Early October Oscar Bracket Update

With September over, there hasn't been too much change to my Oscar brackets but enough to warrant another post. This month sees the release of quite a few Oscar movies, so it will be interesting to see what we'll be talking about by the end of the month, in terms of nomination predictions. Anyway, here are my current Oscar predictions:

REMEMBER- this is a ranking as to how likely a film is to be nominated in the category, with one meaning the most likely. Once we get later into Oscar season (mid November- early December) I will begin posting definitive Oscar nomination predictions. I've also stopped my rankings at 15 for all categories.
Also, an update: I will be putting an asterisk (*) next to the films/actors/writers/directors I'd consider locks. 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo *
2. Silver Linings Playbook *
3. Les Miserables *
4. Lincoln *
5. The Master *
6. Life of Pi *
7. Django Unchained
8. Hitchcock
9. The Impossible
10. Beats of the Southern Wild
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Amour
13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
14. Moonrise Kingdom
15. Anna Karenina

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: The first major change to the brackets is the removal of Trouble With the Curve, which received largely negative reviews and didn't exactly set the box office on fire. I can't imagine it receiving any nominations, which is a shame considering it might be the last time we see Clint Eastwood on screen. My second major change is the addition of Hitchcock at number 8... I had no idea the film was even ready for release, and considering they are dropping it right in the middle of Oscar season could mean good things. But, I'm still waiting for a trailer to be sure. I've also moved Beasts of the Southern Wild down a few slots due to it's ineligibility at the SAG awards, which could hurt it, but I still feel it has the best shot out of all the "wild card" predictions.  In terms of locks, I'd consider my top six locks in the category, unless the ones which have not premiered yet (Les Miserables, Lincoln and Life of Pi disappoint). 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: 

1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master *
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln *
3. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock 
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Denzel Washington, Flight
8. Matt Damon, Promised Land
9. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
10. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
11. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: There are two nominees I'd consider almost guarantees at a nomination- Phoenix, who I think will win, and Day Lewis, who will most definitely be nominated. After that, we have a couple of great actors fighting for the remaining three slots. Notably, I've removed Eastwood from the list for the same reason I took Trouble With the Curve off my Best Picture bracket, while I also moved Pitt down a few slots due to some murmurs I heard that he will be campaigned in the Supporting category. Until I hear anything official, I won't remove him from my list. I also added two new actors, most notably Anthony Hopkins for Hithcock, a role that has Oscar bait written all over it. If it's as good as it could be, he's a shoo-in for a nomination. I also added Matt Damon for the drama Promised Land, which looks mediocre to me but could surprise and be an Oscar contender.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook *
2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina 
3. Hellen Mirren, Hitchcock
4. Maggie Smith, Quartet
5. Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
9. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Best Actress is, by far, the most difficult category to predict for me. There is only one guaranteed lock at this point, which is Lawrence, and everything below her is basically a guessing game. I was ready to have Wallis ruled as a lock as well, but I can't help but be worried by her ineligibility at the Screen Actors Guild award from affecting her chances. I also removed Viola Davis for Won't Back Down and Amy Adams for Trouble With the Curve, while also lowering Marion Cotillard a few notches due to that film not being chosen as the Foreign Language submission for France this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: 

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained *
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master *
3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
6. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
7. David Strathaim, Lincoln
8. Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
9. Bryan Cranston, Argo
10. William H. Macy, The Sessions
11. Joseph Gordon Levitt, Lincoln
12. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
13. Tom Holland, The Impossible
14. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
15. Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: With my top three seeming like locks at this point, and the top 5 staying the same, Supporting Actor remains the easiest category to predict- for now.  However there are a number of other actors who could sneak in. With the trailer for Lincoln dropping, it appears clear that Joseph Gordon Levitt, David Strathaim and especially Tommy Lee Jones could sneak in their. It also seems like Hal Holbrook stands Promised Land's best chance for a nomination, while increased buzz for Argo lead me to pushing Cranston up a few spots. But still, I feel pretty confident in my top five at the moment. I also moved Dwight Henry down due to the Beasts/SAG controversy. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables *
2. Amy Adams, The Master *
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
10. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
12. Frances McDormand, Promised Land
13. Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
14. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Finally, a category without many major changes.There are, however, two major additions- Scarlett Johansson and Frances McDormand! I also moved Sally Field up a slot after seeing the Lincoln trailer, but still feel like the locks in the category- Adams and especially Hathaway- stand a good chance at winning. 

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo *
2. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables *
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
8. Benh Zaitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild 

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Nothing really worth talking about- the only reason I bumped Hopper up a slot was because of that incredible behind the scenes look at Les Miserables that makes me thought (briefly) that it could take home the award for Best Picture. I'll wait for the premiere before calling that, but for now we'll see. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master *
2. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained *
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdon
5. Matt Damon and John Krasinski, Promised Land
6. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths
7. Rian Johnson, Looper
8. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
9. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Basically, I don't know what I was thinking putting Amour so low on the list last time. And I added Promised Land. But other than the locks, I feel like this is anyone's game.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Chris Terrio, Argo *
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
3. William Nicholson, Les Miserables
4. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln
5. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
6. Lucy Alibar and Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. David Magee, Life of Pi
8. John J. McLaughlin, Hitchcock
9. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
10. Ronald Harwood, Quartet

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved The Sessions up a slot due to the same exact SAG controversy I've been talking about since Best Picture. I also added Hitchcock the list due to that film's sudden addition the schedule.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Frankenweenie
3. ParaNorman
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. From Up on Poppy Hill
6. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
7. Brave

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved Rise of the Guardians up a few slots due to how many other Oscar prediction sites have it on their list. Still, this is a tough category to predict since we've only seen three of these films. I can't even truly say what I'd consider a lock at this point.

FOR THE NEXT UPDATE: My next update will be at the end of the month, after a number of Oscar films hit theaters and the New York Film Festival takes place. Stay tuned and leave comments or your own predictions!