Growing up, The Academy Awards have been like my Superbowl; staying up late to see what took home Best Picture were some of the most exciting moments of my childhood. Now, I'm actually able to see the films in contention, and Oscar season is more exciting than ever.
Keep in mind that these predictions are very rough seeing as a majority of the films haven't been seen yet. These predictions will be updated many times before nominations are announced. Also, some categories are virtually impossible to predict at this point. So, for now, I'll predict the 'Big 5' awards and will add the other awards to my roster as the year goes on. Following my bracket, which will ranked from most likely to be nominated to least likely, I'll have two alternatives per category and a brief analysis. Feel free to post your own brackets in the comments. I'll be updating these lists quite a bit, especially as the films mentioned below are released and more film festivals take place.
Now, let's kick off the Oscar season right!
BEST PICTURE-
- The Master
- Lincoln
- Les Miserables
- Life of Pi
- Anna Karenina
- Argo
- Django Unchained
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Moonrise Kingdom
ON THE BORDERLINE: Trouble with the Curve, The Sessions, Hyde Park on the Hudson, The Impossible and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
ANALYSIS: At this point, enough people have seen The Master to make me almost certain it will be nominated. Will it win? Who knows, it might be too dark or controversial to take home Best Picture, but it will certainly be a major contender. Given the pedigree of those involved, Lincoln, Les Miserables and Life of Pi are almost guaranteed nominations as well, unless the finished product isn't as good as the trailer promises. Anna Karenina looks like a possible contender judging by the trailer, but until reviews come in I feel like it's not a definite nomination. It's certainly a major possibility, however. The trailer for Argo makes it look like a major Oscar movie, but the fact that Ben Affleck's previous directorial features weren't nominated despite positive reviews makes me a bit hesitant. Tarantino's Django Unchained looks phenomenal but, given the subject matter of the picture, might be too controversial for the Academy. Also, based on the tone of the trailer, this looks more Kill Bill than Inglourious Basterds, and the former was snubbed by the Academy. Both Beasts of the Southern Wild and Moonrise Kingdom have already been released and have received much acclaim, but they will have to retain momentum for the rest of the year in order to be contenders in the Best Picture race. If anything, one of those films will be nominated, and I feel the Academy will choose the highly ambitious Beasts of the Southern Wild instead of Moonrise Kingdom. The films on the borderline all seem like potential contenders, but I'll have to wait to see more reviews before fully deciding.
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE-
- Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
- Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln
- John Hawkes, The Sessions
- Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
- Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve
ALTERNATES: Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson; Denzel Washington, Flight
ANALYSIS: Virtually every review I've read for The Master indicates that Joaquin Phoenix is one of the very best things about the movie. It looks like a complete transformation for Phoenix, and I'm almost completely positive that he will be nominated, and could actually see him winning the award. Daniel Day Lewis is a very close second, however, and is almost guaranteed a nomination unless Lincoln is a monumental disappointment along the lines of J. Edgar. John Hawkes has been the subject of Oscar buzz since The Sessions premiered at Sundance earlier this year, and it certainly helps that the role has Oscar bait written all over it. I predict my top three choices will remain the same for almost all of Oscar season. My bottom two, however, could certainly switch out. As it stands, Hugh Jackman has never been nominated for an Oscar, but Les Miserables is one of the biggest films of Oscar season and Jackman will be a major contender for a nomination. He stands a good chance, but musicals aren't a very popular genre any more and, even if the film delivers, it seems like a majority of the buzz will come from Anne Hathaway. As for Eastwood, I have a hard time believing the Academy won't honor this screen legend with what is (allegedly) his final role onscreen. Trouble with the Curve looks a bit cliche, however, and if the film receives negative or even mixed reviews Clint is almost definitely out of the running. Murray's sure-to-be buzzed about performance in Hyde Park on the Hudson stands a fairly good chance as well, and Washington's turn in Flight looks like Denzel's most Oscar friendly role in a few years and if reviews are good he stands a chance.
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE-
- Keira Knightely, Anna Karenina
- Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
- Helen Hunt, The Sessions
- Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
ALTERNATES: Meryl Streep, Hope Springs; Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
ANALYSIS: Knightely is a well respected actress and her role in Anna Karenina has Oscar bait written all over it. Unless the film is a disappointment, I can't even imagine why she wouldn't be nominated. In a very close second is Quvenzhane Wallis, who's performance in Beasts of the Southern Wild has been receiving rave reviews since it's premiere at Sundance. The fact that she is only eight years old is a double edged sword, however; on one hand, the fact that she gave such a brilliant performance at such a young age will help her stand out, but will the Academy seriously consider a little kid? Moving on, Laura Linney is looking like a lock for her role in Hyde Park on the Hudson, although we won't know for sure until it's premiere. Still, Linney is an acclaimed actress with three nominations to her name. A fourth, and a potential win, seem more than likely. Hunt, meanwhile, hasn't had any real Oscar bait roles since her win for As Good As It Gets, but her performance in The Sessions is being met with very positive feedback. If the Academy doesn't mind her many nude scenes, she's certainly lock. On the edge is Viola Davis, an actress that many (including myself) feel was snubbed at the awards last year. The big question is this: is Maggie Gyllenhaal the lead or Davis? Are they both leads? And, if so, which stands the better chance? I'm going with Davis, as she's the more 'Oscar friendly' actress. Still, Streep's performance in Hope Springs has (obviously) been met with heaps of praise and she is, essentially, the queen of the Academy Awards so it wouldn't be a total surprise for her to be nominated. Mary Elizabeth Winstead has also been getting rave reviews for her performance in Smashed, and if reviews remain positive as the film makes its rounds at festivals she could be a major threat. As of right now, this category is up in the air.
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-
- Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
- Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
- Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
- Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
- William H. Macy, The Sessions
ALTERNATES: David Strathairn, Lincoln; Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths
ANALYSIS: This category is overflowing with potential contenders, and ranking my top five was an extremely difficult task. The only two that I would consider locks at this point are Leonardo DiCaprio and Philip Seymour Hoffman. DiCaprio seems like Django Unchained's best chance at an Oscar win, and the fact taht Leo has never won an Oscar is sure to be mentioned a lot this coming year. As for Hoffman, his performance in The Master has been called one of his very best, and he stands to be a formidable opponent during awards season. The rest of the category, however, is anyone's guess. Crowe seems likely for Les Miserables, and is close to a lock in my book, but musicals are a tricky genre and his performance seems the least showy out of all the principal actors. Dwight Henry has been praised for Beasts, but it seems like all the attention for that film will be headed towards his pint sized co-star. As for Macy, his performance seemed the most likely out of a plethora of performances for a nomination but it's far from a certain thing. The ensemble cast of Lincoln is gigantic and almost anyone from the film could be nominated, while Harrelson has been on a real winning streak lately and was snubbed last year despite receiving raves for his role in Rampart. There are also heavy weights like Christoph Waltz, Jude Law and Robert DeNiro in contention this year, making this one of the year's most competitive categories.
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE-
- Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
- Amy Adams, The Master
- Sally Field, Lincoln
- Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson
- Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
ALTERNATES: Samantha Barks, Les Miserables; Annette Benning, Imogene
ANALYSIS: When the trailer for Les Miserables was released, almost all people could talk about was Anne Hathaway. If Les Miserables will win anything, and given it's status as a major Oscar movie it could definitely win quite a bit, it will be Best Supporting Actress. The closest thing to competition Hathaway has (so far) is Amy Adams in The Master; another popular actress with a few nominations to her name already. Granted, Hathaway has the more 'Oscar friendly' role, but Adams is close behind. Depending on how big her role is, Field stands a chance for her performance in Lincoln, but it remains to be seen how important she will be to the film. Olivia Williams seems like a likely contender but, again, I'll wait till we hear reviews. I feel the least confident about Smith, but that's because their are so many questions regarding the category this year. Will newcomer Samantha Barks impress audiences with her performance? If Imogene lives up to the hype, Benning is almost guaranteed a nomination, but will it be released this year? Will Jennifer Lawrence be submitted as a lead or supporting actress for Silver Linings Playbook? We'll have to wait and see.
BEST DIRECTOR-
- Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
- Ang Lee, Life of Pi
- Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
- Tom Hopper, Les Miserables
- Ben Affleck, Argo
ALTERNATES: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained; Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
ANALYSIS: Essentially, I feel the same way about these selections as I do the Best Picture category; it's too difficult to be positive about your predictions until the films are released. Based solely on the trailers, these five picks seem to be the most likely, with only Ben Affleck standing out as a question mark in my mind. Tarantino and Wright could certainly sneak into the spot, but Affleck's film seems more like Oscar fare.
There you have it! My first batch of predictions. I'll be updating these often and adding more awards to the list as time goes on. I'll post my final predictions the night before nominations are announced, and will also post my personal nominations on January 1st, the same day I post my Top 10 list.
Leave your predictions in the comments, if you'd like.
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