Updating My Oscar Predictions

We're getting into the heat of Oscar season, with only The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle going unseen (though the latter has held test screenings and some reactions are available online). While the Best Picture race seems to have come down to a duel between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, there is a lot of heavy competition this year in a variety of categories, and it's still too early to call anybody a frontrunner. Once we get into December and find out who's nominated for Golden Globes, SAGs and Critic Choice Awards we may have a better idea as to who is a full-on threat and who's a likely snub, but for now we're just going to have to do a lot of speculating. So, without further adieu-

THE SCREENPLAYS-

In the adapted category, 12 Years a Slave poises a fairly big threat to the rest of the competition. The Best Picture contender will, most likely, emerge the frontrunner as we delve deeper into the season, and it's hard to imagine any other movie coming out as a major threat. The biggest threat at the moment is Before Midnight, but that film has very little chance in other major categories, whereas 12 Years a Slave will be a major player for the awards season as a whole. Before Midnight is almost guaranteed a nomination, but a win just doesn't seem likely.

Also likely to be nominated is Philomena, a supposedly heartwarming dramadey that has the unstoppable force of The Weinstein Company behind it. With a Thanksgiving release date, the film is entering the Oscar fray at the perfect time and will likely remain in conversation for the rest of the year. Still waiting to be seen, The Wolf of Wall Street's screenplay could present itself as a threat (assuming the film delivers, of course). We've also got Captain Phillips and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty to consider, as well as August: Osage County and Labor Day, though the less than positive reviews for those two have made me worry about their chances.

Moving on to Original Screenplay, competition is proving to be pretty fierce. Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis and Blue Jasmine are all right up the Academy's alley, while the unseen American Hustle will likely appeal to them as well, especially since many view Russell as overdue for an award after losing in the Adapted category last year. There is also Spike Jonze's Her to consider. While the film isn't exactly Oscar friendly, the Academy honored Charlie Kauffman's screenplays for Being John Malkovich and Adaptation., and the reviews for Her have been unanimously positive. It's definitely a contender. There is, of course, also Gravity, but the fact that so much of the film involves special effects as opposed to dialogue makes me doubt it has a serious chance in the category (though, rest assured, it will be amongst the biggest films at the ceremony). Potential underdogs include Enough Said, Dallas Buyers Club and Lee Daniels' The Butler, though they would need a pretty big push to break into this competitive field.

Current predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
2. Richard Linklater, Julie Deply and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
3. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
4. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Current predictions for Best Original Screenplay:

1. Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
3. Spike Jonze, Her
4. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST DIRECTOR:

Similar to the Best Picture category,  Best Director has largely been narrowed down to two contenders: Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron. Both are virtually locked for a nomination, though it is perhaps too early to declare either a lock for the win. But as for the rest of the field? It's a bit of a bloodbath. Veterans like Martin Scorsese and the Coen brothers will be duking it out with relatively new favorites like David O. Russell and Paul Greengrass. Meanwhile, Spike Jonze, J.C. Chandor, Alexander Payne, and Lee Daniels all have a (slight) chance at breaking in to the field. But the contender I'm most interested in is John Lee Hancock- Saving Mr. Banks sounds like it will be an Academy favorite, and if they respond to it particularly well I could see it breaking into the top five. It certainly doesn't hurt that Saving Mr. Banks will be fresh in voters' memories, whereas films like Captain Phillips won't be as relevant as they were three months ago. It may be an unpopular pick at the moment, but I have a feeling that Hancock will surprise over the course of the next month and become a major player in this year's race.

Current predictions for Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
2. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
3. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

I'd like to call Lupita Nyong'o a lock for the win. My review of 12 Years a Slave should be posted by Friday, but I will say now that I just can't imagine a scenario where she doesn't come out the victor. But, this is the Academy, and they've had more than their fair share of surprising snubs. So, Nyong'o is no lock- but she is the frontrunner. Her biggest competition, however, is none other than Oprah Winfrey, who is not only a major star in a baity role but a role that will have the Weinstein's backing it. It's a tough call, but Oprah could swoop in and take the prize home. After that, it's not quite that competitive, but it's a fairly crowded field. Jennifer Lawrence has spent most of the second half of the year in the spotlight, and is arguably the biggest star in Hollywood at the moment. While there aren't any official reviews for American Hustle, prescreening buzz indicates that she is the highlight of the movie and the Academy clearly enjoys her work. She could certainly earn her third nomination this year. June Squibb has also been named the highlight of Nebraska by a number of critics, though the film isn't as Oscar friendly as some of the other movies this year, which could work against her. Some other possibilities include Julia Roberts, Octavia Spencer, Naomie Harris, Sarah Paulson, Margo Martindale and (maybe) Scarlett Johansson's voice work in Her. 

Current predictions for Best Supporting Actress:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
3. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
4. June Squibb, Nebraska
5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The butler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Best Supporting Actor has largely become a three man war between Jared Leto, Michael Fassbender and Tom Hanks. All three are virtually locks for a nomination. If I had to predict a winner, I'd bet on Leto, who is the heart and soul of Dallas Buyers Club (my review will be up by Saturday). But, as I mentioned before, Saving Mr. Banks will appeal to the Academy quite a bit, and Hanks is a legend who hasn't been in the spotlight for quite some time. Fassbender, meanwhile, could get the trophy if the Academy goes crazy for 12 Years a Slave, but his horrifying performance could cost him a few votes, not to mention the fact that he does not plan on campaigning for the win. He's bound to be nominated, but is the least likely of the three to win. After that, it's a bit of a guessing game. Barkhad Abdi could find his way into the Top 5, as could James Gandolfini or John Goodman, but that will largely depend on how they fare at the precursor award ceremonies. I'm also interested in seeing how critics respond to Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill once their respective movies premiere. I'm not anticipating much from Hill, but Cooper looks incredible in the American Hustle footage, making me think he could earn a second Oscar nomination. Finally, as a potential dark horse candidate, Woody Harrelson could sneak in there, but I have a feeling the supposedly dark and unfriendly Out of the Furnace will come and go in December a la Killing Them Softly. 

Current predictions for Best Supporting Actor:

1. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
2. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
4. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS:

Many seem to think that Sandra Bullock is a serious threat to Cate Blanchett for the win, but I don't buy it. Blanchett is still the clear frontrunner to me, and while Bullock may be nominated I can't see the Academy giving her a second Best Actress statuette so quickly, especially for a film that is largely impressive due to its special effects. The only potential upset that I could see happening is one that involves Judi Dench, who has been receiving raves for her work in Philomena. The Weinsteins have toppled frontrunners a number of times (Exhibit A: Streep beating out Viola Davis back in 2012), but we'll have to see if Dench can campaign hard enough over the course of the next few months. From there, we have four potential nominees: Amy Adams, Emma Thompson, Adele Exarchopolous and Meryl Streep. Having been nominated four times over the past seven years, Adams seems to be an Academy favorite, and with the help of David O. Russell, who has a talent for getting his actors nominated, she could find herself with a fifth bid for the win. Thompson, meanwhile, has been largely absent from awards season for quite some time, but she has a baity role in a feel-good film. The odds aren't exactly in Exarchopolous' favor at the moment, but Blue is the Warmest Color has some passionate supporters and she could find her way into the Top 5. And, finally, we have this to consider: can Streep get nominated for a film that isn't receiving positive reviews? I'm inclined to go with "yes" for now, but that could certainly change after the SAGs and Golden Globes. 

Current predictions for Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR:

As of right now, Chiwetel Ejiofor seems like the guy to beat.The buzz around one time major threat Robert Redford has begun to die down, largely due to the film's muted box office results. It will be interesting to see if Redford makes it into the lineups for any of the precursor awards and, if he doesn't, his chances for a Best Actor bid are slim to none. But, for now, he's certainly within the Top 5 biggest contenders. Also climbing the ranks is Matthew McConaughey, who will likely solidify his career transformation with his first Oscar nomination. Bruce Dern also appears to be a serious presence within the Top 5, especially since the Academy seems to love Alexander Payne. The biggest question amongst the Top 5, however, is if Tom Hanks can earn himself a nomination in both the Lead and Supporting category. It seems likely at the moment- but, once American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street premiers, that could change. On the outskirts of the Top 5 are Idris Elba, Joaquin Phoenix and Forest Whitaker. 

Current predictions for Best Actor:

1. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
5. Robert Redford, All is Lost

BEST PICTURE:

At this point, it feels redundant to explain my rankings for Best Picture as I've mentioned their standings throughout the article. So, here are my predictions for what will make the cut for the biggest award of the night. As of right now, I'm predicting nine films to be nominated:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Captain Phillips
4. Gravity
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Lee Daniels' The Butler
7. Philomena
8. Saving Mr. Banks
9. The Wolf of Wall Street

Early next month, I'll begin predicting the remaining categories in the field. I'll also be returning to reviewing full time, with reviews for 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyers Club to be posted over the weekend. 

In the meantime, follow me on Twitter and Letterboxd.