Early October Oscar Bracket Update

With September over, there hasn't been too much change to my Oscar brackets but enough to warrant another post. This month sees the release of quite a few Oscar movies, so it will be interesting to see what we'll be talking about by the end of the month, in terms of nomination predictions. Anyway, here are my current Oscar predictions:

REMEMBER- this is a ranking as to how likely a film is to be nominated in the category, with one meaning the most likely. Once we get later into Oscar season (mid November- early December) I will begin posting definitive Oscar nomination predictions. I've also stopped my rankings at 15 for all categories.
Also, an update: I will be putting an asterisk (*) next to the films/actors/writers/directors I'd consider locks. 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo *
2. Silver Linings Playbook *
3. Les Miserables *
4. Lincoln *
5. The Master *
6. Life of Pi *
7. Django Unchained
8. Hitchcock
9. The Impossible
10. Beats of the Southern Wild
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Amour
13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
14. Moonrise Kingdom
15. Anna Karenina

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: The first major change to the brackets is the removal of Trouble With the Curve, which received largely negative reviews and didn't exactly set the box office on fire. I can't imagine it receiving any nominations, which is a shame considering it might be the last time we see Clint Eastwood on screen. My second major change is the addition of Hitchcock at number 8... I had no idea the film was even ready for release, and considering they are dropping it right in the middle of Oscar season could mean good things. But, I'm still waiting for a trailer to be sure. I've also moved Beasts of the Southern Wild down a few slots due to it's ineligibility at the SAG awards, which could hurt it, but I still feel it has the best shot out of all the "wild card" predictions.  In terms of locks, I'd consider my top six locks in the category, unless the ones which have not premiered yet (Les Miserables, Lincoln and Life of Pi disappoint). 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: 

1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master *
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln *
3. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock 
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Denzel Washington, Flight
8. Matt Damon, Promised Land
9. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
10. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
11. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: There are two nominees I'd consider almost guarantees at a nomination- Phoenix, who I think will win, and Day Lewis, who will most definitely be nominated. After that, we have a couple of great actors fighting for the remaining three slots. Notably, I've removed Eastwood from the list for the same reason I took Trouble With the Curve off my Best Picture bracket, while I also moved Pitt down a few slots due to some murmurs I heard that he will be campaigned in the Supporting category. Until I hear anything official, I won't remove him from my list. I also added two new actors, most notably Anthony Hopkins for Hithcock, a role that has Oscar bait written all over it. If it's as good as it could be, he's a shoo-in for a nomination. I also added Matt Damon for the drama Promised Land, which looks mediocre to me but could surprise and be an Oscar contender.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook *
2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina 
3. Hellen Mirren, Hitchcock
4. Maggie Smith, Quartet
5. Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
9. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Best Actress is, by far, the most difficult category to predict for me. There is only one guaranteed lock at this point, which is Lawrence, and everything below her is basically a guessing game. I was ready to have Wallis ruled as a lock as well, but I can't help but be worried by her ineligibility at the Screen Actors Guild award from affecting her chances. I also removed Viola Davis for Won't Back Down and Amy Adams for Trouble With the Curve, while also lowering Marion Cotillard a few notches due to that film not being chosen as the Foreign Language submission for France this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: 

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained *
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master *
3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
6. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
7. David Strathaim, Lincoln
8. Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
9. Bryan Cranston, Argo
10. William H. Macy, The Sessions
11. Joseph Gordon Levitt, Lincoln
12. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
13. Tom Holland, The Impossible
14. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
15. Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: With my top three seeming like locks at this point, and the top 5 staying the same, Supporting Actor remains the easiest category to predict- for now.  However there are a number of other actors who could sneak in. With the trailer for Lincoln dropping, it appears clear that Joseph Gordon Levitt, David Strathaim and especially Tommy Lee Jones could sneak in their. It also seems like Hal Holbrook stands Promised Land's best chance for a nomination, while increased buzz for Argo lead me to pushing Cranston up a few spots. But still, I feel pretty confident in my top five at the moment. I also moved Dwight Henry down due to the Beasts/SAG controversy. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables *
2. Amy Adams, The Master *
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
10. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
12. Frances McDormand, Promised Land
13. Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
14. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Finally, a category without many major changes.There are, however, two major additions- Scarlett Johansson and Frances McDormand! I also moved Sally Field up a slot after seeing the Lincoln trailer, but still feel like the locks in the category- Adams and especially Hathaway- stand a good chance at winning. 

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo *
2. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables *
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
8. Benh Zaitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild 

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Nothing really worth talking about- the only reason I bumped Hopper up a slot was because of that incredible behind the scenes look at Les Miserables that makes me thought (briefly) that it could take home the award for Best Picture. I'll wait for the premiere before calling that, but for now we'll see. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master *
2. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained *
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdon
5. Matt Damon and John Krasinski, Promised Land
6. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths
7. Rian Johnson, Looper
8. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
9. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Basically, I don't know what I was thinking putting Amour so low on the list last time. And I added Promised Land. But other than the locks, I feel like this is anyone's game.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Chris Terrio, Argo *
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
3. William Nicholson, Les Miserables
4. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln
5. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
6. Lucy Alibar and Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. David Magee, Life of Pi
8. John J. McLaughlin, Hitchcock
9. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
10. Ronald Harwood, Quartet

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved The Sessions up a slot due to the same exact SAG controversy I've been talking about since Best Picture. I also added Hitchcock the list due to that film's sudden addition the schedule.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Frankenweenie
3. ParaNorman
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. From Up on Poppy Hill
6. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
7. Brave

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved Rise of the Guardians up a few slots due to how many other Oscar prediction sites have it on their list. Still, this is a tough category to predict since we've only seen three of these films. I can't even truly say what I'd consider a lock at this point.

FOR THE NEXT UPDATE: My next update will be at the end of the month, after a number of Oscar films hit theaters and the New York Film Festival takes place. Stay tuned and leave comments or your own predictions! 

Pilot Talk: Fox's "The Mindy Project"

"The Mindy Project" may not have been the funniest pilot I've ever seen, nor does it necessarily set up a plot line that I think will lead to something original or worthwhile. Within minutes anybody with even the slightest knowledge of classic TV cliches can tell where this series is going to go. Yet, I was completely absorbed into the story. Why? Mindy Kaling, who's extremely intelligent script embraced the classic romantic comedy formula and added a whole lot of personality.

By using Mindy's obsession with romantic comedies as a starting off point for the series, I was immediately absorbed into the series. Granted, meta humor can only be taken so far. Eventually, the sort of self aware humor can become condescending, annoying or just "too meta." And, unfortunately, that could happen to "The Mindy Project."But, as far as the pilot is concerned, this is an impressive and considerably enjoyable genre deconstruction that isn't afraid to embrace the very formula it mocks.

Right from the opening scene, it becomes clear: narrator Mindy is obsessed with romantic comedies and finding her Mr. Right, even though virtually every guy she meets seems completely wrong for her. And, of course, there are the men in her office including the "guy she has no chance in hell with getting together with...just kidding" and a womanizing British hunk that is either "Hugh Grant in About a Boy" or "Huge Grant in real life." Obviously, a love triangle will begin to form eventually but for now I'm fine with the three trading witty one liners and allowing the chemistry to speak for itself.

There is also something to be said about the cast of this series. It might be a bit too early to tell for sure, but the cast seems to have fantastic chemistry and play well off each other. Kaling is a movie star in the making. She may be an unconventional leading lady, but she radiates charisma and is incredibly likable, even if her actions are not always the wisest. She also has a great sense of humor and wonderful comedic timing. The pilot also features some wonderful supporting players- Chris Messina and Ed Weeks are perfect foils to each other and their scenes with Kaling are, by far, the highlights of the pilot, while the pilot also showcases the fantastic Anna Camp who really impressed me with her work in "The Good Wife" and "True Blood" and has (hopefully) found a show worth sticking with.

"The Mindy Project" is my favorite pilot to premiere so far this fall, and is considerably more enjoyable than the other comedy pilots I've seen this year. It's certainly worth checking out and will make a great companion series with "New Girl" this year.

The Master: A Feast of Food for Thought

Writing a review for The Master is one of the most difficult tasks I've ever faced. The truth is, while I know what I saw was great, I'm not quite sure what my opinion of it is. I'm not sure how much I truly "love" the film, and I'm not even sure if I do love it and ever will. I'm not sure if I'll ever even feel the urge to watch it again, and not because I was bored or disappointed. The truth is, I was exhilarated by The Master and astonished by what Paul Thomas Anderson accomplishes with this film. But, the movie has so many complex themes and I'm still processing all that PTA is saying through it. All I know is, The Master was disturbing, difficult to interpret, beautifully filmed and directed and, by far, the most complex film of the year. But with so much to think about, it's difficult to really have a sound opinion on the movie.

What you take away from The Master really depends on what you bring to it. I think your religious beliefs will certainly have an impact on what you think of the film, and the movie will probably play the best with those who don't believe in anything or have very complicated feelings about religion, such as myself. Those who are completely convinced that there own religion is entirely true may not be able to relate to the film, and those that are ignorant to any real spirituality will probably feel nothing while watching. Regardless of what the press may want you to think, the truth is this film is not about Scientology, even if the cult in the film seems heavily inspired by it. This is a film about religion in general. It is about why we believe what we believe, the lengths we will go to believe in it, and how our beliefs will impact our thoughts and actions. It interprets the behavior of the believer (Joaquin Phoenix's Freddie Quell) and the preacher (Phillip Seymour Hoffman's Lancaster Dodd). The film is an examination of faith, and not a lighthearted one for that matter.

Watching this film was a powerful experience for multiple reasons. For one thing, I was astounded by PTA's directing abilities, as I always am. Paul Thomas Anderson's style is incredibly unique and never fails to completely captivate me. As all his films have been, The Master is beautifully filmed and features absolutely gorgeous cinematography. The power of his direction can be felt regardless of what is happening on screen, and there is no denying that PTA is one of the best directors working today. If you haven't seen any of his films before, I wholly recommend you seek them out. There isn't a bad film in the bunch. But the movie was powerful for a different reason, and a reason I did not expect- I was deeply disturbed by the film. As captivated as I was by the film, I couldn't help but feel uneasy, uncomfortable and eventually just disturbed by the happenings on screen. There is something very bizarre and deeply troubling about the characters, their actions, and what their actions mean for us. What is PTA saying about society though this film? Is it true? What are his thoughts on religion, and are all religions this damaging to their members? I've been thinking about this film since I saw it Friday night, and am still not quite sure about what he thinks.

That's the best part of the film- that I still don't know. There are so few films in general that are as thought provoking as this film is, and even fewer released in the past ten years. This is a film made for analyzation and intelligent discussion. So while I didn't "enjoy" watching The Master in the way I enjoyed PTA's other films or some other movies released this year, I've certainly enjoyed discussing the film with my family and friends that have seen the film. To not discuss The Master is like only watching half a film and then forming an opinion on it. It's a movie that demands to be remembered.

On the more basic sense, The Master is still a monumental achievement. I simply can't imagine a world where Joaquin Phoenix does not win Best Actor in a Leading Role. His performance is a true transformation and absolutely phenomenal. Everything from his posture to his facial expressions and, more obviously, his physicalization and line delivery seem thought out and truly leave an impact on the audience. Phoenix is one of the most recognizable faces in the business simply due to how diverse of an actor he is, but here he completely disappears into the role. "In character" is an understatement. Not to be upstaged, Phillip Seymour Hoffman is also fantastic, while Amy Adams delivers, what I believe to be the best performance in her already stellar career. The film, as I mentioned above, also features the best cinematography of the year and a chilling score.

Don't just watch The Master and expect to have an opinion on it the moment the lights come up. It's a movie that must be processed and thought about for quite some time. Once the film is available on Bluray I plan on picking up a copy and pausing after each scene to really think about what Paul Thomas Anderson is trying to say and what it means to me. But, there is no denying that The Master is a powerful viewing experience and a film that will stick with me for quite some time.

OVERALL GRADE: A

Pilot Talk: The New Normal

I may be three episodes late, but I have finally found the time to sit down and talk about Ryan Murphy's new NBC comedy, The New Normal.

I should start out by saying this: I have watched quite a bit of Murphy's work through the years. I thoroughly enjoyed the first season of American Horror Story and am quite excited for the second season. I loved the first three seasons of Nip/Tuck, and can still find some guilty pleasure enjoyment from the later episodes. And I stand by my opinion that the first season of Glee is fantastic... before it became, frankly, complete shit. The simple truth is: I think Ryan Murphy comes up with great ideas and  I really enjoy how much shocking content he puts out there, but eventually it gets tiresome.

So far, I've enjoyed what I've seen of The New Normal. The first three episodes of the series were quite funny, a bit mean spirited but with a heaping dose of sweetness to help even it out. The characters are all lovable and the show is fast paced, without feeling rushed. These are qualities that many of Murphy's other products either do share or shared at one point, so we're off to a good start.

Murphy also has a real eye for talent in the casting department. Each actor in this series feels perfectly cast and, as a whole, have chemistry to spare. Justin Bartha and Andrew Rannells are wonderful and completely believable as a couple, playing off each other nicely in both their comedic scenes and more serious ones. In supporting roles, NeNe Leakes and Ellen Barkin are hilarious, even if their characters are far too one dimensional (more on that later). As somebody who's easily annoyed by child actors, I'm impressed with how talented young Bebe Wood is. She's much more than just a cute little kid but shows many different sides to her character, and is also a natural talent. But the real scene stealer is the wonderful Georgia King, who wins the audience completely within her first few minutes on camera. I only hope she continues to pick great projects after The New Normal ends, she could be a real star.

Also, for the most part, the writing has been strong. The plot lines are interesting and realistic, while the dialogue is snappy, witty and every so often, surprisingly edgy. I also appreciate the way Murphy & co. depict David and Bryan as a couple. As much as I love Modern Family, the lack of affection between Cam and Mitchell in most of the episodes is quite noticeable. I'm not trying to compare the two series, and I do believe that Modern Family is a much more well done show, but The New Normal definitely gets points for depicting a gay couple in a realistic way, and with just as much affection as a straight couple would share on camera. That being said, there are a couple of things I want to address regarding the, shall we say, not so good aspects of the writing.

Watch any of his series and you will know that Ryan Murphy is not the type of write to be subtle. In fact, I'm pretty sure the word is not in his vocabulary. And that's not a bad thing! But on The New Normal, the lack of subtly is annoying and obnoxious. I'm a passionate advocate for gay rights and love the way the series depicts the obstacles a gay couple might face in today's world, but the series (in particular the last episode to air, "Baby Clothes") shoves the messages down a viewers throat. The message itself is wonderful and deserves to be shared with audiences nationwide, but not when it's being put up on screen like propaganda. The way the series repeats the message over and over and over again, coupled with the fact that anybody with the fact that every homophobic character is seen as a complete bigot with not a single redemptive quality is just sloppy writing. That leads me to the characters of Rocky (Leakes) and Jane (Barkin). Rocky is very much the "sassy black girl" character that most comedy series seem to have nowadays, but her character is almost entirely paper thin. In fact, Leakes serves virtually no purpose but to show up every few minutes and say something sassy, which is only funny because of the words she uses and her overall attitude. Even more troubling is how Jane is characterized. Obviously, Jane is supposed to represent the bigots in society, and Murphy has even likened her to the woman from One Million Moms. And, for the most part, her bigotry leads to some of the biggest laughs so far. A particular quip about sending a "congratulations card to Satan" had me chucking for days. But sometimes her behavior feels like a cartoon. A rant about slavery she has in the second episode isn't funny, it's just plain ridiculous. And when she drags two young children to Planned Parenthood, it feels too over the top. I see what Murphy is trying to do with the character, but he has to tone it down before it just gets too ridiculous.

With any luck, The New Normal could be a solid comedy on the very crowded Tuesday lineup. The cast is strong and, if certain problems are fixed up, the series could become even better. I just hope Murphy doesn't fall back into the trap which Glee stumbled upon two years ago. That series displays some of the worst writing on any series I've seen. The New Normal deserves better.

Also, a quick side note: Despite what critics and commercials may try and make you think, this series has virtually nothing in common with Modern Family other than the fact that they both depict a gay couple and involve families. The series are both tonally different, have very different comedy stylings, and are trying to say very different things to their viewers. While I did compare the depiction of gay relationships on both programs, I do not mean to make viewers believe that the series are worth comparing in any way.

Pilot Talk: NBC's REVOLUTION

PILOT TALK is a new column I'll be writing about the many new pilots I'll be checking out throughout the fall TV season. I'll also be writing SEASON PREMIERE TALK for returning series I watch. 

I had low expectations for Revolution, which is the first new series I'll be reviewing for this segment (though I also have been watching The New Normal, which I might be writing something about.) To me, Revolution seemed like a cheesy concoction of the past few years in pop culture, like a blend of The Walking Dead andThe Hunger Games. And the first few minutes of the pilot certainly didn't help. But, by the end of the pilot, I was convinced that Revolution could, if handled intelligently, end up an exciting action series with a captivating plot line.

What impresses me the most about Revolution is how much I enjoyed the action in this episode. From an intense shootout to a wonderfully staged and very exciting sword-fight that closes the episode, the action was effective and exciting. Maybe I'm just starved for great action after so many disappointing films this summer, but the action sequences in Revolution felt like something out of a summer movie.

The plot also feels like something out of a summer blockbuster. Nothing too serious, nothing too thought provoking, but filled with possibilities. We may be in a second 'Golden Age of Television" with intense, extremely dramatic dramas like Breaking Bad and Mad Men, to name a few of the fantastic series available to anybody with a television and a basic cable package. And I love shows like that, don't get me wrong. And, as far as I can see, Revolution won't ever touch that level of quality. But let's not completely disregard the age olden action drama, filled with familiar archetype, the age old 'good vs. evil' theme and fantastic cliffhangers that wet our appetite for the next week. That's what I look forward to in Revolution, assuming that the quality doesn't dip in coming weeks. The final moments of this episode, as all good pilots do, raises questions and allows for much speculation about what will happen in the coming weeks. That being said, do not watch the full promo for the series if you are at all interested in watching this pilot. It completely spoils many of the big reveals from this episode, which makes absolutely no sense to me.

As to what needs to be changed, some of the acting simply must improve. Series lead Tracy Spiridakos is quite wooden in this episode, and amongst the many interesting characters in the series, is incredibly boring in comparison. Her fellow young actor, Graham Rogers, is just as one note and fails to make an impression in this episode. Much of the series will, apparently, rest on their shoulders. An improvement in charisma is a must. The characters themselves also feel quite underdeveloped. Don't get me wrong, I didn't expect to see all the different shades of each and every character in such a plot heavy pilot, but the characters are certainly cliches and need to be further expanded to maintain my interest. Also, as with all sci-fi/fantasy series on TV, this show must maintain consistently strong story telling. Remember Heroes? Flash Forward? It's very easy for a series like this to become unwatchable.

One last thing: I want to give special notice to series regulars Billy Burke and Giancarlo Esposito, who completely steal the show. Billy Burke, frankly, exudes 'badassery' and has all the makings to be a wonderful action hero. Esposito, meanwhile, is incredibly threatening and a wonderful villain that, as all good villains are, is more appealing than the heroes.

So, I'll be sticking with Revolution for the next few weeks with the hope that the series delivers on what it promises in the pilot. I see a lot of potential in this series, and I could definitely see myself becoming addicted to it... if it lives up to all of it's potential.