Oscars 2014 Preview

It's my favorite time of the moviegoing year- Oscar Season! While summer movies can be nice, Oscar season is (ideally) filled with critical darlings and films that will be fighting for a spot on a critic's Top 10 list- not the Top 10 at the domestic box office. And great movies are only the tip of the iceberg- predicting who will be nominated (and win) at the Academy Awards, which will be held on March 2nd, is a lot of fun on its own. And while I'll be getting into my Oscar predictions next week (starting Sunday, to be exact) I think it's time we break down what films we will be talking about this fall. So, without further adieu, let's kiss Summer 2013 goodbye and say hello to our new batch of Oscar contenders.

ALREADY A CONTENDER

While this spring/summer wasn't necessarily ripe with major Oscar movies, we do have a fair share of potential contenders and even a few potential locks for a nomination. While they may have been critical darlings, I don't think we can expect to hear much from Spring Breakers, The Place Beyond the Pines or Mud later this fall. Spring Breakers is far too edgy and strange for the Academy's tastes, and I feel that too much time has past since The Place Beyond the Pines has been released. Mud made a huge smash in the critical community (it's sitting pretty at 98% on Rotten Tomatoes), but I think its best (and only) chance for a nomination would be in the screenplay category.

Perhaps the biggest contender released thus far is Lee Daniels' The Butler, a film which, as I mentioned in my review, is the definition of Oscar bait. While I don't think it's a major contender for this season, you can believe a mega-producer like Harvey Weinstein's will certainly make sure the film gets noticed. It's best chance for a nomination is Oprah Winfrey, but it could make a dent in Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Actor and possibly Best Picture. Woody Allen's latest, Blue Jasmine, also has a chance at reaping some Oscar gold, primarily because of Cate Blanchett's brilliant lead performance. She's a major contender in the Best Actress category and the closest thing to a lock so far this year. Outside of Blanchett, however, the film isn't really a lock anywhere else. It certainly has a chance in Best Original Screenplay and potentially Best Picture, though I wouldn't bet too much on that just yet. Finally, Sundance sensation Fruitvale Station has the potential to be a Beasts of the Southern Wild-esque success, though that will really depend on if the Weinsteins can drum up more excitement for it late in the year. Still, it has a chance at Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay and potentially Best Director if the producers can play their cards right. Finally, we come to the best reviewed film of the year so far- Before Midnight. While the trilogy has never been a favorite with the Academy, I think it's a very strong contender for Best Adapted Screenplay- and potentially more. But the real Oscar contenders will come out of the woodwork in September...

SEPTEMBER

September is, essentially, preseason for the Oscar contenders. While there aren't many films being released during this largely unpopular month at the box office, film festivals are being held throughout the world where many potential contenders will premiere, helping to give everybody a better idea of how each film will fare. But September is not without it's buzz-worthy releases, and the biggest from September is the latest film from Ron Howard.

Rush, an F1 racing drama chronicling the legendary rivalry between James Hunt and Niki Lauda, has the potential to be one of the biggest films of the season. While it's potential for box office success may come into question (is anyone in the US interested in F1?) the film was helmed by a former Oscar winner and tells a story that has the potential to put audiences on the edge of their seat. From a technical standpoint, the film could break out in everything from sound editing to makeup and even cinematography, while Best Picture is not entirely out of the question either. Best Director and Best Supporting Actor for Daniel Brühl (who's playing Niki Lauda) is also a possibility, though it's critical reception will obviously determine that.

The other high profile film from September is Denis Villeneuve's Prisoners, a thriller starring Hugh Jackman that will be playing at the Toronto International Film Festival next week. While I wouldn't call the film a major contender, it certainly has the chance to break out in a few categories. Namely, cinematography, as legendary ten time nominee Roger Deakins is the director of photography for the film. The film also boasts an impressive cast of Oscar nominees/winners- Hugh Jackman, Viola Davis, Jake Gylenhaal, Melissa Leo and Terrence Howard- so completely ruling the film out in those categories would be foolish. Though, based on the trailer, the only actor I can seriously see competing for a slot is Hugh Jackman. Though that could all change once we start getting reviews for the movie over the next few days.

The final major contender from the film is one that I don't think will be as widely seen as the last two mentioned. Salinger is a major contender for Best Documentary and one that is always generating a lot of buzz. The film, which takes a look at legendary but reclusive author J.D. Salinger, will take a look at the impact The Catcher in the Rye had (and possibly still has) on society, while also looking into the mysterious author's secret life. But perhaps most surprising is the revelation that five yet-to-be published books from the author will be released to the public shortly. With the Weinsteins at the helm, Salinger is bound to be one of the most talked about documentaries of the fall and will no doubt be a serious threat for the Best Documentary award come Oscar night.

Outside of those three films, however, there isn't all that much to anticipate in regards to Oscar movies. Personally, I can't wait to see Joseph Gordon Levitt's directorial debut, Don Jon, but the only shot that movie has is in Best Original Screenplay and even that's a long shot. And can we, perhaps, predict Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 for a Best Animated Feature slot? I don't think it's a total lock, but it certainly has the potential. But, September will, for the most part, be a quiet month, the calm before the storm that is October rolls in...


OCTOBER:
While November and December are typically the biggest months for Oscar movies, it seems like producers are trying to pack as many films as possible over the course of the next three months. So, October is surprisingly busy this year with a number of major movies on the horizon. The biggest film of the month? Well, it's a tough call, but 12 Years a Slave seems like the movie with the most potential for Oscar glory.

While Steve McQueen's last film was snubbed by the Academy, 12 Years a Slave is within the Academy's ballpark and it's highly unlikely that the Academy will once again ignore one of the most buzzed about young directors working today. The story of Solomon Northup, a free man who was kidnapped and sold into slavery, is a powerful one and if McQueen delivers another critical darling we could be looking at one of the biggest movies of the year. The film could be a major contender in many different categories. Best Picture is an obvious one, as is Best Actor for Chiwetel Ejiofor. But what else? After being snubbed for his last collaboration with McQueen, Michael Fassbender has a chance to score his first ever nomination in the Supporting Actor category, while Alfre Woodard and newcomer Lupita Nyong'o could make a dent in the Supporting Actress category. Adapted Screenplay, a plethora of technical awards and Best Original Score are also possibilities and, if the film lives up to its full potential, Steve McQueen could find himself a nominee for Best Director. While the film opens in limited release on October 18, we'll start hearing reviews over the next few days as the film will be featured at TIFF and (possibly) Telluride.

Moving away from historical epics and into the realm of technical achievements, Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity could be this year's Life of Pi- a visual marvel that absolutely dominates the technical categories and makes a valiant effort for Best Picture. Having recently premiered at the Venice Film Festival to near universal raves, the Sandra Bullock/George Clooney vehicle will almost definitely find itself nominated for Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects and Best Sound Editing/Mixing, but why stop there? Alfonso Cuarón could follow in the shoes of James Cameron and Ang Lee and find himself a Best Director nominee. As for Sandra Bullock, I wouldn't be surprised if the film's technical merits outshine what is essentially her one-woman show, but she stands a decent shot at a nomination. And, finally, Best Picture seems likely at this time- though the critical reception of this year's other films could make or break that.

Next we have Paul Greengrass's Captain Phillips, a film I can't quite place my finger on. It looks good, but there is something... off about it. As for its awards prospects I feel it may be too similar to last year's Zero Dark Thirty to really be in contention, especially since that film underperformed last year when all was said and done. But awards for cinematography, editing and possibly Best Actor are somewhat likely- though I think Mr. Hanks has a much better chance with December's Saving Mr. Banks. Another film I'm having trouble prediciting is J.C. Chandor's All Is Lost. After premiering at Cannes the film received unanimously positive reviews but I really don't see this appealing to the Academy at all, especially since they have a big budgeted picture with a similar theme being released this year (the aforementioned Gravity). But the legendary Robert Redford is a very strong contender for Best Actor and, if the film performs well once it opens, I wouldn't be surprised to see it sneak in.

There are some other possible contenders set for release that month- While it will be unable to contend for best Foreign Language Film, the Palme d'or winner Blue is the Warmest Color is steadily building buzz around Adéle Exarchopoulos, the film's lead. But is a French, three hour long love story really up the Academy's alley? Only time will tell. The Counselor has a chance in Best Original Screenplay and a slim shot at getting a Best Supporting Actress nom for Cameron Diaz, though I don't think either scenario is all that likely. Meanwhile, indie flick Kill Your Darlings will only get a nomination if it breaks out upon it's domestic release- which I don't really see happening. And buzz for the JFK assassination drama Parkland and the Wikileaks thriller The Fifth Estate feel largely muted, though that could change once they premiere at TIFF. But, for the most part, this month belongs to 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, which will lead into a competitive November.


NOVEMBER

As far as I'm concerned, November belongs to Martin Scorsese. The legendary director's latest film, The Wolf of Wall Street, is one of the most buzzed about films of awards season and, like all of Marty's films, will be represented throughout the season. Generating the most buzz is, obviously, the film's lead, Leonardo DiCaprio,  who's lack of an Oscar is perhaps his most powerful asset. This is one of Leo's buzziest roles and he's one of the top contenders in an extremely crowded category. But he's not the only reason people are talking about Wolf- Martin Scrosese will most likely find himself nominated yet again in the Best Director category, while Jonah Hill and newcomer Margot Robbie could be nominated for their second and first time respectively. The film also looks stunning- cinematography is certainly not out of the question- and if the film is edited anything like the trailer is, three time winner Thelma Schoonmaker could find herself nominated yet again. And, of course, the film is a major player in the Best Picture race.

But Wolf isn't the only film worth seeking out this month. Matthew McConaughey's Dallas Buyers Club will no doubt be a huge vehicle for the actor who's in the midst of a major career comeback. McConaughey is already getting a lot of attention for his massive weight loss and if the film delivers McConaughey could find himself a first time nominee and maybe even a winner. But, based on the trailer, he's not the only performance worth talking about- Jared Leto and Jennifer Garner could find themselves with a nomination in the supporting categories. And, depending on how warmly the film is received, we could be looking at nominations for Best Picture, Director and Screenplay. There's also Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, which looks almost too baity but could find itself competing in Best Actor or Best Supporting Actress. And there's Alexander Payne's black and white drama Nebraska, which is primarily a vehicle for long time character actor Bruce Dern. Based on the film's lukewarm reception at Cannes in May, Dern is Nebraska's best chance at a nomination, and he has one hell of a crowd to compete with.

And that's only the tip of the iceberg. The Book Thief doesn't look all that great (to me, at least) but if the film receives positive reviews it could find itself nominated in several major categories, most notably Supporting Actor for Geoffrey Rush and Production Design. The Princess Diana biopic Diana could also score Naomi Watts her third nomination, though the lack of buzz for the movie doesn't instill much confidence. The same could be said for the Nicole Kidman led Grace of Monaco, a film that screams "Oscar contender" but failed to make a splash during it's preview at Cannes and is still without a trailer. On the outside looking in we have Spike Lee's Oldboy and Kasi Lemmons' Black Nativty, though I doubt either will garner much attention. And last, but certainly not least, Disney's Frozen is set to premiere Thanksgiving weekend and, as far as I'm concerned, it's the frontrunner for Best Animated Feature. But all this leads up to is the most competitive month of the year- December.

DECEMBER
Movie lovers better open their wallets- December is packed with movies simply demanding your attention. There is no time to waste, so let's just dive in:

The film I'm most excited about is David O. Russell's American Hustle. Coming off Silver Linings Playbook and featuring a cast to die for, American Hustle will certainly be a player in all four of the acting categories, with Christian Bale and Amy Adams getting the most attention as the film's leads- though Jennifer Lawrence could score a nod in the somewhat weak Supporting Actress field. But the film doesn't stop there. Production Design, Editing, Cinematography, and even Hair & Makeup are possibilities. And, of course, David O. Russell stands a great chance in the Best Director field, as does Eric Singer in Original Screenplay. This will, no doubt, be a huge Oscar film.

But naming the biggest film of December is not an easy task. When it comes to films that have already premiered you have the Cannes sensation Inside Llewyn Davis, the latest film from the Coen brothers that could easily contend with the Best Picture nominees this year. Asghar Farhadi's much anticipated followup to A Separation, also arrives in December and, based on reviews, The Past could be this year's Best Foreign Language Film, as well as a vehicle for star Bérénice Bejo.

At 35 years old, Jason Reitman has already been nominated for Best Director twice (for Juno and Up in the Air), and while Young Adult was (unjustly) ignored by the Academy, his next film seems like it could serve up his third Best Director nomination. Labor Day stars Academy favorite Kate Winslet in its lead and is based on a popular book- a recipe for major success. The coming of age story also showcases a buzzed about supporting performance from Josh Brolin and received positive reviews at Telluride so it could definitely be a big winner this March. Winslet and Brolin seem like easy picks for nominations, and Reitman will most likely be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay. But what about Best Picture and Best Director? Its reviews out of TIFF will be a deciding factor with that.

Two that I really can't make my mind up on are Spike Jonze's Her and Bennet Miller's Foxcatcher. While we already have a trailer for Her and the film looks marvelous, the plot seems awfully strange for an Academy favorite and while Joaquin Phoenix looks great I don't know if it's necessarily a performance voters will go for. If anything, the film stands a chance in the Best Original Screenplay category and perhaps Best Original Song. As for Foxcatcher, we've yet to see anything from it but the talent involved makes me think it'll earn quite a few nominations. Steve Carrell and Mark Ruffalo are both bound to build buzz and Bennet Miller could even earn himself a directing nod if the film lives up to its potential. But I'll need to see footage before I get too optimistic about its chances.

And we're not done yet. August: Osage County and Saving Mr. Banks both look like major showcases for a number of performances. Meryl Streep is almost guaranteed a nomination (for Supporting Actress) as long as the film doesn't disappoint critically, while Julia Roberts (in Lead) and Margo Martindale (in Supporting) are possibilities as well. Meanwhile both Emma Thompson (in Lead) and Tom Hanks (in Supporting) look like solid predictions for Saving Mr. Banks, which could prove to be a bigger contender if the film scores positive reviews. I'm sure the Academy would eat a film about a Hollywood classic if the reviews end up positive. There's also George Clooney's Monuments Men, which looks like a less serious version of Argo set during WWII. I don't think the film will be a major player (outside of Costumes and Production Design) but counting a guy like Clooney out altogether is a mistake.

Rounding out December is The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug which, once again, will probably stick to the tech categories, unlike the original Lord of the Rings trilogy. Out of the Furnace (which looks incredible) and Lone Survivor (which looks abysmal) could be contenders, but only if there is a major critical push behind them both. And Ralph Fiennes could have an Oscar movie on his hands with  The Invisible Woman, though I'd need to see some footage and reviews before getting too serious. The final question mark of the month is Ben Stiller's The Secret Life of Walter Mitty- the movie looks great, but I can't tell if it's bound for box office success, award show success or both.

I'll be trying to see as many of these movies as possible (and will obviously write reviews for them all) but my main reason for this post is to introduce my Oscar predictions calendar. I'll be introducing my Oscar brackets on Sunday and will keep them updated frequently throughout the awards season, with at least one update a month and special attention given to them all after film festivals come to a close. Here's what the next four months are going to look like:

Sunday, September 1- Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Supporting Actress
Monday, September 2- Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Supporting Actor
Tuesday, September 3- Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Actress
Wednesday, September 4- Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Actor
Thursday, September 5- Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Director
Friday, September 6- Oscar Predictions Round 1: Best Picture
Wednesday, September 18- Post-TIFF Bracket Updates (Big Six Nominees)
Monday, October 14- Oscar Predictions: Post NYFF Bracket Updates (Big Six Nominees)
Tuesday, October 15- Oscar Predictions Round 2: Adapted Screenplay
Wednesday, October 16- Oscar Predictions Round 2: Original Screenplay
Monday, November 18- Mid November Bracket Updates (Big Eight Nominations)
Monday, December 2- Oscar Predictions Round 3: Best Animated Film
Tuesday, December 3- Oscar Predictions Round 3: Best Visual Effects
Wednesday, December 4- Oscar Predictions Round 3: Music Awards
Thursday, December 5- Oscar Predictions Round 3: Technical Awards
Thursday, December 12- Post Golden Globe Nominations Bracket Update (Big Eight Nominations)
Monday, December 16- Oscar Predictions Round 4: Best Documentary
Tuesday, December 17- Oscar Predictions Round 4: Best Foreign Film
Monday, December 30- End of Year Bracket Update (Complete)
Wednesday, January 15- Final Oscar Predictions (Complete)

So keep checking out the blog over the past few months and please follow me on Twitter to remain up to date with my predictions, as well as on Letterboxd for my latest reviews. Here's to a great Oscar season!