If you frequented my blog before and during the Oscars, then you already know I view the awards season as a sports fan would view a season of football, basketball, etc. In my opinion, Oscar season doesn't really get into full swing until September, and there is no reason to even try and make predictions before then because you're really just grasping at straws. Once we get to the fall, there will be footage from almost all the potential Oscar flicks, and many will be making their way to the various film festivals to help build buzz. So, for me to even try and think of who could be taking home Academy Awards next March would be a waste of my time. But, what's wrong with some early
speculation?
Keeping with the sports comparison, the Cannes film festival is like pre-season. Many of these films won't end up competing at the Academy Awards, largely because many of these films aren't quite Oscar fare. They tend to be more artsy and edgier. But some of these films are bound to show up next March at the big show. Last year, the Oscar nominated
Amour and
The Master both premiered at Cannes, while
Beasts of the Southern Wild also competed. In 2011, a little film called
The Artist premiered. Obviously, it went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So, any of the films on the recently announced Cannes lineup could go on to be nominated, or even win, this winter. So, let's get to speculating-
The film I feel most confident in saying will be a contender next fall is Alexander Payne's
Nebraska, which will be part of the main competition at Cannes. The film follows a man (Will Forte) and his alcoholic father (Bruce Dern) as they drive from Montana to Nebraska to claim a million dollar prize. Payne's last two flicks,
The Descendants and
Sideways both took home Best Adapted Screenplay in their respective years, while also competing in a number of big categories including Best Picture. While the film's reception at Cannes will certainly determine just how much of a contender it will be, this could be a major player in terms of writing awards, acting awards and, obviously, Best Picture this fall. Personally,
Nebraska is one of my most anticipated films of the year and I'm eagerly anticipating the first reviews for it.
Meanwhile, the Coen Brother's next film
Inside Llewyn Davis will be screened and compete for the Palme d'Or. The film is definitely one of the most anticipated at the fest, and the Coens have been on a roll as of late with critical darlings and Academy favorites. Obviously,
No Country for Old Men won Best Picture, while
A Serious Man and
True Grit were both nominated for the big award, as well as many others. The Coens have certainly become favorites amongst Oscar voters, and the reception for their next film, which will follow a folk singer in the 1960s, will determine just how much of a player it will be in the fall. We could be talking about one of the biggest films of the year, or a movie destined for cult status (a la early Coens work like
Raising Arizona and
The Big Lebowski). I will admit to not being a huge fan of the Coens, but I am looking forward to checking out
Inside Llewyn Davis and like the footage I've seen so far.
I also think it's foolish to count out the French film
The Past, which could be an underdog later this year. Asghar Farhadi's follow up to his universally hailed Oscar winner
A Seperation,
The Past follows a marriage between a French woman (
The Artist's Berenice Bejo) and an Iranian man (
A Prophet's Tahar Rahim) and what happens when the man decides to return to his homeland.
A Seperation won Best Foreign Language Film in 2011, and assuming the Academy's incredibly bizarre rules don't prevent
The Past from being nominated, we could be looking at a front runner. That film was also nominated for Best Original Screenplay (losing to
Midnight in Paris), while Berenice Bejo was nominated for Best Supporting Actress (losing to Octavia Spencer). We shouldn't count them out from this year just yet.
The two films screening out of competition seem like huge possibilities as well. J.C. Chandor was nominated for Best Original Screenplay for
Margin Call and his follow up,
All Is Lost could be a huge contender for this year. The film, which is about one man (Robert Redford) and his journey to survive in the wilderness, could find Chandor getting another nomination for writing, or maybe his first in the Best Director or Best Picture categories. And with a legend like Redford at the center of the story, I wouldn't be surprised if the Academy decides to honor him with a nomination for Best Actor. The film sounds ambitious enough to fail completely, but if it succeeds at Cannes then anticipation for the film will rise considerably. Also being shown out of competition is Guillaume Canet's
Blood Ties, which features an impressive enough cast (Clive Owen, Billy Cruddup, Mila Kunis, Marion Cotillard) to get me excited, and have me think it could get a nomination or two.
There are a few other films that seem like possible contenders as well. With the Weinsteins backing it,
Fruitvale Station will no doubt be talked about throughout the fall. The film, which is based on the true story of a man named Oscar who was shot and killed by two police officers despite being innocent of any crime, already had a great reception at Sundance and is shaping up to be quite a hit. The Weinstein's also have
The Immigrant, previously titled
Lowlife, up their sleeves. I've heard great things about Marion Cotillard's performance as a European immigrant who enters the world of burlesque to help her ailing sister, but I am a bit worried by the fact that the Weinsteins haven't put it on their fall schedule. And, while it's not an Oscar film per se, Steven Soderbergh's
Behind the Candelabra will have it's premiere at the festival before airing on HBO. The film, which Hollywood studios deemed "too gay" to produce, stars Michael Douglas as Liberace and will probably be huge at the Emmys later this year.
But I don't want to imply that I'm only excited for the Oscar films that are premiering there. In fact, the film I'm most interested in is
The Bling Ring, which will be screening in the Un Certain Regard category. I don't expect much Oscar glory for the film, but it is my second most anticipated film of the year and a movie I can't wait to check out. I also am dying to see Nicolas Winding Refn's
Only God Forgives, which I get more excited for with each new
trailer and
poster. If
Drive was largely ignored by the Academy (excluding a sound nomination), I can't imagine this flick getting any notice from Oscar voters. It looks extremely violent and a bit strange to say the least. But I can't wait to check it out. You've also got a new Roman Polanski film, an
As I Lay Dying adaptation by James Franco, and some cool looking foreign flicks premiering at the fest.
I won't be attending Cannes, unfortunately, but I will be covering how other critics respond to the various films at the fest. Their are a lot of great films premiering there, and you can see the full lineup
here (thanks to
Rope of Silicon, a fantastic site to check out this May if you want great Cannes coverage). As for Oscar buzz, I will be going into full awards season mode during the first week of September, where I will devote six days to predicting the Big Six awards. From then on I'll be updating my predictions about twice a month, adding more categories as time goes on. But, that's not for a while. In the meantime, let's enjoy the summer movie season and, of course, live vicariously through the critics and bloggers attending Cannes. At least that's what I'll be doing
**Please note I am posting this in lieu of a Top Story Tonight, primarily because it is the biggest news in the film community today. Top Story tonight will return tomorrow**
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