BEST PICTURE:
THE LOCKS: Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
WHY ARE THEY LOCKS?: Argo is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year and with a plot Academy voters will love and a major backing from mainstream audiences, it's a major threat to the rest of the year's nominees for the award. Les Miserables, meanwhile, is one of the most buzzed about films of the year and Universal has a lot of faith in the film. It's most certainly getting in there, and could win it all. Lincoln is said to be a return to form for Spielberg after a few duds, but if even one of his duds (War Horse) could get a BP nomination, one of his best will most certainly fit in there. Finally, Silver Linings Playbook is swooping in this Thanksgiving and will most definitely have critics and audiences eating it up. All four films will most definitely be nominated, and stand a good chance at winning as well.
FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Django Unchained, Flight, Hitchcock, Life of Pi, The Impossible, The Master, The Sessions
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY? It's an intense fight for the remaining slots, and it's very tough to see what will actually make the cut. If I were a betting man, I'd say that Django Unchained and Life of Pi would most definitely make the cut, but I think it's too early to call either a lock. Flight, The Sessions and Hitchcock could have what it takes, but both feel like acting showcases as opposed to true Best Picture nominees. On the outside looking in are The Impossible, which will largely depend on mainstream critics, and The Master which, I feel, may have lost it's steam in this category.
POSSIBLE DARK HORSES: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
DO THEY HAVE A CHANCE?: At this point I doubt that Moonrise Kingdom has much of a chance, which is a shame as it's one of my favorites this year so far. At most, it could be this year's Midnight in Paris, but there are many more serious contenders compared to last year. Beasts of the Southern Wild has a slightly better push, but it will need a major end of year push from other award circuits. I have no clue if a positive critical reception could impact Zero Dark Thirty, as it may be viewed as simply a re-do of The Hurt Locker. And despite rave reviews, Amour has the massive hurdle of being a foreign film before getting a nomination.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, I'D PREDICT:
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Miserables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- The Master
- Silver Linings Playbook
THE LOCKS: John Hawkes, The Sessions; Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln; Denzel Washington, Flight
WHY ARE THEY LOCKED: Hawkes has the critical backing to get him in the Top 5, not to mention that his role as a paralyzed man in an uplifting dramadey has Oscar written all over it. As for Lewis and Washington, they are Academy favorites and are receiving raves from virtually every critic. There is no way they aren't getting nominated.
FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock; Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables; Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY?: Phoenix is very close to a lock, but his last minute comments on the Academy and the loss of steam for the film will hurt his chances. It's a tough race this year. Cooper, Jackman and Hopkins are all interchangeable at this point for a nomination. Hopkins is, obviously, a veteran, but Cooper and Jackman are in films that will likely receive stronger reviews.
POTENTIAL DARK HORSES: Matt Damon, Promised Land; Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY?: For Damon, it's way too early to tell if he even has a chance. Promised Land hasn't been seen by anyone, as far as I'm concerned, but being reunited with Gus Van Sant seems like a reason to at least get a bit of buzz, right? Same goes for Brad Pitt. Killing Them Softly did the festival circuit, but will it impress mainstream critics and, more importantly, the Academy? This looks like this year's Drive, but you never know. Pitt is a big star and having the Weinsteins in your corner is always a good thing.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, I'D PREDICT:
- John Hawkes, The Sessions
- Anthony Hopkins, Hithcock
- Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
- Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
- Denzel Washington, Flight
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
THE LOCKS: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
WHY ARE THEY LOCKED?: Lawrence has received nothing short of raves since the film's premiere and many are predicting her to win. If she doesn't get a nomination, it'll be one of the biggest surprises in recent memory.
FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone; Keira Knightely, Anna Karenina; Helen Mirren, Hitchcock; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour; Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts, The Impossible
WHAT ARE THERE CHANCES?: Here's the thing about the Best Actress race this year: it's not a competitive category, but virtually everyone and their mother have a chance at being nominated. It's a tough race to really nail down. The closest to a lock, other than Lawrence, is Mirren, with Wallis a close third. But the other two slots? It's anyone's game. I'd say either Cotillard or Riva have a chance, but only one will make the cut. I just can't imagine the Academy nominating two actresses in foreign films this year. Cotillard is the biggest star, but Riva is in the more acclaimed film. Not to mention that Rust & Bone was not submitted for Best Foreign Film this year. Watts, Knightely and Chastain all have a chance, but the reception to their film will really impact their chances.
POTENTIAL DARK HORSES: Maggie Smith, Quartet
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY?: If Watts, Knightely and Chastain are all passed over, then Smith will certainly get in their. But I think she has the better chance in another category.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, I'D PREDICT:
- Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
- Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
- Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
- Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
- Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
THE LOCKS: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln; Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
WHY ARE THEY LOCKED?: Jones stands a good chance at winning the award, actually. His performance is considered, by many, the best thing about Lincoln. Not to mention he has veteran status. Speaking of veteran status, De Niro's performance is being considered his best since Cape Fear and I'm sure the Academy will love to honor De Niro yet again.
FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Alan Arkin, Argo; Russell Crowe, Les Miserables; Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained; Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
WHAT ARE THERE CHANCES?: Personally, I don't see the buzz for Arkin. He's very good in Argo, don't get me wrong, but what makes him stand out amongst the rest of the cast? I don't know. DiCaprio and Hoffman, I feel, are very close to being locks in this competitive category. Still, Django's critical reception will impact DiCaprio's chances, and Hoffman could have lost steam at this point. Many are predicting Arkin for the fifth slot, but I could see Crowe creeping in their instead.
POTENTIAL DARK HORSES: Joel Edgerton, Zero Dark Thirty; Hal Holbrook, Promised Land; Tom Holland, The Impossible
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY?: Not very likely, but you never know. It's too early to count them out at this point.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, I PREDICT:
- Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
- Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
- Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
- Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
THE LOCKS: Sally Field, Lincoln; Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables; Helen Hunt, The Sessions
WHY ARE THEY LOCKED?: Hathaway has been locked since the release of the trailer. It's, honestly, one of the most buzzed about performances in a long time. As for Field and Hunt, I think they are both locked at this point. The praise for their film is massive, and the actresses have both won Oscars already. They are in.
FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Amy Adams, The Master; Samantha Barks, Les Miserables; Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Scarlet Johansson, Hitchcock; Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
WHAT ARE THERE CHANCES?: Adams is very close to a lock, but I'm just not ready to claim it simply because there are two buzzed about performances that could swoop in. No one has seen Samantha Barks yet, but her role in Les Miserables is dramatic and powerful. As for Johansson, this is her best chance at an Oscar nomination since her debut, and I have a feeling that she could get in if Hitchcock takes off. As for the ladies from The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, I'd say Smith has the better chance, but Dench could get it. It seems like the Academy might like to honor the film though.
POTENTIAL DARK HORSES: Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty; Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY?: Some early buzz indicates we may be talking about Ehle once Zero Dark Thirty premiers, but she's a relative unknown and it'll be tough playing with major Oscar players like Hathaway, Hunt and Field. As for Weaver, she could get in their if the Academy embraces Silver Linings Playbook, but her role is somewhat small compared to her costars.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, I PREDICT:
- Amy Adams, The Master
- Sally Field, Lincoln
- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
- Helen Hunt, The Sessions
- Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:
THE LOCKS: Ben Affleck, Argo; Tom Hopper, Les Miserables; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook; Steven Spielberg
WHY ARE THEY LOCKED?: Simple: these are the four biggest Oscar films of the year, and all four seem like locks at this point. If one doesn't make it, it'll be O. Russell, but I still can't imagine him not making it in.
FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Ang Lee, Life of Pi; Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
WHAT ARE THERE CHANCES?: These two will most likely be duking it out for the final nomination slot. I'd give Lee the upper hand since his film is right up the Academy's alley, but if Django Unchained is a huge hit, he could make it in.
POTENTIAL DARK HORSES: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master; Juan Antonio Bandoya, The Impossible; Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty; Michael Haneke, Amour; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY?: Honestly, I can't imagine any of them getting in there. But, who knows, anything could happen I suppose. I'd love to see Anderson get in their, and a lot of critics will likely support Haneke. So, we'll see.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, I'D PREDICT:
- Ben Affleck, Argo
- Tom Hopper, Les Miserables
- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
- David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
- Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
We are getting closer and closer to the Oscars and, frankly, I couldn't be more excited. I'm massively behind on reviews, and I'm sorry for that, but I'm planning on churning them all out between tomorrow, Thursday and Friday and will hopefully post an awards season calendar by next weekend! Stay tuned and make your predictions!
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