Post Film Festival Oscar Update

Film festival season is over and a majority of the Oscar contenders this year have been screened. While we're still waiting for American Hustle, Monuments Men, Out of the Furnace and The Counselor to premiere, the fact that so many of these films have been seen make predicting (slightly) easier. There were some changes over the past month, most notably the removal of Grace of Monaco and Foxcatcher from the 2013 release calendar. And there is the question of whether or not The Wolf of Wall Street will actually be released this year. But we're still starting to see some front runners.

But in regards to Martin Scorsese's upcoming drama, I removed The Wolf of Wall Street from the Top 5 (or the Top 10, in regards to Best Picture) until we get confirmation on a release date. If the film is still in play this year, it will undoubtedly be a major contender. But we have no way of knowing that yet.

Starting with Best Picture, 12 Years a Slave remains the frontrunner for Best Picture. It's a critically lauded prestige movie, and it will difficult to topple. Alfonso Caurón's Gravity will try its hardest to do just that, and the film's critical acclaim and massive box office receipts will help, though I still can't imagine the Academy rewarding a film largely centered around special effects. And while American Hustle has yet to be seen by critics, early word of mouth from test screenings suggests that it will be a major contender for the prize. Just outside the top three we have the critically acclaimed Captain Phillips and Philomena, neither of which I see as threats for Best Picture, though they will both be talked about throughout the season. Philomena's move to Thanksgiving weekend for release (the same as last year's big Weinstein film, Silver Linings Playbook, suggests a considerable amount of confidence. I also think that Rush stands a chance, though it'll need to maintain buzz throughout the season, while both Inside Llewyn Davis and Dallas Buyers Club stand the best chance amongst the the "smaller" critically acclaimed movies that have yet to see a domestic release. Rounding out the Top 10, we have two "lighter" films that seem like Oscar bait and could definitely be in play for a nomination- Lee Daniels' The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks. From there, films 11 through 19 have minor shots, while the bottom two's chances are all but dead.

Moving into the acting categories, not much has changed though it seems that Hanks now has a better shot at breaking into the Best Actor category as he does Best Supporting Actor. His work in Captain Phillips has been raved about, and it's hard to imagine him not getting in at the moment. Still, Best Actor is a competitive category. While my top two, Chiewetel Ejiofor and Matthew McConaughey, seem like locks at the moment, the rest of the bracket is tough to place. Idris Elba, Michael B. Jordan and Forest Whitacker all have a decent shot, and if the Academy falls for Her, Nebraska or Inside Llewyn Davis, who knows what could happen. Still, I feel that Robert Redford and Christian Bale are solid picks for my Top 5 at the moment, though they may not stay that way for long.

In Best Actress, I feel that Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench are all but locks and would be willing to bet that they will be the two contenders fighting for the win. Both are highly respected actors, and both have baity roles. It'll be an intense battle no doubt. After that, I'm not quite sure what to do with Sandra Bullock. Part of me can't see how she could miss out, while another part feels that special effects will outshine her solid performance. But, Bullock has an "America's sweetheart" persona, which could go a long way with campaigning, so I can imagine a scenario where she gets in... for now. But that largely depends on how critics react to Amy Adams and Emma Thompson's performances. Both their films have gone unseen and both actresses are highly respected in the field. If the films (and, of course, their performances) are well receive, these two could certainly get a nomination, though I'm giving Adams the slight edge at the moment. Rounding out my Top 5 is Meryl Streep, who's work in August: Osage County begs the question: can a legend like Streep get nominated for a film that isn't receiving necessarily strong reviews? I'm saying yes, but only right now.

Best Supporting Actor seems to belong to Jared Leto, who's performance in Dallas Buyers Club seems to be the heart of a film I could see the Academy falling in love with. His main competition- Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave- certainly stands a chance, though the Academy would no doubt lean towards a heartwarming performance as opposed to a terrifying one. Still, it seems like both men will be nominated. But from there, it's a guessing game. Rush's weak box office makes me think the film won't maintain any momentum as the year goes on, questioning whether or not Brühl will still manage to squeeze in. There's also the question of whether or not Tom Hanks can score double nominations this year with Captain Phillips in lead and Saving Mr. Banks in supporting. Meanwhile, Bradley Cooper rounds out my Top 5, though the fact that American Hustle hasn't screened yet makes me hesitant to place it so high. I contemplated placing James Gandolfini in for Enough Said, and then Barkhar Abdi for Captain Phillips, but David O. Russell's track record for nominated performances convinced me to but Cooper above the rest. Still, this race is far from over and this category will undoubtedly change, especially when ensemble films like Out of the Furnace and Monuments Men premiere.

Best Supporting Actress has largely remained the same, with Oprah Winfrey and Lupita Nyong'o still duking it out at the top two spots. Meanwhile, the most recent American Hustle trailer convinced me to take Jennifer Lawrence's performance more seriously. But, after that, it's a pretty difficult category to nail down. Naomie Harris and Julia Roberts seem like safe picks (especially with the Weinsteins behind them), but June Squibb and Carey Mulligan could easily sneak in later on.

But the toughest category to predict is Best Director, simply because The Wolf of Wall Street's absence leaves a gaping hole in my predictions. Alfonso Caurón and Steve McQueen both seem like locks at the moment, and David O. Russell also has a huge chance at getting in if American Hustle succeeds. Assuming the film maintains momentum throughout the rest of the year, Paul Greengrass could get in for Captain Phillips. But Scorsese, who once seemed like a lock, means that a fifth position is virtually wide open, with many major directors competing for the spot. I'm giving the slight edge to Ron Howard at the moment, though it could have easily gone to the Coen Brothers, George Clooney, Stephen Frears, or a wildcard nomination like Jean-Marc Vallée or John Lee Hancock. Only time will tell.

Tomorrow, I'll start crafting brackets for the screenplay categories. Thanks for reading! And here are my brackets:



BEST PICTURE:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. Captain Phillips
5. Philomena 
6. Rush
7. Inside Llewyn Davis
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Lee Daniels' The Butler
10. Saving Mr. Banks
11. The Wolf of Wall Street
12. Monuments Men
13. Labor Day
14. Fruitvale Station
15. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
16. All is Lost
17. Her 
18. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
19. August: Osage County
20. Prisoners
21. Blue Jasmine
22. Nebraska
23. The Past
24. Out of the Furnace
25. The Counselor
26. Before Midnight
27. Lone Survivor
28. The Fifth Estate
29. Diana

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Chiewetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
8. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
9. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
10. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
11. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
12. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
13. Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
14. Matt Damon, Monuments Men
15. Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
16. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
17. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Judi Dench, Philomena
3. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
4. Amy Adams, American Hustle
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
6. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
7. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
8. Berenice Bejo, The Past
9. Adéle Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
10. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
11. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
12. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Daniel Brühl, Rush
4. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
6. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
7. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
8. Josh Brolin, Labor Day
9. John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
10. George Clooney, Gravity
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
12. Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
13. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
14. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
15. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
16. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
17. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
18. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
19. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
20. Alec Baldwin, Blue Jasmine
21. Steve Coogan, Philomena

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
2. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
3. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
4. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
6. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
7. June Squibb, Nebraska
8. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
9. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
10. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
11. Amy Adams, Her
12. Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
13. Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave
14. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
15. Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
16. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
17. Cate Blanchett, Monuments Men
18. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
19. Emily Watson, The Book Thief
20. Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
21. Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
5. Ron Howard, Rush
6. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
7. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
8. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
9. Stephen Frears, Philomena
10. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
11. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
12. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
13. Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
14. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
15. Spike Jonze, Her
16. Ridley Scott, The Counselor