performance and with six nominations already her belt (not to mention a win for
The Reader) it's clear that Winslet will be quite the contender this year. The same can be said for Judi Dench in
Philomena. Dench is a legend, but she's only got one win to her name (for
Shakespeare in Love). She's not taking too many leading roles lately, so the Academy may take this chance to honor her for a career of solid work. The same could be said for Emma Thomspon, who's baity role in
Saving Mr. Banks could serve up an Oscar nomination and second win for acting (third altogether). That being said, I'm not too confident in Thompson simply because she doesn't seem to be stretching too far out of her comfort zone in this part.
Moving out of the top five bracket slots is an actress that could certainly climb the ranks once her film is released domestically. Sandra Bullock's (largely) one-woman show,
Gravity, is receiving rave reviews out of Venice and Telluride, though I could certainly see Cuarón's technical showmanship standing out to voters, especially since Bullock's one nomination proved to be one of the least popular wins of the past decade. But it's foolish to count her out just yet- if the film's reviews remain this positive and the movie finds success at the box office, she could earn her second nomination. Speaking of being shown up, Julia Robert's Oscar chances are largely dependent on whether or not Streep competes in Lead or Supporting. The last time two actors were nominated in lead for the same movie was in 1991 for
Thelma & Louise, so
August: Osage County has to make quite an impressive for Roberts to be a serious contender.
One performer I'm very curious to see is Berenice Bejo's in
The Past. The French actress has already been nominated once (in the supporting category) for
The Artist, and it will be interesting to see if the Academy will honor her with a second nomination. But
The Past is a much different film than
The Artist, and the Academy's only occasionally nominated actors for foreign films. But
The Past's positive reviews and director Asghar Farhadi's reputation could secure her a slot- or at least give her a chance.
Nicole Kidman could be a major contender for
Grace of Monaco. Biopics are always a big deal at the Oscars, and Kidman's a former winner with the Weinsteins behind her. But the film is due for release in almost two months and we've yet to see a trailer. Not to mention the footage screened at Cannes was met with a decidedly "meh" response. But don't count Kidman out just yet- if the film is released this year, and with a considerable amount of fanfare, she can make it.
Wrapping up the bracket are four actresses from smaller films that have a slight chance to climb the ranks. The woman with the best chance is Adéle Exarchopolous, who's Cannes breakout
Blue is the Warmest Color has become one of the most buzzed about films of the year. The movie will carry its NC-17 rating with it to theaters this fall- which will hurt it no doubt- but Exarchopolous still has a chance at breaking out and getting herself nominated.The same could be said for Brie Larson who's film
Short Term 12 will be hindered by it's relatively small production studio, but critics are on her side and the film is receiving near universal acclaim- so maybe she'll make it in. Julie Delpy also stands a slight chance if the Academy falls under
Before Midnight's spell- though the film will probably fare better in Adapted Screenplay. Lastly, Shailene Woodley might make it in for
The Spectacular Now, but I see her raved about performance as more of a starting off point as opposed to a first nomination.
Oscar predictions continue tomorrow with the bracket for Best Actor!
BRACKET:
- Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
- Amy Adams, American Hustle
- Kate Winslet, Labor Day
- Judi Dench, Philomena
- Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
- Sandra Bullock, Gravity
- Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
- Berenice Bejo, The Past
- Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
- Adéle Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
- Brie Larson, Short Term 12
- Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
- Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
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