It's almost Oscar night, and what an Oscar night it will be. This has been one of the most unpredictable award seasons in ages and thus, it's an incredibly difficult year to make predictions. So, while I feel confident enough to post these predictions and make them my final bets, I also feel quite safe in admitting that I could be entirely wrong on a number of these categories. But, I'm hoping for the best.
I won't spend too much time analyzing my choices, as I've already done quite a bit of that prior to the nomination announcements. But, I'll still give you my thoughts. You can also check out my Top 10 of 2012 and my personal picks for this award season, for which I will name my personal choices for wins as well as nominees, on Oscar night, February 24th. Until then, here are my predictions:
Best Picture: Argo
Analysis: An easy pick to make at this time, as Argo has swept just about every major award show this year. Choosing something else would be a mistake. There could be an upset I suppose, but I think it'd be a mistake to bet against this movie.
Best Actor in a Leading Role: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Analysis: Again, an easy pick. None of the other nominees have anywhere near the momentum that DDL has.
Best Actress in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Analysis: With the Zero Dark Thirty buzz dying down, it seems like Lawrence is the clear front runner, especially with the Academy's obvious love for the film, its sudden surge at the box office, the Weinsteins, and the fact that it's only real competition is Emmanuelle Riva, who has only a slight change in my opinion.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Analysis: A category with no real front runner, it seems like Tommy Lee Jones lost much of his buzz and I can't see the Academy giving Waltz a win for a Tarantino film so quickly after winning for Basterds, especially as his post win career hasn't exactly been stellar. De Niro's a legend making what's essentially a comeback in SLP and with the Weinsteins behind him, anything could happen.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Anne Hatahway, Les Miserables
Analysis: The easiest category to predict.
Best Achievement in Directing: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Analysis: The risk? Huge. But hear me out: there is no front runner, Spielberg has already won twice, and I truly believe that Silver Linings Playbook is the film we'd be predicting for the win if it wasn't for Argo. This is the category I'm most expecting to be incorrect with, but there is no front runner in this category. A shot in the dark, but I'm taking it.
Best Original Screenplay: Amour
Analysis: The Academy clearly loved Amour and if it's going to win something other than Best Foreign Language Film, it's going to be for screenplay. The only film I can see beating it is Django Unchained, but I'm gonna give Amour the slight edge.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Analysis: In my opinion, Argo doesn't deserve this award at all but I really can't see another film beating it.
Best Cinematography: Skyfall
Analysis: It's between this and Life of Pi, but Skyfall got the ASC award and the fact that Deakins has been nominated for nine other films and hasn't won has to mean something, right?
Best Production Design: Les Miserables
Analysis: A hard category to predict, and I strongly considered going with Anna Karenina, but Les Miserables feels like a more "Oscar friendly" pick.
Best Film Editing: Argo
Analysis: This one seems like a lock to me. Honestly, I can't imagine another film winning.
Best Sound Editing: Life of Pi
Analysis: Life of Pi reminds me quite a bit of Hugo, which took home this award last year. That's really all my reasoning for this impossible to predict category.
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Analysis: Musicals tend to win this category, so I felt like going with a musical would be a smart idea.
Best Original Song: "Skyfall" by Adele
Analysis: And yet another award show will praise Adele. Go for that EGOT, girl.
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Analysis: Many Oscar sites are pegging this score for the win and considering I didn't really care about any of the scores nominated (really, Academy, leaving off Beasts of the Southern Wild and Cloud Atlas was a bit of a mistake) this seems like a safe bet.
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Analysis: At this point, I'd consider it almost guaranteed.
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Analysis: When it comes to costume design, the Academy loves period pieces and Anna Karenina's costumes are extravagant and perfect for Oscar love.
Best Hair & Makeup: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Analysis: Because out of all the films nominated, it's makeup is the most noticeable.
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugar Man
Analysis: I was caught between choosing this or How to Survive a Plague, but there seems to be more appreciation for Sugar Man, so I went with it.
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Analysis: I mean, it's pretty obvious.
Best Animated Film: Wreck-it-Ralph
Analysis: Truthfully, I could see Brave winning it but my gut is telling me to stick with Ralph. Fingers crossed!
Best Animated Short: Paper Man
Analysis: True story: I saw this when I saw Wreck-it-Ralph and preferred it to Ralph. And, also, I'm going off other people's predictions and everyone seems to be backing this one.
Best Documentary Short: Open Heart
Analysis: Because Golden Derby told me to.
Best Live Action Short: Curfew
Analysis: See above.
And there you have it, folks! My official Oscar predictions. Follow me on Twitter to catch my live tweeting on Oscar night as we see how right (or horribly wrong) I am. And don't forget to check out my Top 10 of 2012 and my personal wins for the year in the afternoon on February 24th!
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