Sunday, March 2, 2014

The Top 10 Films of 2013

2013- a year filled with great movies. While many of the films I was most looking forward to proved to be disappointments, it was the surprises and sheer significance of the films that lived up to expectations that made it a year worth celebrating. New standards in technical filmmaking were set, and important movies were made. Master directors released excellent new films, and first time directors burst onto the scene with huge displays of talent. This has been a year to remember.

Narrowing down to a list of ten has proven extremely difficult. For one thing, there are so many movies that may not reach greatness but are still good and worthy of praise, and I'm hoping that they are not forgotten about. Films like Enough Said, The Place Beyond the Pines and Dallas Buyers Club are all worth paying attention to, as are foreign dramas like Wadjda and The Hunt. And in terms of blockbuster entertainment, Hollywood managed to surprise me with Baz Luhrmann's surprisingly competent interpretation of The Great Gatsby, as did Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen with their unpredictable and hilarious This is the End. The great films are certainly worth signaling out, but the good films are not worth forgetting. And even if we're only talking about great films, there were so many released over the course of the last year that having to leave some off the final list was an impossible challenge. So while these ten films are, in my opinion, the best of the 100 releases from 2013 I have seen, there are dozens of others that deserve to be seen. Don't forget to check those out too!

But, it's Oscar Sunday, so it's time to honor the very best. So, without further adieux...

HONORABLE MENTIONS 
(the films that just barely missed the list)
Ain't Them Bodies Saints * American Hustle * August: Osage County * Before Midnight * 
The Conjuring * Prisoners * Spring Breakers * The Way, Way Back

And here are the ten that made the cut...

Friday, February 28, 2014

The 10 Worst Films of 2013

2013 wasn't a particularly outrageous year in terms of offensively bad films, and I find it almost ridiculous to complain about the bad films we did have thrown at us when there were so many wonderful movies released this year too. Yet, here I am. If anything, consider this list a cautionary tale of films to avoid at all costs- you don't want to sit through these movies.

Dishonorable mentions
(Not necessarily awful films, but movies that either missed an opportunity for greatness 
or left me completely disappointed).
Admission * A.C.O.D. * Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues * The Bling Ring * The Counselor * Don Jon * Elysium * Pacific Rim * Star Trek Into Darkness

But none of those come close to these ten films...


10.) Labor Day (dir. Jason Reitman)

Putting a Jason Reitman film on a list that isn't celebrating the best films of the year is breaking my heart a little but, unfortunately, Labor Day is a movie having a massive identity crisis. The film has all the trappings of a sappy romance story, complete with an overly sentimental ending and overwrought declarations of love. But the film never seems to acknowledge the inherent creepiness of its story- and I'm not just talking about the fact that Kate Winslet's onscreen son makes her "Husband for a Day" coupons and reflects on the fact that he can never fulfill his mother's sexual desires. I'm talking about the fact that Josh Brolin's Frank is a criminal that takes a family hostage, only to become a hunky romantic lead twenty minutes later. Reitman seems to think that having Frank fill the shoes left behind by his hostage/love interest's ex-husband and showing young Henry how to do traditional "boy" things will make the audience forgive the fact that he is a convicted murderer taking advantage of a mentally challenged woman and a helpless boy. But none of that works, and the film constantly plays like a straightforward love story, making many sequences creepy and tonally uneven- especially when Frank is tying Kate Winslet's Adele to a chair so that she does not run away, an awkward moment that tries (and fails) to be a sensual moment between the two. Credit must be given to Winslet for trying her hardest to bring life to a poorly written character, but the film is a mess of outdated gender roles and tired clichés. 

9.) Stoker (dir. Chan-wook Park)

What is Stoker? A moody horror film? A psychological thriller? A thinly veiled metaphor about a woman's sexual awakening? I'm asking because I literally have no idea. Stoker is a beautiful looking film, but a film needs more than nice cinematography to stand out in the crowd. Chan-wook Park's English language debut is the art house equivalent of a summer blockbuster- there are a lot of pretty things to look at, but nothing going on underneath. Stoker throws every possible subtext to the wall and hopes that some of it sticks, but it never amounts to much more than a silly horror-soap opera. There are individual moments that are visually pleasing, but you can say the same thing about any of the Transformers movies. A movie should leave you wanting to return to it, but searching "Stoker" on Google Images would be quicker, easier and cheaper than ever having to sit through this again.

8.) The Lone Ranger (dir. Gore Verbinski)

The Lone Ranger is one of the strangest summer blockbusters to hit the big screen in quite some time. Usually films this expensive try to connect with the broadest possible audience, often playing it safe and not doing anything all that new or interesting. Yet, The Lone Ranger, a film with a notoriously high budget and well documented production problems, seems to go out of its way to limit its appeal. One minute, we have a fart joke. The next, a character is threatened with castration. An ongoing gag involves a horse taking swigs of beer. An ongoing plot line involves a man who cuts out the hearts of his victims and eats it. Subplots include an innocent little boy learning about the titular hero, as well as a strangely disturbing look at the genocide of the Native American people. And while I don't have facts to back this up, I'd be willing to bet that this movie has the most threats of rape ever for a Walt Disney Picture. I'm fine with a film trying to be different, but a film can't bounce back and forth between trying to be traditional summer movie fare and an edgy, adult oriented western. And, of course, being about forty minutes too long doesn't exactly help its case.

And don't get me started on the fact that Johnny Depp played Tonto...

7.) Thor: The Dark World (dir. Alan Taylor)

Thor: The Dark World might have the worst line of dialogue from 2013- "You must think I'm a piece of bread that needs to be buttered so heavily." But the film is so bland, unremarkable and poorly written that, by the end of the film, you'd be willing to forgive Anthony Hopkins for ever uttering a line so horrid if it meant getting out of the theater. While virtually every film ever made is a cash grab of some sort, you can practically feel the folks at Marvel reaching into your back pocket and taking all your money. Nobody here seems interested or passionate about what they're doing- the writing is uninspired, the direction is pedestrian, and the action scenes are nothing more than various CGI creatures smashing into one another. It also doesn't help that Chris Hemsworth is an awfully boring star,  and that Natalie Portman gives new meaning to the phrase "phoning it in." But who can blame her? Portman, one of the most talented actresses working today, is stuck playing a woman who becomes unable to care about anything going on around her when her sort-of boyfriend leaves Earth. And the film's obsession with shoving Tom Hiddlestone down our throats grows tiresome. Yes, Hiddlestone is charming and likable, but when characters do stupid things just so the audience can get more time with Loki you are actually doing a disservice to your fans. Thor: The Dark World was meant to be an appetizer for 2015's highly anticipated sequel to The Avengers, but it only served as a reminder to what Joss Whedon brings to the table and all other Marvel films lack: strong female leads, interesting action scenes and stories that actually warrant being told.

6.) Paradise (dir. Diablo Cody)


Diablo Cody is one of the most polarizing figures to enter Hollywood in recent memory, but I've always been a fan of her creative dialogue and interesting characters. Juno was an excellent debut film, and one that has held up remarkably well, while 2011's criminally underrated Young Adult showed signs that the stripper-turned-blogger-turned Oscar winning screenwriter was growing more mature, and more intelligent, with age. So...what happened? Paradise, Cody's latest screenplay and directorial debut, feels like a huge step back for her. The film wants to be an edgy look at religion, focusing on the ridiculousness of mega-churches and uber-conservative Christians, while also remaining optimistic about life and showing the importance of believing in a higher power. But Cody's dialogue lacks bite, wit, well constructed ideas or interesting characters. Cody's scripts are typically confident, but she seems all too self-conscious here, with ideas that only feel half formed and attempts at satire that fall flat. It also doesn't help that her star, Julianne Hough, is hugely miscast. Ellen Page and Charlize Theron both knew how to use Cody's dialogue to their advantage, creating characters that feel quirky but believable. But Hough's narrations sound like a high school student struggling to understand the poem she's reading out loud. With Cody's last fluke, Jennifer's Body, we at least have Karyn Kusama to blame for the film's uneven tones. But, with Paradise, the blame lies solely on Cody's shoulders.

5.) Now You See Me (dir. Louis Leterrier)


Plot twists work because they are surprising, but believable. They have to be grounded in some sense of reality, or at least in the sense of reality created by the movie's screenwriters. That's what makes Now You See Me so frustrating- it has no sense of reality. The plot twists are surprising only because they happen independently of everything that has happened in the movie so far. It's like watching a "whodunit" mystery, only to have the killer be a character that was never mentioned before the big reveal. For a film with a massive ensemble cast of talented actors, it's pretty remarkable how little fun Now You See Me is. Granted, the script doesn't exactly ask these actors to do all that much, as these characters are incredibly one note and, in most cases, annoying as hell. Eisenberg in particular comes off as grating- his character is supposed to be the hero, but he constantly comes off as an annoying teenager you want to smack. But, really, Now You See Me just feels cheesy and poorly written. I have no interest in watching a film built around its twist ending only to find out that the twist was impossible for me to predict the whole time.

4.) Girl Most Likely (dir. Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini)


As you watch Girl Most Likely, it will seem pretty clear that the film is a comedy of some sort. After all, Kristen Wiig is a successful comedian, Annette Bening is doing wacky things and saying things that aren't socially acceptable to say, Darren Criss is singing the Backstreet Boys in eyeliner and Matt Dillon is wearing a weird looking mustache. But this comedy is missing one major thing: jokes. The characters in Girl Most Likely are all morons, and the film mistakenly thinks that watching these characters do and say stupid things will be amusing for the audience but, really, it's just sad. The "joke" sequences are all unbearably long and stretched out, creating scenes that are just embarrassing for everyone involved and, especially, the audience. Wiig's Imogene is one of the strangest characters of the year- a woman who is meant to be quirky, but is so bizarre it's a minor miracle she's managed to live a reasonably normal life for as long as she has. Meanwhile, the script shoves a totally unbelievable romance between her and Criss, a poorly developed mother/daughter subplot with a wasted Bening, and an ending that is so strange I can't believe people as talented as this would actually sign on. Thankfully, this film flew almost entirely under the radar as I'm afraid it'd destroy Wiig's credibility as a leading lady. It's a disaster.

3.) Gangster Squad (dir. Ruben Fleischer)


Watching Gangster Squad is like attending a really expensive Hollywood Halloween party, where all the stars invited have to dress as 1950s gangsters and drunkenly try to imitate the actors from that era. Josh Brolin, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone and Sean Penn are all talented actors, but they are all embarrassingly bad in this overly stylized and incredibly uninteresting movie. The dialogue in the film is awful, the sets and costumes feel fake, and the film's uneven mixture of "do-gooder" heroism and disturbing violence becomes distracting and uncomfortable to watch. By the end, the film dissolves into nothing more than a contest between Sean Penn and Ryan Gosling to see who could possibly go more over the top with their roles, while Emma Stone is asked to do nothing but make sexual double entendres and look good in a red dress. Josh Brolin's hero is irritating where he should be inspiring, and the plot is almost entirely undeveloped. Do yourself a favor- if you're itching to watch good actors beat up bad guys in a period piece, rent The Untouchables. Or, if you really want to watch something good, check out Curtis Hanson's masterpiece, LA Confidential. But never, under any circumstance, rent Gangster Squad, unless you desperately want to discover how a two-time Oscar winner like Sean Penn could ever give a performance this bad.

2.) Texas Chainsaw 3D (dir. John Luessenhop)


I don't expect much from slasher films- stupid teenagers, ridiculously violent deaths and gratuitous nudity will usually be enough for me to enjoy myself in some way. But I do expect one thing from slasher films, and all films in general: competence. And Texas Chainsaw 3D is such an incompetent film that I almost can't believe somebody at Lionsgate watched it and thought, "Yep, this is fit for release." The movie feels unfinished. The film is directed terribly, features amateurish acting, and the death scenes all feel like they haven't even gone through the special effects or editing process yet. Dead bodies look like mannequins, and the gore looks like something you could buy at a local costume store around Halloween. But the most offensive thing about Texas Chainsaw 3D is the plot- a storyline so over the top and convoluted, yet so poorly thought out, that I'd almost prefer no plot at all. Please, slasher-remake writers, try to make up for the clichés of your genre with witty dialogue and interesting characters- don't try and surprise everyone with major third act twists. But, on the bright side, it did provide one of the funniest moments from every film this year. Unfortunately, that scene was not supposed to make us laugh.

1.) The Canyons (dir. Paul Schrader)


What do you get when you combine a porn star, a celebrated author turned hated Twitter user, the writer of Taxi Driver and Lindsay Lohan? Apparently, the worst movie of 2013. The Canyons is 99 minutes of nonsense. IMDb claims that there is a plot, but I failed to notice one. What I did notice was a never ending parade of sex scenes, full frontal nudity, inane dialogue masquerading as intellectual discussion and the horrifying objectification and misuse of a former child star with a drug problem. I'm told Bret Easton Ellis is an intelligent man, and the adaptations of his work lead me to believe that such a claim must be true, but his script does not do much to back up that claim. The film seems to be asking questions about society and the way modern technology has made us obsessed with the lives of others, but all that shows up on screen is a bunch of twenty-somethings complaining, typically while naked. And while the sex scenes are trying to be shocking and titillating, they often come off as boring or ridiculous- which is even more surprising given the fact that the film has porn star James Deen in one of the lead roles. But one can only listen to so much horrible dialogue and stare at James Deen's penis/ Lindsay Lohan's breasts for so long before they start to watch the clock and hope for the film's end credits. At the very least, the film reminds us that Lindsay Lohan is a fairly talented actress with a lot of untapped potential, and now that she's gone to rehab and has remained clean she has the potential for a major career comeback. It's just a shame that her latest film appearance is in a film this disgusting.

Well, there you have it. I'll be posting my Top 10 of the year this Sunday! Happy Oscar weekend, movie nerds. Thanks for reading!

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Updating My Oscar Predictions


We're getting into the heat of Oscar season, with only The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle going unseen (though the latter has held test screenings and some reactions are available online). While the Best Picture race seems to have come down to a duel between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, there is a lot of heavy competition this year in a variety of categories, and it's still too early to call anybody a frontrunner. Once we get into December and find out who's nominated for Golden Globes, SAGs and Critic Choice Awards we may have a better idea as to who is a full-on threat and who's a likely snub, but for now we're just going to have to do a lot of speculating. So, without further adieu-

THE SCREENPLAYS-

In the adapted category, 12 Years a Slave poises a fairly big threat to the rest of the competition. The Best Picture contender will, most likely, emerge the frontrunner as we delve deeper into the season, and it's hard to imagine any other movie coming out as a major threat. The biggest threat at the moment is Before Midnight, but that film has very little chance in other major categories, whereas 12 Years a Slave will be a major player for the awards season as a whole. Before Midnight is almost guaranteed a nomination, but a win just doesn't seem likely.

Also likely to be nominated is Philomena, a supposedly heartwarming dramadey that has the unstoppable force of The Weinstein Company behind it. With a Thanksgiving release date, the film is entering the Oscar fray at the perfect time and will likely remain in conversation for the rest of the year. Still waiting to be seen, The Wolf of Wall Street's screenplay could present itself as a threat (assuming the film delivers, of course). We've also got Captain Phillips and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty to consider, as well as August: Osage County and Labor Day, though the less than positive reviews for those two have made me worry about their chances.

Moving on to Original Screenplay, competition is proving to be pretty fierce. Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis and Blue Jasmine are all right up the Academy's alley, while the unseen American Hustle will likely appeal to them as well, especially since many view Russell as overdue for an award after losing in the Adapted category last year. There is also Spike Jonze's Her to consider. While the film isn't exactly Oscar friendly, the Academy honored Charlie Kauffman's screenplays for Being John Malkovich and Adaptation., and the reviews for Her have been unanimously positive. It's definitely a contender. There is, of course, also Gravity, but the fact that so much of the film involves special effects as opposed to dialogue makes me doubt it has a serious chance in the category (though, rest assured, it will be amongst the biggest films at the ceremony). Potential underdogs include Enough Said, Dallas Buyers Club and Lee Daniels' The Butler, though they would need a pretty big push to break into this competitive field.

Current predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:
  1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Richard Linklater, Julie Deply and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
  3. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
  4. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
  5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
Current predictions for Best Original Screenplay:
  1. Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
  2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
  3. Spike Jonze, Her
  4. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
  5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks
BEST DIRECTOR:

Similar to the Best Picture category,  Best Director has largely been narrowed down to two contenders: Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron. Both are virtually locked for a nomination, though it is perhaps too early to declare either a lock for the win. But as for the rest of the field? It's a bit of a bloodbath. Veterans like Martin Scorsese and the Coen brothers will be duking it out with relatively new favorites like David O. Russell and Paul Greengrass. Meanwhile, Spike Jonze, J.C. Chandor, Alexander Payne, and Lee Daniels all have a (slight) chance at breaking in to the field. But the contender I'm most interested in is John Lee Hancock- Saving Mr. Banks sounds like it will be an Academy favorite, and if they respond to it particularly well I could see it breaking into the top five. It certainly doesn't hurt that Saving Mr. Banks will be fresh in voters' memories, whereas films like Captain Phillips won't be as relevant as they were three months ago. It may be an unpopular pick at the moment, but I have a feeling that Hancock will surprise over the course of the next month and become a major player in this year's race.

Current predictions for Best Director:
  1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
  2. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
  3. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
  4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
  5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

I'd like to call Lupita Nyong'o a lock for the win. My review of 12 Years a Slave should be posted by Friday, but I will say now that I just can't imagine a scenario where she doesn't come out the victor. But, this is the Academy, and they've had more than their fair share of surprising snubs. So, Nyong'o is no lock- but she is the frontrunner. Her biggest competition, however, is none other than Oprah Winfrey, who is not only a major star in a baity role but a role that will have the Weinstein's backing it. It's a tough call, but Oprah could swoop in and take the prize home. After that, it's not quite that competitive, but it's a fairly crowded field. Jennifer Lawrence has spent most of the second half of the year in the spotlight, and is arguably the biggest star in Hollywood at the moment. While there aren't any official reviews for American Hustle, prescreening buzz indicates that she is the highlight of the movie and the Academy clearly enjoys her work. She could certainly earn her third nomination this year. June Squibb has also been named the highlight of Nebraska by a number of critics, though the film isn't as Oscar friendly as some of the other movies this year, which could work against her. Some other possibilities include Julia Roberts, Octavia Spencer, Naomie Harris, Sarah Paulson, Margo Martindale and (maybe) Scarlett Johansson's voice work in Her. 

Current predictions for Best Supporting Actress:
  1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  2. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
  3. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  4. June Squibb, Nebraska
  5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The butler
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Best Supporting Actor has largely become a three man war between Jared Leto, Michael Fassbender and Tom Hanks. All three are virtually locks for a nomination. If I had to predict a winner, I'd bet on Leto, who is the heart and soul of Dallas Buyers Club (my review will be up by Saturday). But, as I mentioned before, Saving Mr. Banks will appeal to the Academy quite a bit, and Hanks is a legend who hasn't been in the spotlight for quite some time. Fassbender, meanwhile, could get the trophy if the Academy goes crazy for 12 Years a Slave, but his horrifying performance could cost him a few votes, not to mention the fact that he does not plan on campaigning for the win. He's bound to be nominated, but is the least likely of the three to win. After that, it's a bit of a guessing game. Barkhad Abdi could find his way into the Top 5, as could James Gandolfini or John Goodman, but that will largely depend on how they fare at the precursor award ceremonies. I'm also interested in seeing how critics respond to Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill once their respective movies premiere. I'm not anticipating much from Hill, but Cooper looks incredible in the American Hustle footage, making me think he could earn a second Oscar nomination. Finally, as a potential dark horse candidate, Woody Harrelson could sneak in there, but I have a feeling the supposedly dark and unfriendly Out of the Furnace will come and go in December a la Killing Them Softly. 

Current predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
  1. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  2. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
  3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  4. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
BEST ACTRESS:

Many seem to think that Sandra Bullock is a serious threat to Cate Blanchett for the win, but I don't buy it. Blanchett is still the clear frontrunner to me, and while Bullock may be nominated I can't see the Academy giving her a second Best Actress statuette so quickly, especially for a film that is largely impressive due to its special effects. The only potential upset that I could see happening is one that involves Judi Dench, who has been receiving raves for her work in Philomena. The Weinsteins have toppled frontrunners a number of times (Exhibit A: Streep beating out Viola Davis back in 2012), but we'll have to see if Dench can campaign hard enough over the course of the next few months. From there, we have four potential nominees: Amy Adams, Emma Thompson, Adele Exarchopolous and Meryl Streep. Having been nominated four times over the past seven years, Adams seems to be an Academy favorite, and with the help of David O. Russell, who has a talent for getting his actors nominated, she could find herself with a fifth bid for the win. Thompson, meanwhile, has been largely absent from awards season for quite some time, but she has a baity role in a feel-good film. The odds aren't exactly in Exarchopolous' favor at the moment, but Blue is the Warmest Color has some passionate supporters and she could find her way into the Top 5. And, finally, we have this to consider: can Streep get nominated for a film that isn't receiving positive reviews? I'm inclined to go with "yes" for now, but that could certainly change after the SAGs and Golden Globes. 

Current predictions for Best Actress:
  1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  3. Judi Dench, Philomena
  4. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
  5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
BEST ACTOR:

As of right now, Chiwetel Ejiofor seems like the guy to beat.The buzz around one time major threat Robert Redford has begun to die down, largely due to the film's muted box office results. It will be interesting to see if Redford makes it into the lineups for any of the precursor awards and, if he doesn't, his chances for a Best Actor bid are slim to none. But, for now, he's certainly within the Top 5 biggest contenders. Also climbing the ranks is Matthew McConaughey, who will likely solidify his career transformation with his first Oscar nomination. Bruce Dern also appears to be a serious presence within the Top 5, especially since the Academy seems to love Alexander Payne. The biggest question amongst the Top 5, however, is if Tom Hanks can earn himself a nomination in both the Lead and Supporting category. It seems likely at the moment- but, once American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street premiers, that could change. On the outskirts of the Top 5 are Idris Elba, Joaquin Phoenix and Forest Whitaker. 

Current predictions for Best Actor:
  1. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
  3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
  5. Robert Redford, All is Lost
BEST PICTURE:

At this point, it feels redundant to explain my rankings for Best Picture as I've mentioned their standings throughout the article. So, here are my predictions for what will make the cut for the biggest award of the night. As of right now, I'm predicting nine films to be nominated:

  1. 12 Years a Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. Captain Phillips
  4. Gravity
  5. Inside Llewyn Davis
  6. Lee Daniels' The Butler
  7. Philomena
  8. Saving Mr. Banks
  9. The Wolf of Wall Street
Early next month, I'll begin predicting the remaining categories in the field. I'll also be returning to reviewing full time, with reviews for 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyers Club to be posted over the weekend. 

In the meantime, follow me on Twitter and Letterboxd. 

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Quick Oscar Update

I've fallen behind on my blogging again (sigh) but with so much recent Oscar news I felt compelled to (quickly) post some updates to my Oscar brackets, now including the Screenplay categories. I don't have time to really post any analysis but here are some of the news stories I'm taking into account-

  • Monuments Men being delayed to 2014
  • The Wolf of Wall Street apparently being ready in time for Christmas 2013
  • Saving Mr. Banks premiering to mostly positive reviews
  • Michael Fassbender's announcement that he will not be campaigning for an Oscar this year
  • All is Lost flopping at the box office
BEST PICTURE:
  1. 12 Years a Slave
  2. Gravity
  3. American Hustle
  4. The Wolf of Wall Street
  5. Saving Mr. Banks
  6. Captain Phillips
  7. Philomena 
  8. Rush
  9. Inside Llewyn Davis
  10. Lee Daniels' The Butler
  11. Dallas Buyers Club
  12. Labor Day
  13. Fruitvale Station
  14. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  15. All is Lost
  16. Her 
  17. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
  18. August: Osage County
  19. Prisoners
  20. Blue Jasmine
  21. Nebraska
  22. The Past
  23. Out of the Furnace
  24. The Counselor
  25. Before Midnight
  26. Lone Survivor
  27. The Fifth Estate
  28. Diana
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:
  1. Chiewetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
  3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
  4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
  5. Robert Redford, All is Lost
  6. Christian Bale, American Hustle
  7. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  8. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
  9. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
  10. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
  11. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
  12. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
  13. Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
  14. Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
  15. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
  16. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:
  1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
  2. Judi Dench, Philomena
  3. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
  4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
  6. Amy Adams, American Hustle
  7. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
  8. Berenice Bejo, The Past
  9. Adéle Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
  10. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
  11. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
  12. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
  1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
  2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
  3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
  4. Daniel Brühl, Rush
  5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
  6. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
  7. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
  8. Josh Brolin, Labor Day
  9. John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
  10. George Clooney, Gravity
  11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
  12. Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
  13. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
  14. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
  15. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
  16. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
  17. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
  18. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
  19. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
  20. Alec Baldwin, Blue Jasmine
  21. Steve Coogan, Philomena
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:
  1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
  3. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
  4. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
  6. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
  7. June Squibb, Nebraska
  8. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
  9. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
  10. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
  11. Amy Adams, Her
  12. Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
  13. Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave
  14. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
  15. Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
  16. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
  17. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
  18. Emily Watson, The Book Thief
  19. Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
  20. Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips
BEST DIRECTOR:
  1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
  2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
  3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
  4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
  5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
  6. Ron Howard, Rush
  7. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
  8. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
  9. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
  10. Stephen Frears, Philomena
  11. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
  12. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
  13. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
  14. Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
  15. Spike Jonze, Her
  16. Ridley Scott, The Counselor

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
  1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
  2. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
  3. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
  4. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
  5. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
  6. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
  7. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
  8. Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
  9. William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  10. Michael Petroni, The Book Thief
  11. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
  1. Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
  2. Spike Jonze, Her
  3. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
  4. Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel, Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
  6. Alfonso and Jonás Cuarón, Gravity
  7. Danny Strong, Lee Daniels' The Butler
  8. Peter Morgan, Rush
  9. Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor
  10. Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
  11. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
  12. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
  13. Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners
  14. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
  15. Asghar Farhadi, The Past
  16. Brad Inglesby and Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
  17. Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
  18. Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
  19. Jeff Nichols, Mud
I'll get back to blogging more frequently soon, especially once I start to see the many "Oscar movies" this year.

Monday, October 14, 2013

Post Film Festival Oscar Update


Film festival season is over and a majority of the Oscar contenders this year have been screened. While we're still waiting for American Hustle, Monuments Men, Out of the Furnace and The Counselor to premiere, the fact that so many of these films have been seen make predicting (slightly) easier. There were some changes over the past month, most notably the removal of Grace of Monaco and Foxcatcher from the 2013 release calendar. And there is the question of whether or not The Wolf of Wall Street will actually be released this year. But we're still starting to see some front runners.

But in regards to Martin Scorsese's upcoming drama, I removed The Wolf of Wall Street from the Top 5 (or the Top 10, in regards to Best Picture) until we get confirmation on a release date. If the film is still in play this year, it will undoubtedly be a major contender. But we have no way of knowing that yet.

Starting with Best Picture, 12 Years a Slave remains the frontrunner for Best Picture. It's a critically lauded prestige movie, and it will difficult to topple. Alfonso Caurón's Gravity will try its hardest to do just that, and the film's critical acclaim and massive box office receipts will help, though I still can't imagine the Academy rewarding a film largely centered around special effects. And while American Hustle has yet to be seen by critics, early word of mouth from test screenings suggests that it will be a major contender for the prize. Just outside the top three we have the critically acclaimed Captain Phillips and Philomena, neither of which I see as threats for Best Picture, though they will both be talked about throughout the season. Philomena's move to Thanksgiving weekend for release (the same as last year's big Weinstein film, Silver Linings Playbook, suggests a considerable amount of confidence. I also think that Rush stands a chance, though it'll need to maintain buzz throughout the season, while both Inside Llewyn Davis and Dallas Buyers Club stand the best chance amongst the the "smaller" critically acclaimed movies that have yet to see a domestic release. Rounding out the Top 10, we have two "lighter" films that seem like Oscar bait and could definitely be in play for a nomination- Lee Daniels' The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks. From there, films 11 through 19 have minor shots, while the bottom two's chances are all but dead.

Moving into the acting categories, not much has changed though it seems that Hanks now has a better shot at breaking into the Best Actor category as he does Best Supporting Actor. His work in Captain Phillips has been raved about, and it's hard to imagine him not getting in at the moment. Still, Best Actor is a competitive category. While my top two, Chiewetel Ejiofor and Matthew McConaughey, seem like locks at the moment, the rest of the bracket is tough to place. Idris Elba, Michael B. Jordan and Forest Whitacker all have a decent shot, and if the Academy falls for Her, Nebraska or Inside Llewyn Davis, who knows what could happen. Still, I feel that Robert Redford and Christian Bale are solid picks for my Top 5 at the moment, though they may not stay that way for long.

In Best Actress, I feel that Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench are all but locks and would be willing to bet that they will be the two contenders fighting for the win. Both are highly respected actors, and both have baity roles. It'll be an intense battle no doubt. After that, I'm not quite sure what to do with Sandra Bullock. Part of me can't see how she could miss out, while another part feels that special effects will outshine her solid performance. But, Bullock has an "America's sweetheart" persona, which could go a long way with campaigning, so I can imagine a scenario where she gets in... for now. But that largely depends on how critics react to Amy Adams and Emma Thompson's performances. Both their films have gone unseen and both actresses are highly respected in the field. If the films (and, of course, their performances) are well receive, these two could certainly get a nomination, though I'm giving Adams the slight edge at the moment. Rounding out my Top 5 is Meryl Streep, who's work in August: Osage County begs the question: can a legend like Streep get nominated for a film that isn't receiving necessarily strong reviews? I'm saying yes, but only right now.

Best Supporting Actor seems to belong to Jared Leto, who's performance in Dallas Buyers Club seems to be the heart of a film I could see the Academy falling in love with. His main competition- Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave- certainly stands a chance, though the Academy would no doubt lean towards a heartwarming performance as opposed to a terrifying one. Still, it seems like both men will be nominated. But from there, it's a guessing game. Rush's weak box office makes me think the film won't maintain any momentum as the year goes on, questioning whether or not Brühl will still manage to squeeze in. There's also the question of whether or not Tom Hanks can score double nominations this year with Captain Phillips in lead and Saving Mr. Banks in supporting. Meanwhile, Bradley Cooper rounds out my Top 5, though the fact that American Hustle hasn't screened yet makes me hesitant to place it so high. I contemplated placing James Gandolfini in for Enough Said, and then Barkhar Abdi for Captain Phillips, but David O. Russell's track record for nominated performances convinced me to but Cooper above the rest. Still, this race is far from over and this category will undoubtedly change, especially when ensemble films like Out of the Furnace and Monuments Men premiere.

Best Supporting Actress has largely remained the same, with Oprah Winfrey and Lupita Nyong'o still duking it out at the top two spots. Meanwhile, the most recent American Hustle trailer convinced me to take Jennifer Lawrence's performance more seriously. But, after that, it's a pretty difficult category to nail down. Naomie Harris and Julia Roberts seem like safe picks (especially with the Weinsteins behind them), but June Squibb and Carey Mulligan could easily sneak in later on.

But the toughest category to predict is Best Director, simply because The Wolf of Wall Street's absence leaves a gaping hole in my predictions. Alfonso Caurón and Steve McQueen both seem like locks at the moment, and David O. Russell also has a huge chance at getting in if American Hustle succeeds. Assuming the film maintains momentum throughout the rest of the year, Paul Greengrass could get in for Captain Phillips. But Scorsese, who once seemed like a lock, means that a fifth position is virtually wide open, with many major directors competing for the spot. I'm giving the slight edge to Ron Howard at the moment, though it could have easily gone to the Coen Brothers, George Clooney, Stephen Frears, or a wildcard nomination like Jean-Marc Vallée or John Lee Hancock. Only time will tell.

Tomorrow, I'll start crafting brackets for the screenplay categories. Thanks for reading! And here are my brackets: