Oscar Predictions Round One: Best Actor

Last year, Best Actor was barely a competition- the Academy probably started engraving Daniel Day-Lewis' name once he was announced as the star of Spielberg's Lincoln. But this year there is so many A-list actors in potentially career-defining roles that predicting a winner, let alone the nominees, proved challenging. This is a bracket that will undoubtedly change as we get further into Oscar season.

The Academy loves a good narrative to go with their win, and my top two predictions have just that. Both Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey look great in their respective roles but also have a story to go with their Oscar bait parts. DiCaprio is arguably one of the few remaining movie stars and has appeared in some of the biggest films of the past decade- many of which happened to be directed by Martin Scorsese. Yet, the Academy hasn't honored him with a win, despite being nominated three time. DiCaprio is arguably a textbook example of an "overdue actor." And if anyone's going to direct him to his first win, it'll be Scorsese. Of course, we'll have to wait and see how The Wolf of Wall Street is received critically, and if the apparently graphic content could turn off voters, but I think it's safe to say DiCaprio stands a chance at a nomination- and maybe even a win.

On the opposite side of the narrative spectrum is Matthew McConaughey, who's massive weight loss for Dallas Buyers Club has already earned both he and the film significant attention. While McConaughey spent a majority of his career starring in critically panned romantic comedies the actor has been on the path to redefining his career and what better way to solidify his comeback to quality films with his first Oscar nomination? From Killer Joe to Magic Mike and, most recently, Mud, McConaughey has proved to be one of the most consistently solid supporting players and all eyes will be on his starring turn in Dallas Buyers Club once the film premiers at Toronto next week. If the film receives positive reviews, McConaughey stands a good chance at getting a nomination and completely redefining his career.

Moving away from narratives and towards pure talent, Chiewetel Ejiofor has been the talk of Telluride and many are saying the actor will procure his first Oscar nomination for his show stopping  performance. 12 Years a Slave seems to be the first full-fledged Oscar vehicle- a movie that could secure many different nominations and stands a chance at winning Best Picture. If the film's buzz remains this strong, Ejiofor will undoubtedly be in contention for a nomination. The same could be said for Robert Redford's one man show, All is Lost, which opened to universal praise at Cannes and is hoping to sustain that enthusiasm as the year continues. Unlike 12 Years a Slave and the other major films this Oscar season, All is Lost is at tough sell to mainstream audiences and probably won't play in many theaters, but Redford's a screen legend and has never won an Oscar for acting (he won for directing in the 1980s for Ordinary People). This could be the Academy's chance to fix that.

Rounding out my Top 5 is an actor that I'm, admittently, placing high simply because I have great faith in both him and the film itself. Christian Bale's performance in American Hustle is easily one of my most anticipated for the rest of the year. Based on the trailer, he's clearly channeling 70s DeNiro for the part, and Russell has a knack for directing actors, so this will no doubt be a buzzed about performance- which will remain unseen until at least November. But there are two other actors that are on the fringes of the category- Michael B. Jordan and Forest Whitaker. Both actors received positive reviews from critics and have the Weinstein's backing their films, so it'll really depend on which one the mega-producers will put their stock into. I think Jordan has a better chance at securing a nom, simply because most of the buzz for The Butler centers around Oprah Winfrey, but that could change as the year goes on.

Moving down the list we have four actors who aren't exactly favorites amongst the Academy but could gain a significant amount of attention this season. After being nominated for the first time last year, Hugh Jackman could find himself a two-time nominee for his work in Prisoners. I originally pegged the thriller as more of a B-grade picture that probably wouldn't gain much traction amongst the heavy hitters this fall, but with early reviews comparing it to Fincher's Zodiac and Seven, my anticipation has skyrocketed- as did my hope in the film's Oscar prospects. There's also Oscar Isaac, the relatively unknown star of Inside Llewyn Davis. The Coens have become an Academy favorite, and while the film doesn't look as awardshow friendly as True Grit or No Country For Old Men, it will most definitely secure a few nominations and Best Actor could be one of them- though I have more faith for the film in the supporting categories. Then there is Steve Carell's performance in Foxcatcher- a part that could redefine his career, though I'm holding off on going higher until we at least see a trailer. And there's Bruce Dern's work in Nebraska, which I initially had little faith in due to its tepid response at Cannes. But, the film has been receiving better word of mouth after appearing at Telluride and Venice, so he might have a chance at making it after all.

Two actors I could see making it in are Idris Elba and Tom Hanks- though I'm waiting for the films to premiere before moving them up the ranks. Hanks, I feel, has a much better chance at standing out in the Supporting category, though I think his overall chances at an Oscar will depend on which film is more warmly received by critics. Elba, on the other hand, has a chance only if Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom receives rave reviews from critics. Even with positive reviews, it will take a lot for a relative unknown like Elba to stand out amongst a crowd of movie stars.

Finally, the bracket ends with four performers who will undoubtedly deliver strong performances, though there chances at an Oscar will largely depend on whether or not the films they star in falls under the Academy's radar. Joaquin Phoenix looks amazing in the trailer for Her, but the film doesn't look like something the Academy will fall in love with. To break into the category, Phoenix will need to be raved about and Her will have to stand a chance in the Best Picture race- which I'm not sure it will. Benedict Cumberbatch, meanwhile, will likely deliver a strong performance as Julian Asange, though the film itself may not cater to the Academy's tastes. We'll get a better idea of that once the film premieres at TIFF tomorrow. Ben Stiller also stands a chance at Oscar glory for The Secret Life of Walter Mitty- though, if anything, that film will probably stand out amongst the technical awards. And finally, Michael Fassbender will probably fare better in the Supporting Actor category, as his role in The Counselor seems like the least interesting of the principal cast- and the film seems too dark for the Academy's tastes anyway. Though, again, this is a competitive category and there will definitely be monumental shifts in the bracket within the next few weeks.

Check back tomorrow for the Best Director bracket!

BRACKET:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Chiewetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle
6. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
7. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
8. Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
9. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
11. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
12. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
13. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
14. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
15. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
16. Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
17. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor