Post TIFF Oscar Update

As some of you may have noticed, I've already missed a deadline on my schedule. Well, that was (somewhat) intentional. I underestimated how drastically my rankings would be altered by the end of the fest, so I chose to wait until the end of TIFF to finalize this year's first batch of predictions. So, without further adieu-

The biggest change in the brackets is how strong of a contender 12 Years a Slave will be. I always thought the film would be one of the biggest movies of the fall, but it could be the one to beat. With unanimous raves from critics and the People's Choice Award under its belt, it's clear that 12 Years a Slave will earn nominations in many different categories and is currently the front runner for Best Picture, as well as Best Actor and Best Director. I've also moved up Lupita Nyong'o in the Supporting Actress bracket, though I'm not quite sure if she has the power to dethrone Oprah Winfrey from the top just yet. Michael Fassbender's apparently frightening performance also remains in the running for Best Supporting Actor, though the fact that his character is so unlikable prevents me from naming him the frontrunner.

Two other films that made quite the impression at TIFF are Dallas Buyers Club and Rush, both of which have risen in a number of brackets. For one thing, I feel confident that Matthew McConaughey and Daniel Brühl will earn nominations for their work in the film, and that Best Picture nominations are somewhat likely, particularly for Rush. But, when it comes to Dallas Buyers Club, I think it's Jared Leto who stands the best chance at a nomination, as virtually every review names him as the highlight (and heart) of the movie. As for Rush, it stands a decent chance at the Best Director category, though I do feel the film's box office results will help determine just how much of a contender it is.

When it comes to disappointing changes, I've lowered  my expectations for Labor Day and August: Osage County considerably. Labor Day received relatively mixed to negative reviews, so I think it's Best Picture chances are borderline at best (I'm waiting to see the critical response to Captain Phillips before removing it from the Top 10) and both Josh Brolin and Kate Winslet have fallen out of the Top 5. The film's best chance will, most likely, be Adapted Screenplay. As for August, I still have Meryl Streep in the Top 5 (because she's freakin' Meryl Streep) and Julia Roberts at the tail end of the Top 5 (because Best Supporting Actress is weak this year) but it's chances at a Best Picture nomination are not looking too good.

Some other quick but notable changes:  The Fifth Estate has been moved to the bottom of all the brackets and I'll likely remove the film altogether once it's released. I've also moved Judi Dench up to the second slot on the Best Actress category. Philomena is, apparently, quite a crowd pleaser and it's chances in Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay and possibly Best Picture have increased substantially. Felicity Jones has been added to the Best Supporting Actress bracket for her positively received work in The Invisible Woman, though the film could easily fall under the radar a la Fiennes' Coriolanus. Naomie Harris also climbed the ranks after receiving raves for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, though her onscreen husband, Elba, will have to deal with a tougher crowd of actors to break into the Top 5. And, of course, we're still waiting for reviews from a number of these films, but I'm placing films/performances in the bracket based on how I think they'll be received upon their release.

Below are my brackets in the Big Six categories. I'll update these brackets on October 14, after the New York Film Festival ends.

Movie Review: "Now You See Me"

Let me start this review by saying that I'm well aware that Now You See Me is about a group of magicians and that while many movies are grounded in a sense of reality, not all have to be. Just look at films like Iron Man- movies that use science faction and fantasy to tell their story by placing characters into interesting but unrealistic environments for the sake of entertainment. That's fine. What Now You See Me does, however, is not fine. Because even movies like Iron Man are grounded in some sense of reality. Yes, Ton Stark can use a robotic suit filled with weapons to fight off evildoers but it's not like he calls upon a dragon to rescue him when all hope seems lost. Movies can create whatever world they want, but they need to follow those rules if they want there story to have any credibility. Apparently, the writers of Now You See Me missed that lesson in screenwriting class.

About halfway through Now You See Me I decided to give up trying to guess what would happen. Not because the film was so intelligently structured that I had a hard time figuring out the twist, but because there was no point in trying to guess it anyway. No matter what I thought was going to happen, I could almost guarantee that the story was going to turn out some other way. That's because writers Ed Solomon, Boaz Yakin and Edward Ricourt don't seem to care that the film's many outlandish twists make absolutely no sense. In there world, every character seems to have impeccable knowledge of human behavior and virtually everybody is one step ahead of everybody else. A character will be intelligent when their knowledge is necessary to further the plot, and the same character will make a stupid mistake just a few minutes later. So, the "twists" in Now You See Me may be surprising, but only because they don't make sense in the fabric of the story. It's as if these three men sat down to write a screenplay and decided to abandon logic- instead, they'd just write what they thought sounded good.

And then there is the logic of these magicians and their abilities. The opening scene shows the way these magicians do their tricks and, a few moments later, Morgan Freeman discusses how he has the ability to debunk all of their illusions. Well, I sure as hell wish he did because the magic on display is bafflingly stupid. Again, I'm well aware this is a movie and not a documentary about the world of modern magic. But, to return to the Iron Man metaphor, it's not like he can shoot laser beams from his hands and fly just because. The film takes the time to explain how he built his weapons that allow him to do that. So, why can Isla Fischer magically transport herself across the room? How can Woody Harrelson's "mentalism" help him to know the intimate details of just about everybody he comes into contact with? The questions go on from there. Again, I'm not asking this film to be the height of realism, but I am asking for the film to at least make sense. When characters can do whatever the hell the writers want them to do, it makes the film considerably less enjoyable.

But the biggest crime of perpetuated by these screenwriters is  that they have wasted the talents of an all star cast. Now You See Me has one of the most impressive ensembles of the year, and not a single actor in the cast has a moment to shine. In fact, some of the actors are downright unimpressive. Jesse Eisenberg, in particular, came off as unbearable. Now, Eisenberg's performance as Mark Zuckerberg remains brilliant (and my favorite male performance of 2010). In Now You See Me,  Eisenberg repeats his Zuckerberg shtick but to the most annoying degree possible. His character is one of the most unlikable this year, and Eisenberg's performance lacks any sense of charisma. Perhaps the only actor with less screen presence in the film is Dave Franco. Then you have Mark Ruffalo, who essentially grumbles his way through the whole movie, while Michael Caine and Morgan Freeman turn in bland performances that we've seen them do many times before. The only actors that came out OK were Woody Harrelson, Isla Fischer, and Melanie Laurent and they are all serviceable at best.

Now You See Me was a surprise hit at the box office this summer, grossing more than the big star vehicles of two of Hollywood's most prolific leading men- Will Smith's After Earth and Johnny Depp's The Lone Ranger. And I suppose I understand why. Now You See Me is the sort of film that's easy for audiences to digest. It's perfect summer viewing- a mildly entertaining way to pass two hours in an air conditioned theater. But Now You See Me is not a good film. Sure, a few scenes were mildly interesting and the cast made a couple of the one liners work, but the film is so moronic and annoying that I couldn't truly have fun watching. I like being surprised by movie twists, but not when those surprises force the screenplay to sacrifice logic. And logic is something Now You See Me is lacking in.

Movie Review: "Lovelace"

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Oscar Predictions Round One: Best Director

Unlike with actors, it's a lot harder to discuss the Best Director category until all the films have been seen. So, this round of predictions will be somewhat light. With the Toronto International Film Festival currently underway and many of these films premiering for critics within the weeks to come, we'll soon have a much better idea as to who's the frontrunner. But for now...

The only person that I'd consider an official contender is Alfonso Cuarón, who'll likely be nominated based on the film's technical achievements. With each new (rave) review, Gravity climbs higher and higher in my Best Picture bracket and I think it's safe to say that Cuarón will remain in the conversation for the entire season. He could be this year's Ang Lee.

But after that, it largely becomes a guessing game. Both David O. Russell and Martin Scorsese are handling two of the biggest films of the season, but both will remain unseen for sometime. I'm placing them both high, based on name alone, but that could change once reviews start pouring in. And, for the record, I have more faith in Russell this season based on the fact that he's coming off one of last year's biggest successes, Silver Linings Playbook. The last of my two top slots belong to Steve McQueen and Jason Reitman. While both of their films have already premiered, I think it's a bit too early in the season to raise them any higher than the fourth or fifth slot... yet. I do have a feeling McQueen will be nominated, however, as 12 Years a Slave sounds like it will live up to the hype. As for Reitman, I'm a bit hesitant as I've seen a fair share of negative reviews for Labor Day, though he seems to have a solid reputation within the Academy.

After that, it becomes even harder to guess- Bennet Miller and Ron Howard could sneak in if their films are well received upon their domestic release, while Ryan Coogler and J.C. Chandor also have a chance if their respective studios help them to build buzz later in the year. I also have some faith in the Coens, Lee Daniels and Paul Greengrass, though their films seem a bit on the smaller side when compared to the massive Oscar pictures like 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle. Wrapping up the bracket- Jean-Marc Vallée, John Lee Hancock, Spike Jonze and Ridley Scott who can only rise once reviews for their films start coming in.

I'll be posting my Best Picture bracket on Sunday night!

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. David O. Russell, American Hustle
3. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
5. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
6. Bennet Miller, Foxcatcher
7. Ron Howard, Rush
8. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
9. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
10. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
11. Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
12. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
13. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
14. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
15. Spike Jonze, Her
16. Ridley Scott, The Counselor

Oscar Predictions Round One: Best Actor

Last year, Best Actor was barely a competition- the Academy probably started engraving Daniel Day-Lewis' name once he was announced as the star of Spielberg's Lincoln. But this year there is so many A-list actors in potentially career-defining roles that predicting a winner, let alone the nominees, proved challenging. This is a bracket that will undoubtedly change as we get further into Oscar season.

The Academy loves a good narrative to go with their win, and my top two predictions have just that. Both Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey look great in their respective roles but also have a story to go with their Oscar bait parts. DiCaprio is arguably one of the few remaining movie stars and has appeared in some of the biggest films of the past decade- many of which happened to be directed by Martin Scorsese. Yet, the Academy hasn't honored him with a win, despite being nominated three time. DiCaprio is arguably a textbook example of an "overdue actor." And if anyone's going to direct him to his first win, it'll be Scorsese. Of course, we'll have to wait and see how The Wolf of Wall Street is received critically, and if the apparently graphic content could turn off voters, but I think it's safe to say DiCaprio stands a chance at a nomination- and maybe even a win.

On the opposite side of the narrative spectrum is Matthew McConaughey, who's massive weight loss for Dallas Buyers Club has already earned both he and the film significant attention. While McConaughey spent a majority of his career starring in critically panned romantic comedies the actor has been on the path to redefining his career and what better way to solidify his comeback to quality films with his first Oscar nomination? From Killer Joe to Magic Mike and, most recently, Mud, McConaughey has proved to be one of the most consistently solid supporting players and all eyes will be on his starring turn in Dallas Buyers Club once the film premiers at Toronto next week. If the film receives positive reviews, McConaughey stands a good chance at getting a nomination and completely redefining his career.

Moving away from narratives and towards pure talent, Chiewetel Ejiofor has been the talk of Telluride and many are saying the actor will procure his first Oscar nomination for his show stopping  performance. 12 Years a Slave seems to be the first full-fledged Oscar vehicle- a movie that could secure many different nominations and stands a chance at winning Best Picture. If the film's buzz remains this strong, Ejiofor will undoubtedly be in contention for a nomination. The same could be said for Robert Redford's one man show, All is Lost, which opened to universal praise at Cannes and is hoping to sustain that enthusiasm as the year continues. Unlike 12 Years a Slave and the other major films this Oscar season, All is Lost is at tough sell to mainstream audiences and probably won't play in many theaters, but Redford's a screen legend and has never won an Oscar for acting (he won for directing in the 1980s for Ordinary People). This could be the Academy's chance to fix that.

Rounding out my Top 5 is an actor that I'm, admittently, placing high simply because I have great faith in both him and the film itself. Christian Bale's performance in American Hustle is easily one of my most anticipated for the rest of the year. Based on the trailer, he's clearly channeling 70s DeNiro for the part, and Russell has a knack for directing actors, so this will no doubt be a buzzed about performance- which will remain unseen until at least November. But there are two other actors that are on the fringes of the category- Michael B. Jordan and Forest Whitaker. Both actors received positive reviews from critics and have the Weinstein's backing their films, so it'll really depend on which one the mega-producers will put their stock into. I think Jordan has a better chance at securing a nom, simply because most of the buzz for The Butler centers around Oprah Winfrey, but that could change as the year goes on.

Moving down the list we have four actors who aren't exactly favorites amongst the Academy but could gain a significant amount of attention this season. After being nominated for the first time last year, Hugh Jackman could find himself a two-time nominee for his work in Prisoners. I originally pegged the thriller as more of a B-grade picture that probably wouldn't gain much traction amongst the heavy hitters this fall, but with early reviews comparing it to Fincher's Zodiac and Seven, my anticipation has skyrocketed- as did my hope in the film's Oscar prospects. There's also Oscar Isaac, the relatively unknown star of Inside Llewyn Davis. The Coens have become an Academy favorite, and while the film doesn't look as awardshow friendly as True Grit or No Country For Old Men, it will most definitely secure a few nominations and Best Actor could be one of them- though I have more faith for the film in the supporting categories. Then there is Steve Carell's performance in Foxcatcher- a part that could redefine his career, though I'm holding off on going higher until we at least see a trailer. And there's Bruce Dern's work in Nebraska, which I initially had little faith in due to its tepid response at Cannes. But, the film has been receiving better word of mouth after appearing at Telluride and Venice, so he might have a chance at making it after all.

Two actors I could see making it in are Idris Elba and Tom Hanks- though I'm waiting for the films to premiere before moving them up the ranks. Hanks, I feel, has a much better chance at standing out in the Supporting category, though I think his overall chances at an Oscar will depend on which film is more warmly received by critics. Elba, on the other hand, has a chance only if Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom receives rave reviews from critics. Even with positive reviews, it will take a lot for a relative unknown like Elba to stand out amongst a crowd of movie stars.

Finally, the bracket ends with four performers who will undoubtedly deliver strong performances, though there chances at an Oscar will largely depend on whether or not the films they star in falls under the Academy's radar. Joaquin Phoenix looks amazing in the trailer for Her, but the film doesn't look like something the Academy will fall in love with. To break into the category, Phoenix will need to be raved about and Her will have to stand a chance in the Best Picture race- which I'm not sure it will. Benedict Cumberbatch, meanwhile, will likely deliver a strong performance as Julian Asange, though the film itself may not cater to the Academy's tastes. We'll get a better idea of that once the film premieres at TIFF tomorrow. Ben Stiller also stands a chance at Oscar glory for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty- though, if anything, that film will probably stand out amongst the technical awards. And finally, Michael Fassbender will probably fare better in the Supporting Actor category, as his role in The Counselor seems like the least interesting of the principal cast- and the film seems too dark for the Academy's tastes anyway. Though, again, this is a competitive category and there will definitely be monumental shifts in the bracket within the next few weeks.

Check back tomorrow for the Best Director bracket!

BRACKET:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Chiewetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle
6. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
7. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
8. Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
9. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
11. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
12. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
13. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
14. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
15. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
16. Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
17. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor

Oscar Predictions Round One: Best Actress

Best Actress may only have thirteen actresses competing for the five slots (as opposed to the 20 in both supporting categories), but the competition is fierce with many established actresses and former winners fighting for the win. There's also the recent category confusion for Meryl Streep- the actress who I've already ranked at number two in supporting may return to the leading category. But, until we receive a confirmation as to which category Streep will be competing, I'll keep her in Supporting. But that's not to suggest Lead is light in any sense of the word-

We may have already seen the winning performance in theaters as Cate Blanchett's work in Blue Jasmine is nothing short of magnificent. The raved about performance is a behemoth for the other actresses to contend with and the only real obstacle Blanchett will face is the film's release date- July is certainly outside of Oscar season and the Academy doesn't have the best memory. But Blue Jasmine is a Woody Allen film and has enough critical push to secure Blanchett a nomination. And, assuming another actress doesn't deliver a show-stopping performance, it's hard to imagine her being removed as the frontrunner.

The performance that could step up and steal Blanchett's thunder is Amy Adams' in American Hustle. With early buzz suggesting that Adams is playing completely against type, I could certainly imagine David O. Russell directing her to a win. It also doesn't hurt that Adams has "overdue" status at this point. Being nominated four times in her relatively short but prolific career, Amy Adams could become a late-in-the-game favorite. I only hesitate that the film's absence from the film festival circuit (not because of it's quality- the movie isn't complete at the moment) could cause it to fly under the radar. But O.Russell's last two films were major films during their respective Oscar seasons, and I see no reason why this won't follow that trend.

We move on to another respected actress delivering a buzzed about performance- Kate Winslet in Labor Day. Early word from Telluride suggests that Winslet turns in another excellent performance and with six nominations already her belt (not to mention a win for The Reader) it's clear that Winslet will be quite the contender this year. The same can be said for Judi Dench in Philomena. Dench is a legend, but she's only got one win to her name (for Shakespeare in Love). She's not taking too many leading roles lately, so the Academy may take this chance to honor her for a career of solid work. The same could be said for Emma Thomspon, who's baity role in Saving Mr. Banks could serve up an Oscar nomination and second win for acting (third altogether). That being said, I'm not too confident in Thompson simply because she doesn't seem to be stretching too far out of her comfort zone in this part.

Moving out of the top five bracket slots is an actress that could certainly climb the ranks once her film is released domestically. Sandra Bullock's (largely) one-woman show, Gravity, is receiving rave reviews out of Venice and Telluride, though I could certainly see Cuarón's technical showmanship standing out to voters, especially since Bullock's one nomination proved to be one of the least popular wins of the past decade. But it's foolish to count her out just yet- if the film's reviews remain this positive and the movie finds success at the box office, she could earn her second nomination. Speaking of being shown up, Julia Robert's Oscar chances are largely dependent on whether or not Streep competes in Lead or Supporting. The last time two actors were nominated in lead for the same movie was in 1991 for Thelma & Louise, so August: Osage County has to make quite an impressive for Roberts to be a serious contender.

One performer I'm very curious to see is Berenice Bejo's in The Past. The French actress has already been nominated once (in the supporting category) for The Artist, and it will be interesting to see if the Academy will honor her with a second nomination. But The Past is a much different film than The Artist, and the Academy's only occasionally nominated actors for foreign films. But The Past's positive reviews and director Asghar Farhadi's reputation could secure her a slot- or at least give her a chance.

Nicole Kidman could be a major contender for Grace of Monaco. Biopics are always a big deal at the Oscars, and Kidman's a former winner with the Weinsteins behind her. But the film is due for release in almost two months and we've yet to see a trailer. Not to mention the footage screened at Cannes was met with a decidedly "meh" response. But don't count Kidman out just yet- if the film is released this year, and with a considerable amount of fanfare, she can make it.

Wrapping up the bracket are four actresses from smaller films that have a slight chance to climb the ranks. The woman with the best chance is Adéle Exarchopolous, who's Cannes breakout Blue is the Warmest Color has become one of the most buzzed about films of the year. The movie will carry its NC-17 rating with it to theaters this fall- which will hurt it no doubt- but Exarchopolous still has a chance at breaking out and getting herself nominated.The same could be said for Brie Larson who's film Short Term 12 will be hindered by it's relatively small production studio, but critics are on her side and the film is receiving near universal acclaim- so maybe she'll make it in. Julie Delpy also stands a slight chance if the Academy falls under Before Midnight's spell- though the film will probably fare better in Adapted Screenplay. Lastly, Shailene Woodley might make it in for The Spectacular Now, but I see her raved about performance as more of a starting off point as opposed to a first nomination.

Oscar predictions continue tomorrow with the bracket for Best Actor!

BRACKET:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Amy Adams, American Hustle
3. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
4. Judi Dench, Philomena
5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
6. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
7. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
8. Berenice Bejo, The Past
9. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
10. Adéle Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
11. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
12. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
13. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Supporting Actor

Just like the Best Supporting Actress bracket, there are twenty names that I think are worthy of discussion when it comes to predicting the Best Supporting Actor race. But, unlike the Best Supporting Actress category, there are many foreseeable outcomes and competition for the prize is fierce. There is no frontrunner at the moment, and I don't see that changing until late into the season- after all the films have premiered.

The performance I can see being the most Academy friendly is Josh Brolin's in Labor Day. Jason Reitman's coming of age tale is one of my most anticipated this year and Brolin's apparently got some fantastic scenes next to Oscar winner Kate Winslet. Reitman has a great track record when it comes to directing Oscar nominated performances and with the film receiving positive early reviews I think it's safe to say his name will be in contention for the win. But he's not the only big actor with a showy role. Perhaps the showiest is Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks, where the two time winner will play none other than Walt Disney. If he nails the role- which, judging by the trailer, he does- I can see the Academy eating it up. Though his big role in Captain Phillips could steal some traction if he's great in that too. And, finally, Michael Fassbender's performance in 12 Years a Slave could be received warmly from the Academy- though I'm a bit apprehensive based on how dark the material is. Still, many at Telluride are hailing it as a frontrunner for Best Picture so Fassbender stands a decent chance.

Moving on, I'm thinking that Mark Ruffalo could earn his second nomination for his work in Foxcatcher, especially since Steve Carell will be campaigning in lead. Early buzz suggests that he turns in a great performance, and Bennet Miller has already directed four actors (including Jonah Hill) to an Oscar nomination. I see no reason to believe Ruffalo doesn't (at least) have a shot. I'll need to see a trailer before I make any bold claims, however. I also need to wait until I read some reviews before getting brash with my placement of Daniel Brühl, but his part in Ron Howard's Rush is the definition of Oscar bait. While Brühl may be a relative unknown in America, this could be the film that propels him to superstardom- and an Oscar nod will no doubt help with that.

Just outside my top five are two former nominees and one character actor who's long overdue. Bradley Cooper's career is at the highest its ever been and the Academy will certainly take note of his performance in American Hustle. It certainly helps that he's reunited with David O. Russell, director of Silver Linings Playbook and that the rest of the principal cast are former nominees as well. I'm not quite sure that Monuments Men stands a chance at Oscar glory, but I feel like Matt Damon is the movie's best chance at a major award. And finally- John Goodman is long overdue for recognition from the Academy, and this could be his year. I'm just a bit hesistant, however, as his role in Inside Llewyn Davis is supposedly quite small.

Moving down the list we come to Jared Leto, who impressed me with his few seconds of screen time during the Dallas Buyers Club trailer. He may not be your typical Oscar nominee but I think he can breakthrough if the movie connects with critics and audiences. There is also Sam Rockwell's raved about performance in The Way, Way Back, which will need a serious push from Fox Searchlight but could definitely be a contender if some of the bigger films this fall disappoint. There's also Benedict Cumberbatch, who's slowly becoming a huge star in America, though he'll need to turn in a truly stellar performance to get noticed amongst A-listers like Meryl Streep and Julia Roberts in August: Osage County. The same can be said about Jeremy Renner's part in American Hustle- his role seems the least dramatic of the lead cast and I could see him getting passed over, especially since he'll be competing with a co-star.

Next we have Jonah Hill, Javier Bardem and Woody Harrelson- three performances that could earn a lot of awards buzz, but have gone unseen. Hill's already earned one nomination and starring in a Martin Scorsese film is bound to earn him some buzz, though I really can't predict how much of a part he'll have in the actual film. Javier Bardem, meanwhile, looks solid in the trailer for The Counselor, though the film's quality- and overall Oscar-frinedliness- is up in the air right now. As for Harrelson, he looks solid in the trailer for Out of the Furnace, but I can't tell if the film will be an awards contender or not. Matthew McConaughey also appears on the bracket- though Mud's April release date seriously stunted his chances at breaking out.

Rounding out the bracket are four performers who could stand a chance but I feel are going to be overshadowed almost entirely by the film's leading ladies. Alec Baldwin, Steve Coogan, George Clooney and Tim Roth all have a chance, but (I think) it's a slim one.

BRACKET:

1. Josh Brolin, Labor Day
2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
4. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
5. Daniel Brühl, Rush
6. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
7. Matt Damon, Monuments Men
8. John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
10. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
11. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
12. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
13. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
14. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
15. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
16. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
17. Alec Baldwin, Blue Jasmine
18. Steve Coogan, Philomena
19. George Clooney, Gravity
20. Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco

Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Supporting Actress

I currently have twenty actresses on my bracket for Best Supporting Actress and I have a feeling that a few of these ladies will be removed as we get closer to Oscar season and that we may have a few more names to talk about once all is said and done. But even with twenty names, I only feel certain that two of these actresses will definitely be in contention for a nomination, let alone the win.

After seeing Lee Daniels' The Butler I immediately knew that Oprah would be a major threat for the award. With the Weinstein's pushing her, a showy role and her esteemed reputation, I think she's locked for a nomination and is currently the safest prediction when it comes to guessing a winner. It also helps that the film she's in is about as safe and accessible as an Oscar movie can be. But the Weinstein's will also be representing her biggest competition- Meryl Streep. Seeing that Streep already has three Oscars to her name, and won only two years ago, I don't quite see her winning the award unless August: Osage County really delivers. But she's most definitely getting a nomination.

Moving on we have Jennifer Lawrence, one of Hollywood's "it' girls who apparently has a baity role in the much anticipated American Hustle. While her win last year hurts her chances at going home the victor this year, I definitely think she'll be nominated- or at least stands a good chance. I also have faith in Carey Mulligan, who's received positive reviews for her work in Inside Llewyn Davis and, based on the trailer, seems to be quite a scene stealer. If the Academy falls for the film as critics have, I could see her scoring her second nomination. Rounding out the Top 5 is Margo Martindale, another member of the ensemble for August: Osage County. Martindale may not be a household name, but she already has a (well deserved) Emmy for FX's "Justified" and has one of the most dramatic roles in the film. As long as she's not overshadowed by Streep and Julia Roberts (who's campaigning in lead), I think she can make it in.

On the borderline are three performances that seem like Oscar bait, but I'm not ready to predict them just yet. Octavia Spencer is terrific in Fruitvale Station, but I feel like she's overshadowed by Michael B. Jordan and that the Weinstein's have so many supporting performances to campaign for that she'll fall by the wayside. Cameron Diaz's performance in The Counselor is one of my most anticipated performances of the year, but she's not exactly known for her awards worthy performances and, even if she shines in the part, the film seems very dark and edgy- not exactly an Academy favorite. Finally, Naomie Harris looks strong in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I'm not quite sure that the film will be a major contender at the moment. I'll have a better idea once the movie premiers at TIFF.

Moving on, Amy Adams role in Her could get earn her a nomination though I feel like she'll fare much better in the Lead category thanks to her work in American Hustle. I've also heard a lot of buzz about June Squibb's performance in Nebraska, but I'm waiting until the film opens domestically before deciding on how strong the movie's chances are for awards glory. The two supporting actresses in 12 Years a Slave also stand a chance, but I need more reviews to hit the web before deciding on how strong there chances are.

Next up are two actresses who could stand a chance, though I'm not sure how much of an impact they make on their respective films. Jennifer Garner looks solid in the trailer for Dallas Buyers Club, though her role also looks like the least dramatic of the three leads. Again, I'll have to wait for reviews to surface before I raise or lower her in my bracket. Laura Linney also stands a slight chance, though I'm not quite sure her performance will stand out when compared to Benedict Cumberbatch's portrayl of Jullian Assange. Only time will tell. Both films premiere at TIFF next week, so these two women could move up high on brackets by mid-September... or they can fall down drastically.

Now we move into the low part of the brackets- roles that I don't think have a strong chance but am not ready to count out altogether. Personally, I loved Melonie Diaz in Fruitvale Station, but it seems like she's been largely passed over by critics, with most of the attention going to her costars. I also feel like Sally Hawkins has been overshadowed completely by Cate Blanchett's work in Blue Jasmine and that she has very little chance at breaking out in this crowded field. Speaking of Blanchett, she has a slim chance at a double nomination this year, though I can't help but feel that she'll be too busy campaigning for her raved about leading role to focus on her supporting part in an ensemble cast. I'm interested in seeing what Margot Robbie brings to The Wolf of Wall Street, but seeing as she's barely in the trailer and the film hasn't screened yet, it's too difficult to gage how much of a chance she has. Finally, we move into Catherine Keener (for Captain Phillips) and Emily Watson (for The Book Thief). Both are respected actresses, but there is little information about how much screentime they'll have. We'll get a better idea at their chances later in the year.

Below is the complete bracket, ranked from most likely to get nominated to the least. Check back tomorrow for the Best Supporting Actor bracket.

THE BRACKET:

1. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
2. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
3. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
4. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
6. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
7. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
8. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
9. Amy Adams, Her
10. June Squibb, Nebraska
11. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
12. Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave
13. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
14. Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
15. Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
16. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
17. Cate Blanchett, Monuments Men
18. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
19. Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
20. Emily Watson, The Book Thief