Updating My Oscar Predictions

We're getting into the heat of Oscar season, with only The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle going unseen (though the latter has held test screenings and some reactions are available online). While the Best Picture race seems to have come down to a duel between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, there is a lot of heavy competition this year in a variety of categories, and it's still too early to call anybody a frontrunner. Once we get into December and find out who's nominated for Golden Globes, SAGs and Critic Choice Awards we may have a better idea as to who is a full-on threat and who's a likely snub, but for now we're just going to have to do a lot of speculating. So, without further adieu-

THE SCREENPLAYS-

In the adapted category, 12 Years a Slave poises a fairly big threat to the rest of the competition. The Best Picture contender will, most likely, emerge the frontrunner as we delve deeper into the season, and it's hard to imagine any other movie coming out as a major threat. The biggest threat at the moment is Before Midnight, but that film has very little chance in other major categories, whereas 12 Years a Slave will be a major player for the awards season as a whole. Before Midnight is almost guaranteed a nomination, but a win just doesn't seem likely.

Also likely to be nominated is Philomena, a supposedly heartwarming dramadey that has the unstoppable force of The Weinstein Company behind it. With a Thanksgiving release date, the film is entering the Oscar fray at the perfect time and will likely remain in conversation for the rest of the year. Still waiting to be seen, The Wolf of Wall Street's screenplay could present itself as a threat (assuming the film delivers, of course). We've also got Captain Phillips and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty to consider, as well as August: Osage County and Labor Day, though the less than positive reviews for those two have made me worry about their chances.

Moving on to Original Screenplay, competition is proving to be pretty fierce. Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska, Inside Llewyn Davis and Blue Jasmine are all right up the Academy's alley, while the unseen American Hustle will likely appeal to them as well, especially since many view Russell as overdue for an award after losing in the Adapted category last year. There is also Spike Jonze's Her to consider. While the film isn't exactly Oscar friendly, the Academy honored Charlie Kauffman's screenplays for Being John Malkovich and Adaptation., and the reviews for Her have been unanimously positive. It's definitely a contender. There is, of course, also Gravity, but the fact that so much of the film involves special effects as opposed to dialogue makes me doubt it has a serious chance in the category (though, rest assured, it will be amongst the biggest films at the ceremony). Potential underdogs include Enough Said, Dallas Buyers Club and Lee Daniels' The Butler, though they would need a pretty big push to break into this competitive field.

Current predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
2. Richard Linklater, Julie Deply and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
3. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
4. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
5. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Current predictions for Best Original Screenplay:

1. Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
2. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
3. Spike Jonze, Her
4. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST DIRECTOR:

Similar to the Best Picture category,  Best Director has largely been narrowed down to two contenders: Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron. Both are virtually locked for a nomination, though it is perhaps too early to declare either a lock for the win. But as for the rest of the field? It's a bit of a bloodbath. Veterans like Martin Scorsese and the Coen brothers will be duking it out with relatively new favorites like David O. Russell and Paul Greengrass. Meanwhile, Spike Jonze, J.C. Chandor, Alexander Payne, and Lee Daniels all have a (slight) chance at breaking in to the field. But the contender I'm most interested in is John Lee Hancock- Saving Mr. Banks sounds like it will be an Academy favorite, and if they respond to it particularly well I could see it breaking into the top five. It certainly doesn't hurt that Saving Mr. Banks will be fresh in voters' memories, whereas films like Captain Phillips won't be as relevant as they were three months ago. It may be an unpopular pick at the moment, but I have a feeling that Hancock will surprise over the course of the next month and become a major player in this year's race.

Current predictions for Best Director:

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
2. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
3. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

I'd like to call Lupita Nyong'o a lock for the win. My review of 12 Years a Slave should be posted by Friday, but I will say now that I just can't imagine a scenario where she doesn't come out the victor. But, this is the Academy, and they've had more than their fair share of surprising snubs. So, Nyong'o is no lock- but she is the frontrunner. Her biggest competition, however, is none other than Oprah Winfrey, who is not only a major star in a baity role but a role that will have the Weinstein's backing it. It's a tough call, but Oprah could swoop in and take the prize home. After that, it's not quite that competitive, but it's a fairly crowded field. Jennifer Lawrence has spent most of the second half of the year in the spotlight, and is arguably the biggest star in Hollywood at the moment. While there aren't any official reviews for American Hustle, prescreening buzz indicates that she is the highlight of the movie and the Academy clearly enjoys her work. She could certainly earn her third nomination this year. June Squibb has also been named the highlight of Nebraska by a number of critics, though the film isn't as Oscar friendly as some of the other movies this year, which could work against her. Some other possibilities include Julia Roberts, Octavia Spencer, Naomie Harris, Sarah Paulson, Margo Martindale and (maybe) Scarlett Johansson's voice work in Her. 

Current predictions for Best Supporting Actress:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
2. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
3. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
4. June Squibb, Nebraska
5. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The butler

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Best Supporting Actor has largely become a three man war between Jared Leto, Michael Fassbender and Tom Hanks. All three are virtually locks for a nomination. If I had to predict a winner, I'd bet on Leto, who is the heart and soul of Dallas Buyers Club (my review will be up by Saturday). But, as I mentioned before, Saving Mr. Banks will appeal to the Academy quite a bit, and Hanks is a legend who hasn't been in the spotlight for quite some time. Fassbender, meanwhile, could get the trophy if the Academy goes crazy for 12 Years a Slave, but his horrifying performance could cost him a few votes, not to mention the fact that he does not plan on campaigning for the win. He's bound to be nominated, but is the least likely of the three to win. After that, it's a bit of a guessing game. Barkhad Abdi could find his way into the Top 5, as could James Gandolfini or John Goodman, but that will largely depend on how they fare at the precursor award ceremonies. I'm also interested in seeing how critics respond to Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill once their respective movies premiere. I'm not anticipating much from Hill, but Cooper looks incredible in the American Hustle footage, making me think he could earn a second Oscar nomination. Finally, as a potential dark horse candidate, Woody Harrelson could sneak in there, but I have a feeling the supposedly dark and unfriendly Out of the Furnace will come and go in December a la Killing Them Softly. 

Current predictions for Best Supporting Actor:

1. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
2. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
4. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ACTRESS:

Many seem to think that Sandra Bullock is a serious threat to Cate Blanchett for the win, but I don't buy it. Blanchett is still the clear frontrunner to me, and while Bullock may be nominated I can't see the Academy giving her a second Best Actress statuette so quickly, especially for a film that is largely impressive due to its special effects. The only potential upset that I could see happening is one that involves Judi Dench, who has been receiving raves for her work in Philomena. The Weinsteins have toppled frontrunners a number of times (Exhibit A: Streep beating out Viola Davis back in 2012), but we'll have to see if Dench can campaign hard enough over the course of the next few months. From there, we have four potential nominees: Amy Adams, Emma Thompson, Adele Exarchopolous and Meryl Streep. Having been nominated four times over the past seven years, Adams seems to be an Academy favorite, and with the help of David O. Russell, who has a talent for getting his actors nominated, she could find herself with a fifth bid for the win. Thompson, meanwhile, has been largely absent from awards season for quite some time, but she has a baity role in a feel-good film. The odds aren't exactly in Exarchopolous' favor at the moment, but Blue is the Warmest Color has some passionate supporters and she could find her way into the Top 5. And, finally, we have this to consider: can Streep get nominated for a film that isn't receiving positive reviews? I'm inclined to go with "yes" for now, but that could certainly change after the SAGs and Golden Globes. 

Current predictions for Best Actress:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Judi Dench, Philomena
4. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
5. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

BEST ACTOR:

As of right now, Chiwetel Ejiofor seems like the guy to beat.The buzz around one time major threat Robert Redford has begun to die down, largely due to the film's muted box office results. It will be interesting to see if Redford makes it into the lineups for any of the precursor awards and, if he doesn't, his chances for a Best Actor bid are slim to none. But, for now, he's certainly within the Top 5 biggest contenders. Also climbing the ranks is Matthew McConaughey, who will likely solidify his career transformation with his first Oscar nomination. Bruce Dern also appears to be a serious presence within the Top 5, especially since the Academy seems to love Alexander Payne. The biggest question amongst the Top 5, however, is if Tom Hanks can earn himself a nomination in both the Lead and Supporting category. It seems likely at the moment- but, once American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street premiers, that could change. On the outskirts of the Top 5 are Idris Elba, Joaquin Phoenix and Forest Whitaker. 

Current predictions for Best Actor:

1. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
4. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
5. Robert Redford, All is Lost

BEST PICTURE:

At this point, it feels redundant to explain my rankings for Best Picture as I've mentioned their standings throughout the article. So, here are my predictions for what will make the cut for the biggest award of the night. As of right now, I'm predicting nine films to be nominated:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. American Hustle
3. Captain Phillips
4. Gravity
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Lee Daniels' The Butler
7. Philomena
8. Saving Mr. Banks
9. The Wolf of Wall Street

Early next month, I'll begin predicting the remaining categories in the field. I'll also be returning to reviewing full time, with reviews for 12 Years a Slave and Dallas Buyers Club to be posted over the weekend. 

In the meantime, follow me on Twitter and Letterboxd. 

Quick Oscar Update

I've fallen behind on my blogging again (sigh) but with so much recent Oscar news I felt compelled to (quickly) post some updates to my Oscar brackets, now including the Screenplay categories. I don't have time to really post any analysis but here are some of the news stories I'm taking into account-

• Monuments Men being delayed to 2014
• The Wolf of Wall Street apparently being ready in time for Christmas 2013
• Saving Mr. Banks premiering to mostly positive reviews
• Michael Fassbender's announcement that he will not be campaigning for an Oscar this year
• All is Lost flopping at the box office

BEST PICTURE:

1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. American Hustle
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Saving Mr. Banks
6. Captain Phillips
7. Philomena 
8. Rush
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
10. Lee Daniels' The Butler
11. Dallas Buyers Club
12. Labor Day
13. Fruitvale Station
14. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
15. All is Lost
16. Her 
17. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
18. August: Osage County
19. Prisoners
20. Blue Jasmine
21. Nebraska
22. The Past
23. Out of the Furnace
24. The Counselor
25. Before Midnight
26. Lone Survivor
27. The Fifth Estate
28. Diana

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Chiewetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
2. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
3. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Robert Redford, All is Lost
6. Christian Bale, American Hustle
7. Idris Elba, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
8. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
9. Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler
10. Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
11. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
12. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
13. Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
14. Ben Stiller, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
15. Michael Fassbender, The Counselor
16. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Fifth Estate

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Judi Dench, Philomena
3. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
4. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
6. Amy Adams, American Hustle
7. Kate Winslet, Labor Day
8. Berenice Bejo, The Past
9. Adéle Exarchopolous, Blue is the Warmest Color
10. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
11. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
12. Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
3. Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
4. Daniel Brühl, Rush
5. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
6. James Gandolfini, Enough Said
7. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
8. Josh Brolin, Labor Day
9. John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
10. George Clooney, Gravity
11. Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
12. Chris Cooper, August: Osage County
13. Sam Rockwell, The Way, Way Back
14. Benedict Cumberbatch, August: Osage County
15. Jeremy Renner, American Hustle
16. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
17. Javier Bardem, The Counselor
18. Woody Harrelson, Out of the Furnace
19. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
20. Alec Baldwin, Blue Jasmine
21. Steve Coogan, Philomena

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
2. Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler
3. Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
4. Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
5. Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
6. Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
7. June Squibb, Nebraska
8. Margo Martindale, August: Osage County
9. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
10. Cameron Diaz, The Counselor
11. Amy Adams, Her
12. Felicity Jones, The Invisible Woman
13. Alfre Woodard, 12 Years a Slave
14. Jennifer Garner, Dallas Buyers Club
15. Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station
16. Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
17. Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
18. Emily Watson, The Book Thief
19. Laura Linney, The Fifth Estate
20. Catherine Keener, Captain Phillips

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
2. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
3. David O. Russell, American Hustle
4. Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
5. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
6. Ron Howard, Rush
7. John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks
8. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
9. Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
10. Stephen Frears, Philomena
11. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
12. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
13. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
14. Lee Daniels, Lee Daniels' The Butler
15. Spike Jonze, Her
16. Ridley Scott, The Counselor

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
2. Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
3. Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
5. Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
6. Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
7. Jason Reitman, Labor Day
8. Steve Conrad, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9. William Nicholson, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
10. Michael Petroni, The Book Thief
11. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Spectacular Now

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Eric Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
2. Spike Jonze, Her
3. Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
4. Sue Smith and Kelly Marcel, Saving Mr. Banks
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Alfonso and Jonás Cuarón, Gravity
7. Danny Strong, Lee Daniels' The Butler
8. Peter Morgan, Rush
9. Cormac McCarthy, The Counselor
10. Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
11. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
12. Bob Nelson, Nebraska
13. Aaron Guzikowski, Prisoners
14. J.C. Chandor, All is Lost
15. Asghar Farhadi, The Past
16. Brad Inglesby and Scott Cooper, Out of the Furnace
17. Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
18. Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Way, Way Back
19. Jeff Nichols, Mud

I'll get back to blogging more frequently soon, especially once I start to see the many "Oscar movies" this year.

Post Film Festival Oscar Update

Film festival season is over and a majority of the Oscar contenders this year have been screened. While we're still waiting for American Hustle, Monuments Men, Out of the Furnace and The Counselor to premiere, the fact that so many of these films have been seen make predicting (slightly) easier. There were some changes over the past month, most notably the removal of Grace of Monaco and Foxcatcher from the 2013 release calendar. And there is the question of whether or not The Wolf of Wall Street will actually be released this year. But we're still starting to see some front runners.

But in regards to Martin Scorsese's upcoming drama, I removed The Wolf of Wall Street from the Top 5 (or the Top 10, in regards to Best Picture) until we get confirmation on a release date. If the film is still in play this year, it will undoubtedly be a major contender. But we have no way of knowing that yet.

Starting with Best Picture, 12 Years a Slave remains the frontrunner for Best Picture. It's a critically lauded prestige movie, and it will difficult to topple. Alfonso Caurón's Gravity will try its hardest to do just that, and the film's critical acclaim and massive box office receipts will help, though I still can't imagine the Academy rewarding a film largely centered around special effects. And while American Hustle has yet to be seen by critics, early word of mouth from test screenings suggests that it will be a major contender for the prize. Just outside the top three we have the critically acclaimed Captain Phillips and Philomena, neither of which I see as threats for Best Picture, though they will both be talked about throughout the season. Philomena's move to Thanksgiving weekend for release (the same as last year's big Weinstein film, Silver Linings Playbook, suggests a considerable amount of confidence. I also think that Rush stands a chance, though it'll need to maintain buzz throughout the season, while both Inside Llewyn Davis and Dallas Buyers Club stand the best chance amongst the the "smaller" critically acclaimed movies that have yet to see a domestic release. Rounding out the Top 10, we have two "lighter" films that seem like Oscar bait and could definitely be in play for a nomination- Lee Daniels' The Butler and Saving Mr. Banks. From there, films 11 through 19 have minor shots, while the bottom two's chances are all but dead.

Moving into the acting categories, not much has changed though it seems that Hanks now has a better shot at breaking into the Best Actor category as he does Best Supporting Actor. His work in Captain Phillips has been raved about, and it's hard to imagine him not getting in at the moment. Still, Best Actor is a competitive category. While my top two, Chiewetel Ejiofor and Matthew McConaughey, seem like locks at the moment, the rest of the bracket is tough to place. Idris Elba, Michael B. Jordan and Forest Whitacker all have a decent shot, and if the Academy falls for Her, Nebraska or Inside Llewyn Davis, who knows what could happen. Still, I feel that Robert Redford and Christian Bale are solid picks for my Top 5 at the moment, though they may not stay that way for long.

In Best Actress, I feel that Cate Blanchett and Judi Dench are all but locks and would be willing to bet that they will be the two contenders fighting for the win. Both are highly respected actors, and both have baity roles. It'll be an intense battle no doubt. After that, I'm not quite sure what to do with Sandra Bullock. Part of me can't see how she could miss out, while another part feels that special effects will outshine her solid performance. But, Bullock has an "America's sweetheart" persona, which could go a long way with campaigning, so I can imagine a scenario where she gets in... for now. But that largely depends on how critics react to Amy Adams and Emma Thompson's performances. Both their films have gone unseen and both actresses are highly respected in the field. If the films (and, of course, their performances) are well receive, these two could certainly get a nomination, though I'm giving Adams the slight edge at the moment. Rounding out my Top 5 is Meryl Streep, who's work in August: Osage County begs the question: can a legend like Streep get nominated for a film that isn't receiving necessarily strong reviews? I'm saying yes, but only right now.

Best Supporting Actor seems to belong to Jared Leto, who's performance in Dallas Buyers Club seems to be the heart of a film I could see the Academy falling in love with. His main competition- Michael Fassbender in 12 Years a Slave- certainly stands a chance, though the Academy would no doubt lean towards a heartwarming performance as opposed to a terrifying one. Still, it seems like both men will be nominated. But from there, it's a guessing game. Rush's weak box office makes me think the film won't maintain any momentum as the year goes on, questioning whether or not Brühl will still manage to squeeze in. There's also the question of whether or not Tom Hanks can score double nominations this year with Captain Phillips in lead and Saving Mr. Banks in supporting. Meanwhile, Bradley Cooper rounds out my Top 5, though the fact that American Hustle hasn't screened yet makes me hesitant to place it so high. I contemplated placing James Gandolfini in for Enough Said, and then Barkhar Abdi for Captain Phillips, but David O. Russell's track record for nominated performances convinced me to but Cooper above the rest. Still, this race is far from over and this category will undoubtedly change, especially when ensemble films like Out of the Furnace and Monuments Men premiere.

Best Supporting Actress has largely remained the same, with Oprah Winfrey and Lupita Nyong'o still duking it out at the top two spots. Meanwhile, the most recent American Hustle trailer convinced me to take Jennifer Lawrence's performance more seriously. But, after that, it's a pretty difficult category to nail down. Naomie Harris and Julia Roberts seem like safe picks (especially with the Weinsteins behind them), but June Squibb and Carey Mulligan could easily sneak in later on.

But the toughest category to predict is Best Director, simply because The Wolf of Wall Street's absence leaves a gaping hole in my predictions. Alfonso Caurón and Steve McQueen both seem like locks at the moment, and David O. Russell also has a huge chance at getting in if American Hustle succeeds. Assuming the film maintains momentum throughout the rest of the year, Paul Greengrass could get in for Captain Phillips. But Scorsese, who once seemed like a lock, means that a fifth position is virtually wide open, with many major directors competing for the spot. I'm giving the slight edge to Ron Howard at the moment, though it could have easily gone to the Coen Brothers, George Clooney, Stephen Frears, or a wildcard nomination like Jean-Marc Vallée or John Lee Hancock. Only time will tell.

Tomorrow, I'll start crafting brackets for the screenplay categories. Thanks for reading! And here are my brackets:

Post TIFF Oscar Update

As some of you may have noticed, I've already missed a deadline on my schedule. Well, that was (somewhat) intentional. I underestimated how drastically my rankings would be altered by the end of the fest, so I chose to wait until the end of TIFF to finalize this year's first batch of predictions. So, without further adieu-

The biggest change in the brackets is how strong of a contender 12 Years a Slave will be. I always thought the film would be one of the biggest movies of the fall, but it could be the one to beat. With unanimous raves from critics and the People's Choice Award under its belt, it's clear that 12 Years a Slave will earn nominations in many different categories and is currently the front runner for Best Picture, as well as Best Actor and Best Director. I've also moved up Lupita Nyong'o in the Supporting Actress bracket, though I'm not quite sure if she has the power to dethrone Oprah Winfrey from the top just yet. Michael Fassbender's apparently frightening performance also remains in the running for Best Supporting Actor, though the fact that his character is so unlikable prevents me from naming him the frontrunner.

Two other films that made quite the impression at TIFF are Dallas Buyers Club and Rush, both of which have risen in a number of brackets. For one thing, I feel confident that Matthew McConaughey and Daniel Brühl will earn nominations for their work in the film, and that Best Picture nominations are somewhat likely, particularly for Rush. But, when it comes to Dallas Buyers Club, I think it's Jared Leto who stands the best chance at a nomination, as virtually every review names him as the highlight (and heart) of the movie. As for Rush, it stands a decent chance at the Best Director category, though I do feel the film's box office results will help determine just how much of a contender it is.

When it comes to disappointing changes, I've lowered  my expectations for Labor Day and August: Osage County considerably. Labor Day received relatively mixed to negative reviews, so I think it's Best Picture chances are borderline at best (I'm waiting to see the critical response to Captain Phillips before removing it from the Top 10) and both Josh Brolin and Kate Winslet have fallen out of the Top 5. The film's best chance will, most likely, be Adapted Screenplay. As for August, I still have Meryl Streep in the Top 5 (because she's freakin' Meryl Streep) and Julia Roberts at the tail end of the Top 5 (because Best Supporting Actress is weak this year) but it's chances at a Best Picture nomination are not looking too good.

Some other quick but notable changes:  The Fifth Estate has been moved to the bottom of all the brackets and I'll likely remove the film altogether once it's released. I've also moved Judi Dench up to the second slot on the Best Actress category. Philomena is, apparently, quite a crowd pleaser and it's chances in Best Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay and possibly Best Picture have increased substantially. Felicity Jones has been added to the Best Supporting Actress bracket for her positively received work in The Invisible Woman, though the film could easily fall under the radar a la Fiennes' Coriolanus. Naomie Harris also climbed the ranks after receiving raves for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, though her onscreen husband, Elba, will have to deal with a tougher crowd of actors to break into the Top 5. And, of course, we're still waiting for reviews from a number of these films, but I'm placing films/performances in the bracket based on how I think they'll be received upon their release.

Below are my brackets in the Big Six categories. I'll update these brackets on October 14, after the New York Film Festival ends.

Movie Review: "Now You See Me"

Let me start this review by saying that I'm well aware that Now You See Me is about a group of magicians and that while many movies are grounded in a sense of reality, not all have to be. Just look at films like Iron Man- movies that use science faction and fantasy to tell their story by placing characters into interesting but unrealistic environments for the sake of entertainment. That's fine. What Now You See Me does, however, is not fine. Because even movies like Iron Man are grounded in some sense of reality. Yes, Ton Stark can use a robotic suit filled with weapons to fight off evildoers but it's not like he calls upon a dragon to rescue him when all hope seems lost. Movies can create whatever world they want, but they need to follow those rules if they want there story to have any credibility. Apparently, the writers of Now You See Me missed that lesson in screenwriting class.

About halfway through Now You See Me I decided to give up trying to guess what would happen. Not because the film was so intelligently structured that I had a hard time figuring out the twist, but because there was no point in trying to guess it anyway. No matter what I thought was going to happen, I could almost guarantee that the story was going to turn out some other way. That's because writers Ed Solomon, Boaz Yakin and Edward Ricourt don't seem to care that the film's many outlandish twists make absolutely no sense. In there world, every character seems to have impeccable knowledge of human behavior and virtually everybody is one step ahead of everybody else. A character will be intelligent when their knowledge is necessary to further the plot, and the same character will make a stupid mistake just a few minutes later. So, the "twists" in Now You See Me may be surprising, but only because they don't make sense in the fabric of the story. It's as if these three men sat down to write a screenplay and decided to abandon logic- instead, they'd just write what they thought sounded good.

And then there is the logic of these magicians and their abilities. The opening scene shows the way these magicians do their tricks and, a few moments later, Morgan Freeman discusses how he has the ability to debunk all of their illusions. Well, I sure as hell wish he did because the magic on display is bafflingly stupid. Again, I'm well aware this is a movie and not a documentary about the world of modern magic. But, to return to the Iron Man metaphor, it's not like he can shoot laser beams from his hands and fly just because. The film takes the time to explain how he built his weapons that allow him to do that. So, why can Isla Fischer magically transport herself across the room? How can Woody Harrelson's "mentalism" help him to know the intimate details of just about everybody he comes into contact with? The questions go on from there. Again, I'm not asking this film to be the height of realism, but I am asking for the film to at least make sense. When characters can do whatever the hell the writers want them to do, it makes the film considerably less enjoyable.

But the biggest crime of perpetuated by these screenwriters is  that they have wasted the talents of an all star cast. Now You See Me has one of the most impressive ensembles of the year, and not a single actor in the cast has a moment to shine. In fact, some of the actors are downright unimpressive. Jesse Eisenberg, in particular, came off as unbearable. Now, Eisenberg's performance as Mark Zuckerberg remains brilliant (and my favorite male performance of 2010). In Now You See Me,  Eisenberg repeats his Zuckerberg shtick but to the most annoying degree possible. His character is one of the most unlikable this year, and Eisenberg's performance lacks any sense of charisma. Perhaps the only actor with less screen presence in the film is Dave Franco. Then you have Mark Ruffalo, who essentially grumbles his way through the whole movie, while Michael Caine and Morgan Freeman turn in bland performances that we've seen them do many times before. The only actors that came out OK were Woody Harrelson, Isla Fischer, and Melanie Laurent and they are all serviceable at best.

Now You See Me was a surprise hit at the box office this summer, grossing more than the big star vehicles of two of Hollywood's most prolific leading men- Will Smith's After Earth and Johnny Depp's The Lone Ranger. And I suppose I understand why. Now You See Me is the sort of film that's easy for audiences to digest. It's perfect summer viewing- a mildly entertaining way to pass two hours in an air conditioned theater. But Now You See Me is not a good film. Sure, a few scenes were mildly interesting and the cast made a couple of the one liners work, but the film is so moronic and annoying that I couldn't truly have fun watching. I like being surprised by movie twists, but not when those surprises force the screenplay to sacrifice logic. And logic is something Now You See Me is lacking in.