Post TIFF Oscar Brackets!

With Venice, Telluride and the Toronto Film Festival out of the way, Oscar season has become significantly easier to predict, but still remains a bit of a challenge. We won't know what the Academy will eat up and what the Academy won't care about until the films hit theaters and we see just how much of a dent they'll make. Everything from box office numbers to mainstream critic reviews could have a say. Some films on these rosters will be deleted, and maybe a few will be added. Not to mention that three of the biggest Oscar films of the year, Les Miserables, Lincoln and Life of Pi have yet to be seen by anybody! And their are some dark horses out their, as well as independent films where a lot will depend on just how much of a marketing push they'll receive. So while I stand by these predictions, and feel that a few of them are locks at this point, it's still a very rough draft of what will eventually become a final roster. More categories will be added as the year goes on.

Just remember- the potential nominees are listed in order of which I believe they'll receive a nomination (1 being most likely, and the last number being the least likely.) I also stopped the ranking at 15 per category. Obviously, the top five are my predictions for what will be nominated at this point, with the exception of Best Picture which, for now, stops at 10. Leave some comments as to what you expect will rule this Oscar season!


BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo (Glowing reviews out of Telluride and TIFF have made this film quite the frontrunner for early Oscar season, in a neck and neck race with...)
2. Silver Linings Playbook (The film won the TIFF People Choice Award, the same award which The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionare received before winning Best Picture. That put this critical darling in good company.)
3. Les Miserables (This looks like the biggest and best of this year's Oscar pictures, even if it seems doubtful that a Tom Hopper film will win again after The King's Speech two years ago.)
4. Lincoln (It's Spielberg and a biopic, it's obviously going to generate Oscar buzz, but it's overall quality may cost it a nomination much like J. Edgar.)
5. The Master (It's being called challenging and dark, which are qualities the Academy don't usually like in a movie, but the extremely positive reviews from some critics seems too loud to ignore)
6. Life of Pi (Based on the trailer, Life of Pi could be quite the contender, reminding me of Hugo from last year. But, the film also looks like it could be too ambitious, which could hurt it's chances.)
7. Django Unchained (This could be one of Tarantino's biggest hits with the Academy, but it's also destined to be surrounded by controversy, which could hurt it.)
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild (The indie hit of the year, Beasts of the Southern Wild should be locked for a nomination, assuming it maintains this momentum throughout awards season.)
9. The Impossible (It's positive reviews are extremely positive, and it's negative reviews are vicious. It looks like a major 'Oscar movie' though, and if Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close received a nomination, this could too.)
10. Zero Dark Thirty (We, simply, know too little about this film to form a solid opinion on it's Oscar chances.)
11. Amour (Foreign films are always tricky to predict, regardless of how positive the reviews are.)
12. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (I sense the Academy is over the LOTR franchise, and the movie doesn't seem as epic as it's predecessor's based upon the trailer.)
13. Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson has never had much sway amongst Academy voters, but if any film is going to change that, this movie will.)
14. Trouble with the Curve (This film will either be too mainstream for voters, or this year's Moneyball. Only time will tell.)
15. Anna Karenina (Reviews are to divisive, but the talent involved is too great to dismiss outright.)

BEST ACTOR:

1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (He's been compared to DeNiro in Raging Bull. If that doesn't make him a frontrunner, I don't know what will.)
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln (Day Lewis is a terrific actor who should always remain in Oscar conversation, but this is also the most Oscar friendly role of the year. If it wasn't for the fact that he won two awards already, I'd make him the front runner.)
3. John Hawkes, The Sessions (Another Oscar bait role, this time played by a deserving actor who's yet to win. He could definitely take this award home.)
4. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables (Musicals are always tricky to predict, but Jackman is a wonderful actor and should do well with this part. Assuming he doesn't disappoint, he should definitely be nominated.)
5. Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve (Won't Academy voters want to honor this legend's last role onscreen? Or is the film too mainstream? Clint could easily get lower on this ranking, but for now his status as a legend puts him in the top five.)
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook (The film, and his performance, have been getting raves but something tells me Cooper's Hangover reputation will hurt his chances.)
7. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly (A push from the Weinstein company could help, but the film seems like the sort that will get lost in the Oscar shuffle.)
8. Denzel Washington, Flight (This is Washington's juiciest part since Training Day but, until we get reviews, it's too early to really see how much of a lock he is.)
9. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained (Despite being the lead, not many people are talking about Foxx's role in the film.)
10. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (A dark horse, for sure, but the film's reviews seem to indicate that, with the proper push, Perks could be a contender this year and that Lerman is a rising star to keep an eye on.)

BEST ACTRESS:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook (The only surefire lock this year, Lawrence has a good chance at winning based on reviews.)
2. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild (Is she too young to take seriously as a nominee? I don't think so, but the Academy might.)
3. Keira Knightely, Anna Karenina (Based on the film's reviews, the only nomination I feel confident granting Anna Karenina is Best Actress but even that seems like a 50/50 bet.)
4. Maggie Smith, Quartet (Smith has been having a great year, both on TV and film, and for the Academy to honor her now isn't entirely out of the question. A lot will depend on how the film is received and how great the push for awards will be.) 
5. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone (Cotillard won for a foreign film before, and reviews indicate that this is one of the best performances of the year. She should be a formidable contender, but as the fall goes on she may become lost in the shuffle.)
6. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed (I'd love to see Winstead break out this year, but a lot will depend on how popular the film is. I could see Winstead ending up like Elizabeth Olsen from last year.) 
7. Naomi Watts, The Impossible (I've read the Watts is pretty much confined to a bed for most of the film, but this is a juicy Oscar role and if the film continues to receive generally positive reviews she could sneak into the top five.)
8. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs (Meryl Streep is...well...Meryl Streep. Their is no way she can't be in an Oscar conversation, even if Hope Springs seems to be a bit too lighthearted for the Academy. I'm seeing this performance ending up like It's Complicated, not Julie & Julia)
9. Eammnuelle Riva, Amour (She's been receiving extremely positive reviews from the festival circuit, but how much power will this film have with the Academy?)
10. Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve (Adams seems more likely for a nomination in the Supporting Actress category, but let's not count her out from the Leading Role nominations just yet.)
11. Viola Davis, Won't Back Down (Davis is long overdue for an Oscar, but this light hearted film doesn't seem like the right vehicle for her to get it.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained (Based on the trailer, the fact that DiCaprio has yet to receive an Oscar and, of course, Tarantino's involvement, DiCaprio seems like quite the frontrunner at the moment.)
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master (Is he a lead? Supporting? I'm going with supporting, where he is essentially a lock for a nomination. In the lead, I'm not so sure.)
3. Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook (Reviews say that this is DeNiro's best role since Cape Fear in 1991. The Academy will certainly want to grace this actor with another nomination and maybe even a win.)
4. Alan Arkin, Argo (Arkin is being called the highlight of Argo by many. He could definitely maintain his slot in the Top 5.)
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables (Crowe is a great actor in what's sure to be a big Oscar movie this year.) 
6. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild (He's not as likely a nominee as Wallis, but his reviews have been strong too.)
7. Tom Holland, The Impossible (Holland has been called the best thing about The Impossible by many and he stands a good chance at a nomination if the film delivers.) 
8. Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths (Harrelson looks like a scene stealer and the film is getting positive feedback, but it might not be an 'Oscar' movie.)
9. Bryan Cranston, Argo (He's not as likely as Arkin, it would seem, but you shouldn't count him out!)
10. William H. Macy, The Sessions (Macy hasn't been mentioned in the reviews as much as his co-stars, but he's still a much beloved actor in what looks like a great part.) 
11. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln (There are, simply, too many actors in this film to really decide who's more likely for a nomination. Based on the trailer, Jones has a good part, but only time will tell.) 
12. David Strathairn, Lincoln (Same as above.)
13. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Waltz just won an Oscar for an Tarantino role, so it's unlikely he'll be up there again, but you never know.)
14. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike (McConaughey is considered the best thing about Magic Mike, one of the few critical darlings released so far this year. If it's going to be honored at the Awards, this seems to be the best bet.)
15. Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (Miller is a rising talent but the way the film is received throughout the fall will determine whether he drops off this list or if he rises up.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables (Have you seen the trailer for this film? Hathaway looks phenomenal and will likely pick up an Oscar for this film after three nominations.)
2. Amy Adams, The Master (A formidable foe for Hathaway, but The Master's "challenging" reputation might hurt her chances at winning. Still, she seems locked for a nomination.)
3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions (Hunt is also locked for a nomination, even if I don't understand why she's not being considered a lead, where she would certainly be a lock as well.)
4. Sally Field, Lincoln (The rest of the field is somewhat weak, but Field seems like a likely nomination.) 
5. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables (Samantha Barks might be too much of a newcomer, but she has a fantastic role in what's sure to be a major movie this winter.) 
6. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (The ladies from The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel are fairly strong candidates, but it's unknown if the film will still be relevant come voting time.)
7. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (See above.)
8. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty (Chastain may be relatively new to the awards scene, but people are already falling in love with her. We don't know much about this film, or her role in it, but she's bound for great things and her status as a bright, young, talent should keep her on this list.)
9. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained (Her role doesn't seem all that big, but in a weak field she could receive a nomination.)
10. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook (Reviews indicate that she doesn't have much to do in this film, but, much like Washington, she could sneak in due to lack of competition.)
11. Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina (Nothing about Anna Karenina seems like a lock for a nomination, but I suppose Macdonald is the closest thing to a nomination.) 
12. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (I'm not sure if she'll be considered a lead or supporting, but I don't see her having much sway this awards season regardless. Still, she should be included on the list.)

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo (He was snubbed for his previous films. This year, it won't be the same.)
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (After The Fighter, David O. Russell seems like an Oscar friendly director. The film's rave reviews will certainly help his chances.)
3. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables (I don't think he has much of a chance at winning, but he'll likely be nominated, cementing his status as an A-list director.) 
4. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln (Speaking of A-list directors, Spielberg could find himself in the top five this year... if this movie doesn't disappoint like his last few.
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (PTA could be nominated, but it all depends on how the film is received by Academy voters.)
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi (Lee has already won an Oscar for Brokeback Mountain and I can't imagine the Academy itching to give him another award, but if the movie is received warmly he could be nominated again.) 
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Tarantino is a much beloved director, but he will have to compete with a number of other beloved directors for a slot. Django seems like the sort of film that will divide audiences and, thus, divide the Academy.)
8. Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (A film this unique and beloved always stands out during Oscar season.) 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master (One of the three films I'd consider locks in this category, based on the talent of the writer.)
2. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (Another lock.)
3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom (Also a lock, as Moonrise Kingdom will have to be honored in some way this year.)
4. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths (The rest of the films will be fighting for a slot, and Seven Psychopaths seems like a good candidate.)
5. Michael Haneke, Amour (This seems like Amour's best chance at a nomination.)
6. Rian Johnson, Looper (A dark horse nomination for sure, but Rian Johnson is a talented writer and Looper is receiving very positive reviews.)
7. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty (Again, we don't know much about this movie, but Boal is an Oscar winner for his last collaboration with Bigelow.) 
8. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike (I could see Magic Mike being a dark horse nomination for later this year.)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

1. Chris Terrio, Argo (Argo seems like a lock in this category.)
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook (This also seems like a lock.)
3. William Nicholson, Les Miserables (Will a musical hold much power in this category? I could definitely see it having a nomination, but it's hard to tell.)
4. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln (The quality of this film will determine it's likelihood at securing a nomination.)
5. Lucy Alibar and Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild (If the film isn't forgotten about, I could see it getting in there.)
6. Ben Lewin, The Sessions (The film has the best chance at impressing in the acting categories, but you never know.)
7. David Magee, Life of Pi (Again, the quality will really determine whether or not this will be nominated.) 
8. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower (I could see Chbosky getting nominated, but there are a lot of potential 'big guns' in the field so if some of the films disappoint, this could be nominated.)
9. Ronald Harwood, Quartet (A lot will depend on how much of an Oscar push this receives from the studio.)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

1. Wreck-It-Ralph (Not only will this be probably nominated, I really could see this winning if it is as good as it looks.)
2. Frankenweenie (I'm not sure if this will deliver or not, but their are so few contenders from the major studios that this seems like a lock.)
3. ParanNorman (It might be a bit too dark, but this wonderful film, which you should all go see, stands a good chance at being nominated due to the lack of serious competition.)
4. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman (From this point on, it's a guessing game.)
5. From Up on Poppy Hill (Again, this is a guessing game.)
6. Brave (This film hasn't received the glowing response other Pixar films have received. It still seems somewhat likely, but I'm not ready to put this in the top five just yet.)
7. Rise of the Guardians (Reviews will be a serious indicator of how this film will do. I honestly don't know what to expect.)