I currently have twenty actresses on my bracket for Best Supporting Actress and I have a feeling that a few of these ladies will be removed as we get closer to Oscar season and that we may have a few more names to talk about once all is said and done. But even with twenty names, I only feel certain that two of these actresses will definitely be in contention for a nomination, let alone the win.
After seeing
Lee Daniels' The Butler I immediately knew that Oprah would be a major threat for the award. With the Weinstein's pushing her, a showy role and her esteemed reputation, I think she's locked for a nomination and is currently the safest prediction when it comes to guessing a winner. It also helps that the film she's in is about as safe and accessible as an Oscar movie can be. But the Weinstein's will also be representing her biggest competition- Meryl Streep. Seeing that Streep already has three Oscars to her name, and won only two years ago, I don't quite see her winning the award unless
August: Osage County really delivers. But she's most definitely getting a nomination.
Moving on we have Jennifer Lawrence, one of Hollywood's "it' girls who apparently has a baity role in the much anticipated
American Hustle. While her win last year hurts her chances at going home the victor this year, I definitely think she'll be nominated- or at least stands a good chance. I also have faith in Carey Mulligan, who's received positive reviews for her work in
Inside Llewyn Davis and, based on the trailer, seems to be quite a scene stealer. If the Academy falls for the film as critics have, I could see her scoring her second nomination. Rounding out the Top 5 is Margo Martindale, another member of the ensemble for
August: Osage County. Martindale may not be a household name, but she already has a (well deserved) Emmy for FX's "Justified" and has one of the most dramatic roles in the film. As long as she's not overshadowed by Streep and Julia Roberts (who's campaigning in lead), I think she can make it in.
On the borderline are three performances that seem like Oscar bait, but I'm not ready to predict them just yet. Octavia Spencer is terrific in
Fruitvale Station, but I feel like she's overshadowed by Michael B. Jordan and that the Weinstein's have so many supporting performances to campaign for that she'll fall by the wayside. Cameron Diaz's performance in
The Counselor is one of my most anticipated performances of the year, but she's not exactly known for her awards worthy performances and, even if she shines in the part, the film seems very dark and edgy- not exactly an Academy favorite. Finally, Naomie Harris looks strong in
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I'm not quite sure that the film will be a major contender at the moment. I'll have a better idea once the movie premiers at TIFF.
Moving on, Amy Adams role in
Her could get earn her a nomination though I feel like she'll fare much better in the Lead category thanks to her work in
American Hustle. I've also heard a lot of buzz about June Squibb's performance in
Nebraska, but I'm waiting until the film opens domestically before deciding on how strong the movie's chances are for awards glory. The two supporting actresses in
12 Years a Slave also stand a chance, but I need more reviews to hit the web before deciding on how strong there chances are.
Next up are two actresses who could stand a chance, though I'm not sure how much of an impact they make on their respective films. Jennifer Garner looks solid in the trailer for
Dallas Buyers Club, though her role also looks like the least dramatic of the three leads. Again, I'll have to wait for reviews to surface before I raise or lower her in my bracket. Laura Linney also stands a slight chance, though I'm not quite sure her performance will stand out when compared to Benedict Cumberbatch's portrayl of Jullian Assange. Only time will tell. Both films premiere at TIFF next week, so these two women could move up high on brackets by mid-September... or they can fall down drastically.
Now we move into the low part of the brackets- roles that I don't think have a strong chance but am not ready to count out altogether. Personally, I loved Melonie Diaz in
Fruitvale Station, but it seems like she's been largely passed over by critics, with most of the attention going to her costars. I also feel like Sally Hawkins has been overshadowed completely by Cate Blanchett's work in
Blue Jasmine and that she has very little chance at breaking out in this crowded field. Speaking of Blanchett, she has a slim chance at a double nomination this year, though I can't help but feel that she'll be too busy campaigning for her raved about leading role to focus on her supporting part in an ensemble cast. I'm interested in seeing what Margot Robbie brings to
The Wolf of Wall Street, but seeing as she's barely in the trailer and the film hasn't screened yet, it's too difficult to gage how much of a chance she has. Finally, we move into Catherine Keener (for
Captain Phillips) and Emily Watson (for
The Book Thief). Both are respected actresses, but there is little information about how much screentime they'll have. We'll get a better idea at their chances later in the year.
Below is the complete bracket, ranked from most likely to get nominated to the least. Check back tomorrow for the Best Supporting Actor bracket.
THE BRACKET:
- Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
- Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
- Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
- Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
- Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
- Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
- Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
- Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
- Amy Adams, Her
- June Squibb, Nebraska
- Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
- Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave
- Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
- Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
- Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
- Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
- Cate Blanchett, Monuments Men
- Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
- Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
- Emily Watson, The Book Thief
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