Betting on the Box Office: Stark vs. Fitzgerald vs. Perry

After an incredible opening weekend, the summer movie season marches on with The Great Gatsby and Peeples both trying to get some attention from audiences that have already seen Iron Man 3 or don't plan on seeing it. But how much can an adaptation of a beloved literary classic make at the superhero dominated box office? Or a romantic comedy from a niché producer? Let's see-

The Great Gatsby (dir. Baz Luhrmann)

When Warner Bros. first moved The Great Gatsby from it's Christmas release to the second week of May I was ready to call it a flop. But, a few months later, I've changed my tune considerably. In fact, I can really see the film being a success at the box office. Or, at the very least, I predict a solid opening weekend.

Anticipation for The Great Gatsby seems to be quite high thanks to a very impressive and effective marketing campaign that emphasizes the film as a fun, exciting and visually stunning film with a romance that will appeal to the ladies and a male lead that can be counted as one of the few box office draws left. Granted, it won't have a major opening, but an opening north of $30 million and nearing $40 is very likely. The film is both effective counter marketing but has enough spectacle to it to draw some of the crowd that has already seen Iron Man but is looking for more visual thrills. Leo is also bound to get a bunch of people in the seats, from a variety of demographics. And their is the 3D ticket prices to figure in. I'm going to pinpoint it at $38 million. Meanwhile, I think word of mouth will have a lot to do with how high the film flies, but I can definitely see it grossing over $100 million, settling around $115 million.

I will be seeing Gatsby on Saturday and you can expect my review on Sunday morning.

Peeples (dir. Tina Gordon Chism)

I actually forgot that Peeples was being released this Friday. Now, I had no intention of seeing it anyway, but I do consider that somewhat of a bad omen for its box office prospects. Which is a shame since I really like the leads. But the film isn't bringing anything new to the table, and it can't really count as counter programming since Gatsby is already falling into that category. Still, Peeples can't cost too much so it's bound to make a pretty penny. But, I don't think it'll make much noise during its theatrical run.

Many people are using previous Tyler Perry films as comparables but I see the film performing more along the lines of 2011's Jumping the Broom. Both films were being aimed at the same demographic, both attempted to serve as counter programming, and both revolved around weddings. But, there are bigger films out this year compared to May 2011, so I'm going to bet for an opening weekend a bit lower- $13 million to be exact. As for total gross, I'm going to bet something around $35 million. That may be a bit low, but I don't think it'll get much higher than that. There are just too many big movies out right now, and it's too easy for a film with limited box office potential to get lost in the shuffle.

Finally, I see Iron Man 3 having a drop somewhere between Iron Man 2 and The Avengers. So, I'm predicting it to be number one with around $73 million.

Have a good weekend, everybody! And you can expect my review of The Great Gatsby Sunday morning.