Post TIFF Oscar Update

As some of you may have noticed, I've already missed a deadline on my schedule. Well, that was (somewhat) intentional. I underestimated how drastically my rankings would be altered by the end of the fest, so I chose to wait until the end of TIFF to finalize this year's first batch of predictions. So, without further adieu-

The biggest change in the brackets is how strong of a contender 12 Years a Slave will be. I always thought the film would be one of the biggest movies of the fall, but it could be the one to beat. With unanimous raves from critics and the People's Choice Award under its belt, it's clear that 12 Years a Slave will earn nominations in many different categories and is currently the front runner for Best Picture, as well as Best Actor and Best Director. I've also moved up Lupita Nyong'o in the Supporting Actress bracket, though I'm not quite sure if she has the power to dethrone Oprah Winfrey from the top just yet. Michael Fassbender's apparently frightening performance also remains in the running for Best Supporting Actor, though the fact that his character is so unlikable prevents me from naming him the frontrunner.

Two other films that made quite the impression at TIFF are Dallas Buyers Club and Rush, both of which have risen in a number of brackets. For one thing, I feel confident that Matthew McConaughey and Daniel Brühl will earn nominations for their work in the film, and that Best Picture nominations are somewhat likely, particularly for Rush. But, when it comes to Dallas Buyers Club, I think it's Jared Leto who stands the best chance at a nomination, as virtually every review names him as the highlight (and heart) of the movie. As for Rush, it stands a decent chance at the Best Director category, though I do feel the film's box office results will help determine just how much of a contender it is.

When it comes to disappointing changes, I've lowered  my expectations for Labor Day and August: Osage County considerably. Labor Day received relatively mixed to negative reviews, so I think it's Best Picture chances are borderline at best (I'm waiting to see the critical response to Captain Phillips before removing it from the Top 10) and both Josh Brolin and Kate Winslet have fallen out of the Top 5. The film's best chance will, most likely, be Adapted Screenplay. As for August, I still have Meryl Streep in the Top 5 (because she's freakin' Meryl Streep) and Julia Roberts at the tail end of the Top 5 (because Best Supporting Actress is weak this year) but it's chances at a Best Picture nomination are not looking too good.

Some other quick but notable changes:  The Fifth Estate has been moved to the bottom of all the brackets and I'll likely remove the film altogether once it's released. I've also moved Judi Dench up to the second slot on the Best Actress category. Philomena is, apparently, quite a crowd pleaser and it's chances in Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay and possibly Best Picture have increased substantially. Felicity Jones has been added to the Best Supporting Actress bracket for her positively received work in The Invisible Woman, though the film could easily fall under the radar a la Fiennes' Coriolanus. Naomie Harris also climbed the ranks after receiving raves for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, though her onscreen husband, Elba, will have to deal with a tougher crowd of actors to break into the Top 5. And, of course, we're still waiting for reviews from a number of these films, but I'm placing films/performances in the bracket based on how I think they'll be received upon their release.

Below are my brackets in the Big Six categories. I'll update these brackets on October 14, after the New York Film Festival ends.
BEST PICTURE:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Gravity
5. Rush
6. Inside Llewyn Davis
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Lee Daniels' The Butler
9. Philomena
10. Labor Day
11. Captain Phillips
12. Fruitvale Station
13. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
14. Foxcatcher
15. The Secret life of Walter Mitty
16. Monuments Men
17. All is Lost
18. August: Osage County
19. Prisoners
20. Blue Jasmine
21. Grace of Monaco
22. Her
23. Nebraska
24. The Past
25. Saving Mr. Banks
26. Out of the Furnace
27. The Counselor
28. Before Midnight
29. Lone Survivor
30. The Fifth Estate
31. Diana

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Chiewetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Christian Bale, American Hustle
6. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
7. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
8. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
9. Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
10. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
11. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
12. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
13. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
14. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
15. Matt Damon, Monuments Men
16. Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
17. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
18. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Judi Dench, Philomena
3. Amy Adams, American Hustle
4. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
6. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
7. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
8. Berenice Bejo, The Past
9. Nicole Kidman, Grace of Monaco
10. Adéle Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
11. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
12. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
13. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
3. Daniel Brühl, Rush
4. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
6. Josh Brolin, Labor Day
7. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
8. John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
9. Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
10. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
11. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
12. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
13. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
14. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
15. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
16. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
17. Alec Baldwin, Blue Jasmine
18. Steve Coogan, Philomena
19. George Clooney, Gravity
20. Tim Roth, Grace of Monaco

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
2. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
3. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
4. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
6. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
7. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
8. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
9. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
10. Amy Adams, Her
11. June Squibb, Nebraska
12. Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
13. Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave
14. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
15. Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
16. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
17. Cate Blanchett, Monuments Men
18. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
19. Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
20. Emily Watson, The Book Thief
21. Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Ron Howard, Rush
6. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
7. Bennet Miller, Foxcatcher
8. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
9. Stephen Frears, Philomena
10. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
11. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
12. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
13. Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
14. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
15. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
16. Spike Jonze, Her
17. Ridley Scott, The Counselor