Post TIFF Oscar Brackets!

With Venice, Telluride and the Toronto Film Festival out of the way, Oscar season has become significantly easier to predict, but still remains a bit of a challenge. We won't know what the Academy will eat up and what the Academy won't care about until the films hit theaters and we see just how much of a dent they'll make. Everything from box office numbers to mainstream critic reviews could have a say. Some films on these rosters will be deleted, and maybe a few will be added. Not to mention that three of the biggest Oscar films of the year, Les Miserables, Lincoln and Life of Pi have yet to be seen by anybody! And their are some dark horses out their, as well as independent films where a lot will depend on just how much of a marketing push they'll receive. So while I stand by these predictions, and feel that a few of them are locks at this point, it's still a very rough draft of what will eventually become a final roster. More categories will be added as the year goes on.

Just remember- the potential nominees are listed in order of which I believe they'll receive a nomination (1 being most likely, and the last number being the least likely.) I also stopped the ranking at 15 per category. Obviously, the top five are my predictions for what will be nominated at this point, with the exception of Best Picture which, for now, stops at 10. Leave some comments as to what you expect will rule this Oscar season!


BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo (Glowing reviews out of Telluride and TIFF have made this film quite the frontrunner for early Oscar season, in a neck and neck race with...)
2. Silver Linings Playbook (The film won the TIFF People Choice Award, the same award which The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionare received before winning Best Picture. That put this critical darling in good company.)
3. Les Miserables (This looks like the biggest and best of this year's Oscar pictures, even if it seems doubtful that a Tom Hopper film will win again after The King's Speech two years ago.)
4. Lincoln (It's Spielberg and a biopic, it's obviously going to generate Oscar buzz, but it's overall quality may cost it a nomination much like J. Edgar.)
5. The Master (It's being called challenging and dark, which are qualities the Academy don't usually like in a movie, but the extremely positive reviews from some critics seems too loud to ignore)
6. Life of Pi (Based on the trailer, Life of Pi could be quite the contender, reminding me of Hugo from last year. But, the film also looks like it could be too ambitious, which could hurt it's chances.)
7. Django Unchained (This could be one of Tarantino's biggest hits with the Academy, but it's also destined to be surrounded by controversy, which could hurt it.)
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (The indie hit of the year, Beasts of the Southern Wild should be locked for a nomination, assuming it maintains this momentum throughout awards season.)
9. The Impossible (It's positive reviews are extremely positive, and it's negative reviews are vicious. It looks like a major 'Oscar movie' though, and if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close received a nomination, this could too.)
10. Zero Dark Thirty (We, simply, know too little about this film to form a solid opinion on it's Oscar chances.)
11. Amour (Foreign films are always tricky to predict, regardless of how positive the reviews are.)
12. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (I sense the Academy is over the LOTR franchise, and the movie doesn't seem as epic as it's predecessor's based upon the trailer.)
13. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson has never had much sway amongst Academy voters, but if any film is going to change that, this movie will.)
14. Trouble with the Curve (This film will either be too mainstream for voters, or this year's Moneyball. Only time will tell.)
15. Anna Karenina (Reviews are to divisive, but the talent involved is too great to dismiss outright.)

Butter- Intelligent, Funny, and with a Stellar Cast

Dark comedies, especially political dark comedies, are a tricky sub genre. A film could be hilarious and edgy for 3/4 of it's running time, and then pull back during the home stretch and hurt the overall film. With politics added to the mix, it's even more challenging to pull it off as a film can appear one sided, or just plain preachy. Butter manages to avoid falling prey to any of these challenges, and manages to be a very funny, smart, no-holds-barred commentary on modern politics. While it certainly might seem a little "left" for a majority of it's runtime, writer Jason A. Micallef and direcor Jim Field Smith make sure to highlight both sides of the political spectrum and still make the film entertaining for anyone, regardless of which political party they vote for.

Shaping the 2008 primaries into a butter carving contest, Butter follows the dutiful and loyal housewife Laura Pickler (Jennifer Garner), who's hurt and embarrassed when her butter carving champion husband, Bob (Ty Burrell), is caught up in a scandalous affair with a trampy stripper (Olivia Wilde). Desperate to prove her own ability and self worth, Laura sets out to compete in the butter carving contest with her heart set on the gold. A wrench is thrown into her plans when, seemingly out of nowhere, foster child and butter carving prodigy Destiny (Yara Shahadi) emerges as major competition. Hm...sounds a little familiar, doesn't it?

The film doesn't try to hide it's political allegory status. In fact, it almost flaunts it. Jennifer Garner seems to be doing her best Sarah Palin imitation, while the comparisons between her character and Hilary Clinton are also quite clear. Destiny, meanwhile, delivers speeches about change and hope not unlike Obama did during his original campaign. But that's what makes Butter so much fun. The film brings to light just how ridiculous elections can become, how much people will do to secure votes, the strategies that they use to secure sympathy, and how different political parties, and the people in them, view each other. The script is, thankfully, never preachy about it's political beliefs and displays both Laura and Destiny in a fair light. They may have flaws, but the film doesn't necessarily depict one to be a villain and the other to be a hero. It also allows the film to be taken on two separate levels: a laugh out loud, shockingly edgy comedy, or an intelligent political satire. Either way, you'll end up satisfied.

A few problems do, unfortunately, arrive thanks primarily to the film's length. At a brisk 90 minutes, the film flies by without giving time for the supporting characters to grow. Ashely Greene, who plays Laura's rebellious step-daughter who enjoys doing drugs and experimenting with lesbianism, remains underdeveloped and is never given any real motivation for what she does. Destiny's foster mom, played by Alicia Silverstone, has very few scenes and is never really given much of importance to do. The movie also side steps some subplots, most notably the story of Destiny's biological mother, which is brought up only once or twice despite being a very important plot point.

These mistakes are forgivable, however, due to how funny the film is and how fantastic the performances from the entire ensemble are. Jennifer Garner gives the performance of her career as Laura Pickler, completely transforming herself into a woman that manages to be more than just a recreation of Sarah Palin or Michelle Bachman. Everything from her voice to her body language are funny, and Garner completely disappears into the role. Newcomer Yara Shahadi also delivers a stellar breakthrough performance. Her comedic timing, while subtle, is impeccable and she carries the film easily and wins the hearts of the audience quickly. In terms of the supporting roles, Rob Corddry plays against type as Destiny's caring foster dad, but still allows for his sense of humor to shine through at just the right time. Stealing the film, surprisingly, is Olivia Wilde. After a number of attempts to break into blockbusters, I was ready to give up on Wilde. To me, she just seemed like a charismatic actress, but one that couldn't carry the movie. She just seemed like another pretty face. Her transformation into the foul mouthed, highly sexual Tokyo Rose is outstanding. Wilde doesn't have the best lines, and doesn't have much screen time compared to Garner, Shahadi or even Ty Burrell, but Wilde is who you will think of after finishing the movie. It's not that she has the best lines, it's that she delivers them perfectly and is obviously having the time of her life playing the character. 

Butter, while not a perfect film, is a charming one and one of the smartest political satires in years. Thanks to it's impressive cast and an intelligent script, Butter overcomes it's flaws and manages to be one of the year's must sees. It is available on Video on Demand right now and will play in select theaters in October.

OVERALL GRADE: B+

Oscar Update: Helen Hunt Shifted to Supporting...

While Oscar season may be starting, I haven't had the chance to see a movie in almost a month... a rarity for me. Still, with the Toronto Film Festival starting this week I'm sure I'll be updating my Oscar predictions more frequently. The next films I intend to see in theaters are The Master and The Perks of Being a Wallflower, but I also plan to watch Butter and Liberal Arts via VOD.

The reason for this post, however, is that a change in category consideration has been brought to my attention. Apparently, Helen Hunt is being placed in the Best Supporting Actress category instead of the Best Leading Actress. Based on the trailers I've seen and the reviews that I've read, I don't really see how this placement makes sense, but I suppose that it's similar to Berenice Bejo being considered a 'Supporting Actress' for her work in the artist, even though she was essentially the female lead. Regardless to my thoughts on the lead/supporting debate, this lead to an update in my Best Leading Actress and Best Supporting Actress brackets.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: 

1. Keira Knightely, Anna Karenina
2. Quevenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
4. Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
5. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

ALTERNATES: Meryl Streep, Hope Springs ; Viola Davis, Won't Back Down 

This is, by far, one of the dullest Best Actress races I've seen in a long time. The only surefire nominees seem to be Knightely and Wallis, with many early reviews saying Linney's role in Hudson isn't all that crucial to the film, Winstead seeming like a wild card, and Streep just sneaking in due to her legendary status, but she could easily be replaced with Davis. Hopefully after TIFF we'll have more concrete rankings.
EDIT: I completely forgot to add Marion Cotillard to the brackets! Her performance is receiving a lot of buzz.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
2. Amy Adams, The Master
3. Helen Hunt, The Master
4. Sally Field, Lincoln
5. Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson

ALTERNATES: Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ; Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

I see Hathaway, Adams and Hunt as surefire contenders in this category but we'll have to wait the year out to see who else is a heavy weight.

Oscar Updates: "Argo" Kicks off the Oscar Race!

This weekend, Ben Affleck's period thriller Argo premiered at the Telluride Film Festival, to rave reviews and immediate Oscar buzz.  While I certainly expected the film to generate some buzz, the film has unofficially kicked off the Oscar race and seems to be a formidable foe for the other films. While I won't be able to see the film until October, when it's released nationwide, I can update my Oscar predictions for a few categories:

First off all, I'm moving Argo up on my Best Picture rankings, right into the Big Leagues. Here's my current rankings:

1. The Master
2. Lincoln
3. Argo
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Anna Karenina
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Moonrise Kingdom

I've also updated the Best Supporting Actor brackets, due to the feedback towards Alan Arkin and Bryan Cranston. Here are my current rankings:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
2. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
3. Alan Arkin, Argo
4. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
5. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

ALTERNATES: Bryan Cranston, Argo ; William H. Macy, The Sessions

I'm maintaining my rankings for Best Director, however, I feel confident that Affleck will remain in contention and could even rise in the rankings as the year goes on. Lastly, while I haven't started my rankings for Best Original or Adapted Screenplay, I feel confident that Argo will be a part of the conversation for quite some time. That's all for my Oscar updates today. I'll be keeping you posted as the year goes on!

Oscar Predictions Start...Now!

With the summer movie season coming to a close and the fall beginning to creep up on us, it's official: Oscar season is upon us. For the next four months movie nerds will be racing to the theaters every weekend (sometimes more than once!) for two reasons: to make a Top 10 list, and to have the most accurate brackets for Oscar season.

Growing up, The Academy Awards have been like my Superbowl; staying up late to see what took home Best Picture were some of the most exciting moments of my childhood. Now, I'm actually able to see the films in contention, and Oscar season is more exciting than ever.

Keep in mind that these predictions are very rough seeing as a majority of the films haven't been seen yet. These predictions will be updated many times before nominations are announced. Also, some categories are virtually impossible to predict at this point. So, for now, I'll predict the 'Big 5' awards and will add the other awards to my roster as the year goes on. Following my bracket, which will ranked from most likely to be nominated to least likely, I'll have two alternatives per category and a brief analysis. Feel free to post your own brackets in the comments. I'll be updating these lists quite a bit, especially as the films mentioned below are released and more film festivals take place.

Now, let's kick off the Oscar season right!

BEST PICTURE-

1. The Master
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
4. Life of Pi
5. Anna Karenina
6. Argo
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Moonrise Kingdom

ON THE BORDERLINE: Trouble with the Curve, The Sessions,  Hyde Park on the Hudson, The Impossible and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

ANALYSIS: At this point, enough people have seen The Master to make me almost certain it will be nominated. Will it win? Who knows, it might be too dark or controversial to take home Best Picture, but it will certainly be a major contender. Given the pedigree of those involved, Lincoln, Les Miserables and Life of Pi are almost guaranteed nominations as well, unless the finished product isn't as good as the trailer promises. Anna Karenina looks like a possible contender judging by the trailer, but until reviews come in I feel like it's not a definite nomination. It's certainly a major possibility, however. The trailer for  Argo makes it look like a major Oscar movie, but the fact that Ben Affleck's previous directorial features weren't nominated despite positive reviews makes me a bit hesitant. Tarantino's Django Unchained looks phenomenal but, given the subject matter of the picture, might be too controversial for the Academy. Also, based on the tone of the trailer, this looks more Kill Bill than Inglourious Basterds, and the former was snubbed by the Academy. Both Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom have already been released and have received much acclaim, but they will have to retain momentum for the rest of the year in order to be contenders in the Best Picture race. If anything, one of those films will be nominated, and I feel the Academy will choose the highly ambitious Beasts of the Southern Wild instead of Moonrise Kingdom. The films on the borderline all seem like potential contenders, but I'll have to wait to see more reviews before fully deciding.