Betting on the Box Office: Iron Man 3 Set to Kick Off the Summer

I've been trying to find some way to incorporate box office predictions and results into the blog other than merely reporting the facts. Let's face it- that's kind of boring, and there are already great sites like Box Office Mojo for that. So, I'm going to introduce Betting on the Box Office- my weekly column (to be posted on Thursdays) that will offer in depth analysis and give a prediction for how the new releases will do on its opening weekend and throughout its entire run. So, let's get started...this should be an easy week, since there is only one release:

Iron Man 3 (dir. Shane Black)

Let's face it: Iron Man 3 will be huge. Hell, it already is huge. The film has already grossed $300 million at the worldwide box office... that's insane. So, needless to say, the film will have a huge opening weekend and could end up the highest grossing film of the year. But, just how bit will it be?

I don't see Iron Man 3 reaching an opening as big as The Avengers did last summer. $200 million is just too high. But, Iron Man 2 only grossed $128 million during its opening weekend... that's way too low. Iron Man 3 has to break $150 million- it has the buzz, the built in audience and a large fan base. How about $160 million? The Dark Knight Rises, which was one of the most anticipated films of last summer, grossed a huge $160 million. Does Iron Man 3 have the same amount of anticipation? Maybe not... but it does have 3D to figure in. So, I think it's flying well about $160. In fact, I'm going to bet that Iron Man 3 will have the second highest opening weekend of all time with a gross... $180 million.

But how much will Iron Man 3 gross in the long run? Again, I can't see it matching The Avengers' final tally. It's an event movie for sure. But I just don't think that it's that big of an event. For this, I feel the best comparison is The Dark Knight Rises. Iron Man 3 feels like a finale (even though, let's face it, it probably isn't) and the franchise has a lot of loyal followers that will be checking the film out throughout the summer. Granted, Iron Man 3 will face much more competition than The Dark Knight Rises did, what with Star Trek and Fast and Furious films on the way, but I still think a final tally around $450 million feels like a safe prediction.

Just how big will Iron Man 3 really be? We'll find out tomorrow, and I'll be back Sunday with a quick recap to see how I did with my predictions.