It's my favorite time of the moviegoing year- Oscar Season! While summer movies can be nice, Oscar season is (ideally) filled with critical darlings and films that will be fighting for a spot on a critic's Top 10 list- not the Top 10 at the domestic box office. And great movies are only the tip of the iceberg- predicting who will be nominated (and win) at the Academy Awards, which will be held on March 2nd, is a lot of fun on its own. And while I'll be getting into my Oscar predictions next week (starting Sunday, to be exact) I think it's time we break down what films we will be talking about this fall. So, without further adieu, let's kiss Summer 2013 goodbye and say hello to our new batch of Oscar contenders.
ALREADY A CONTENDER
Perhaps the biggest contender released thus far is Lee Daniels' The Butler, a film which, as I mentioned in my review, is the definition of Oscar bait. While I don't think it's a major contender for this season, you can believe a mega-producer like Harvey Weinstein's will certainly make sure the film gets noticed. It's best chance for a nomination is Oprah Winfrey, but it could make a dent in Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor and possibly Best Picture. Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, also has a chance at reaping some Oscar gold, primarily because of Cate Blanchett's brilliant lead performance. She's a major contender in the Best Actress category and the closest thing to a lock so far this year. Outside of Blanchett, however, the film isn't really a lock anywhere else. It certainly has a chance in Best Original Screenplay and potentially Best Picture, though I wouldn't bet too much on that just yet. Finally, Sundance sensation Fruitvale Station has the potential to be a Beasts of the Southern Wild-esque success, though that will really depend on if the Weinsteins can drum up more excitement for it late in the year. Still, it has a chance at Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and potentially Best Director if the producers can play their cards right. Finally, we come to the best reviewed film of the year so far- Before Midnight. While the trilogy has never been a favorite with the Academy, I think it's a very strong contender for Best Adapted Screenplay- and potentially more. But the real Oscar contenders will come out of the woodwork in September...
SEPTEMBER
September is, essentially, preseason for the Oscar contenders. While there aren't many films being released during this largely unpopular month at the box office, film festivals are being held throughout the world where many potential contenders will premiere, helping to give everybody a better idea of how each film will fare. But September is not without it's buzz-worthy releases, and the biggest from September is the latest film from Ron Howard.
Rush, an F1 racing drama chronicling the legendary rivalry between James Hunt and Niki Lauda, has the potential to be one of the biggest films of the season. While it's potential for box office success may come into question (is anyone in the US interested in F1?) the film was helmed by a former Oscar winner and tells a story that has the potential to put audiences on the edge of their seat. From a technical standpoint, the film could break out in everything from sound editing to makeup and even cinematography, while Best Picture is not entirely out of the question either. Best Director and Best Supporting Actor for Daniel Brühl (who's playing Niki Lauda) is also a possibility, though it's critical reception will obviously determine that.
The other high profile film from September is Denis Villeneuve's Prisoners, a thriller starring Hugh Jackman that will be playing at the Toronto International Film Festival next week. While I wouldn't call the film a major contender, it certainly has the chance to break out in a few categories. Namely, cinematography, as legendary ten time nominee Roger Deakins is the director of photography for the film. The film also boasts an impressive cast of Oscar nominees/winners- Hugh Jackman, Viola Davis, Jake Gylenhaal, Melissa Leo and Terrence Howard- so completely ruling the film out in those categories would be foolish. Though, based on the trailer, the only actor I can seriously see competing for a slot is Hugh Jackman. Though that could all change once we start getting reviews for the movie over the next few days.
The final major contender from the film is one that I don't think will be as widely seen as the last two mentioned. Salinger is a major contender for Best Documentary and one that is always generating a lot of buzz. The film, which takes a look at legendary but reclusive author J.D. Salinger, will take a look at the impact The Catcher in the Rye had (and possibly still has) on society, while also looking into the mysterious author's secret life. But perhaps most surprising is the revelation that five yet-to-be published books from the author will be released to the public shortly. With the Weinsteins at the helm, Salinger is bound to be one of the most talked about documentaries of the fall and will no doubt be a serious threat for the Best Documentary award come Oscar night.
Outside of those three films, however, there isn't all that much to anticipate in regards to Oscar movies. Personally, I can't wait to see Joseph Gordon Levitt's directorial debut, Don Jon, but the only shot that movie has is in Best Original Screenplay and even that's a long shot. And can we, perhaps, predict Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 for a Best Animated Feature slot? I don't think it's a total lock, but it certainly has the potential. But, September will, for the most part, be a quiet month, the calm before the storm that is October rolls in...
OCTOBER:
While November and December are typically the biggest months for Oscar movies, it seems like producers are trying to pack as many films as possible over the course of the next three months. So, October is surprisingly busy this year with a number of major movies on the horizon. The biggest film of the month? Well, it's a tough call, but 12 Years a Slave seems like the movie with the most potential for Oscar glory.
While Steve McQueen's last film was snubbed by the Academy, 12 Years a Slave is within the Academy's ballpark and it's highly unlikely that the Academy will once again ignore one of the most buzzed about young directors working today. The story of Solomon Northup, a free man who was kidnapped and sold into slavery, is a powerful one and if McQueen delivers another critical darling we could be looking at one of the biggest movies of the year. The film could be a major contender in many different categories. Best Picture is an obvious one, as is Best Actor for Chiwetel Ejiofor. But what else? After being snubbed for his last collaboration with McQueen, Michael Fassbender has a chance to score his first ever nomination in the Supporting Actor category, while Alfre Woodard and newcomer Lupita Nyong'o could make a dent in the Supporting Actress category. Adapted Screenplay, a plethora of technical awards and Best Original Score are also possibilities and, if the film lives up to its full potential, Steve McQueen could find himself a nominee for Best Director. While the film opens in limited release on October 18, we'll start hearing reviews over the next few days as the film will be featured at TIFF and (possibly) Telluride.
Moving away from historical epics and into the realm of technical achievements, Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity could be this year's Life of Pi- a visual marvel that absolutely dominates the technical categories and makes a valiant effort for Best Picture. Having recently premiered at the Venice Film Festival to near universal raves, the Sandra Bullock/George Clooney vehicle will almost definitely find itself nominated for Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects and Best Sound Editing/Mixing, but why stop there? Alfonso Cuarón could follow in the shoes of James Cameron and Ang Lee and find himself a Best Director nominee. As for Sandra Bullock, I wouldn't be surprised if the film's technical merits outshine what is essentially her one-woman show, but she stands a decent shot at a nomination. And, finally, Best Picture seems likely at this time- though the critical reception of this year's other films could make or break that.
Next we have Paul Greengrass's Captain Phillips, a film I can't quite place my finger on. It looks good, but there is something... off about it. As for its awards prospects I feel it may be too similar to last year's Zero Dark Thirty to really be in contention, especially since that film underperformed last year when all was said and done. But awards for cinematography, editing and possibly Best Actor are somewhat likely- though I think Mr. Hanks has a much better chance with December's Saving Mr. Banks. Another film I'm having trouble prediciting is J.C. Chandor's All Is Lost. After premiering at Cannes the film received unanimously positive reviews but I really don't see this appealing to the Academy at all, especially since they have a big budgeted picture with a similar theme being released this year (the aforementioned Gravity). But the legendary Robert Redford is a very strong contender for Best Actor and, if the film performs well once it opens, I wouldn't be surprised to see it sneak in.
There are some other possible contenders set for release that month- While it will be unable to contend for best Foreign Language Film, the Palme d'or winner Blue is the Warmest Color is steadily building buzz around Adéle Exarchopoulos, the film's lead. But is a French, three hour long love story really up the Academy's alley? Only time will tell. The Counselor has a chance in Best Original Screenplay and a slim shot at getting a Best Supporting Actress nom for Cameron Diaz, though I don't think either scenario is all that likely. Meanwhile, indie flick Kill Your Darlings will only get a nomination if it breaks out upon it's domestic release- which I don't really see happening. And buzz for the JFK assassination drama Parkland and the Wikileaks thriller The Fifth Estate feel largely muted, though that could change once they premiere at TIFF. But, for the most part, this month belongs to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, which will lead into a competitive November.