Complete Oscar Predictions!

With the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild nominations announced, we're starting to get a clearer image of how the Oscar nominations will look next month. That being said, we've still got a long way to go and some shocking changes to a few brackets. Here is my complete list of Oscar predictions, with every category but the "unpredictable" ones (namely, short films, which is quite hard to predict). I'll be updating my Oscar predictions one last time on January 9, 2013, the day before the Academy announces their nominations. That will be a busy time for this blog as well as I'll have much more time to write since I'll be on winter break, will be seeing many more Oscar films and will (hopefully) have my Top 10 list completed by that time.

BEST PICTURE:

• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: At this point, I feel safe in saying all eight of these films will make it into the Best Picture lineup. The only one I feel hesitant about is Beasts of the Southern Wild due to it's shocking snubs at the Golden Globes and SAGS, but I still feel like it will have enough buzz to break in. What I'm mostly worried about is what two films, namely Moonrise Kingdom and The Impossible, could possibly break into the lineup. But, I don't see getting the nom...yet. 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

• Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
• John Hawkes, The Sessions
• Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
• Denzel Washington, Flight

ANALYSIS: I truly believe that the SAG nominees will match the Academy's picks for best actor. Day-Lewis, Hawkes and Washington have been locks for a while, while Cooper and Jackman have been building buzz steadily and now have more attention than Phoenix or Hopkins, their main competition for the nomination. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

• Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
• Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
• Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
• Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Naomi Watts, The Impossible

ANALYSIS: Chastain and Lawrence have been locks for a while and will be duking it out for the win, but the rest of the category is a bit up in the air still. I was surprised to see Cotillard nominated at both the SAGs and the Golden Globes, especially since Emmanuelle Riva (who I always assumed had more buzz) was snubbed. Thus, I've moved Cotillard up but still don't feel like it's a 100% chance. I'm also worried about leaving Wallis but, in my opinion, there just aren't enough buzzed about actresses this year to keep her off. As for Watts, I debated between leaving her, Mirren or Weisz but I just feel like Watts will get the most attention throughout the next few weeks. It could change though.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

• Alan Arkin, Argo
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

ANALYSIS: I'd say Arkin, Jones and De Niro (despite his GG snub) are all locked in this category. That leaves one last slot, which is becoming increasingly hard to fill. What also worries me is Hoffman- he may have picked up a SAG nomination as well as a Golden Globe nom, but will the Academy pay attention. Especially with large supporting casts from Django Unchained and Les Miserables. My gut is telling me yes, but I could still foresee a snub. But, if any actor gets a nomination from The Master, it's Hoffman. As for the remaining slot, I'm giving it to DiCaprio. His status as an overdue actor and the fact that he's cast so against type will work in his favor. That being said, Crowe or Redmayne (from Les Miserables) or Christoph Waltz (from Django Unchained) could take his slot. We'll see.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

• Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
• Sally Field, Lincoln
• Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
• Helen Hunt, The Sessions
• Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

ANALYSIS: Let's face it: Hathaway, Field and Hunt aren't going anywhere. But, that leaves two wide open slots. No offense to Nicole Kidman, but there is no way in hell I can see her getting an Oscar nomination for a film that barely anybody liked, even if she was apparently quite good in it. Maggie Smith has a very good shot at getting in, I'd say, thanks to her SAG boost which leaves a final slot with three actresses competing to get in. The way I see it, it's Kidman vs. Amy Adams for The Master vs. Samantha Barks for Les Miserables. As of right now, I'm giving it to Barks. As I mentioned above, I don't see Kidman having much of a shot, and I don't think the Academy will be all that crazy for The Master which will hurt Adams chances. Barks, however, has a meaty role in her film, which has yet to be released and will build more buzz as time goes on. A nomination seems likely. 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:

• Ben Affleck, Argo
• Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
• Tom Hopper, Les Miserables
• Ang Lee, Life of Pi
• Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

ANALYSIS: Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg are all getting in, no doubt about it. And, I'd say that Hopper is pretty close to a guarantee as well. The one thing that worries me is his snub at the Golden Globes. But, I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt. I hope I'm not wrong. As for the fifth slot, I debated giving it to Tarantino but I still feel like Lee has a real shot due to how visually stunning his film is, and how much that's sure to impress the Academy. That being said, I might change my mind once we get closer to Oscar time. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

• Ben Lewin, The Sessions
• William Nicholson, Les Miserables
• David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
• Chris Terrio, Argo
• Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln

ANALYSIS: I feel a bit uneasy about leaving Les Miserables in here, but it's also hard to find a film to take its spot so I suppose it's a safe decision- for now. That being said, I feel Lincoln, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook are all locks, and am feeling quite confident about The Sessions as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

• Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
• Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
• Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
• John Gatins, Flight
• Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

ANALYSIS: Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty are both locked, I think, and the rest of the category is a bit of a guessing game, but one where you could make some pretty solid conclusions. I really think Moonrise Kingdom has a chance to slip in here, as well as The Master and Flight but I'd love to be wrong and see the Academy nominate more surprising films, like Looper or Magic Mike. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 

• Roger Deakins, Skyfall
• Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
• Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
• Mihai Malaimare Jr., The Master
• Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi

ANALYSIS: Life of Pi, Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty feel like locks to me, and I'd be willing to bet that Lincoln is close to a lock as well. I debated between putting The Master or Les Miserables or Anna Karenina, and decided to just go with my gut instinct and pick The Master. Come January, however, I could definitely change my mind.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

• Rick Carter, Jim Erickson and Peter T. Frank, Lincoln
• Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Anna Karenina
• Adam Stockhausen and Kris Moran, Moonrise Kingdom
• Eve Stewart, Les Miserables
• David Crank, Jack Fisk and Amy Wells, The Master

ANALYSIS: This category feels very safe to me, I really can't imagine what else could get in here. But, that being said, I'm far from a professional with predicting and my gut instinct could be very wrong. Only time will tell.

BEST FILM EDITING:

• Chris Dickens, Les Miserables
• William Goldenberg, Argo
• Michael Kahn, Lincoln
• Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
• Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: Editing is a key Oscar for Best Picture hopefuls, thus it makes sense to put a lot of the Best Picture hopefuls in this category. When it comes to locks, I'm not totally sure, other than Argo and maybe Zero Dark Thirty, but the only two that I could see sneaking in are Django Unchained and The Impossible. So, we'll see.

BEST SOUND EDITING: 

• The Dark Knight Rises
• Django Unchained
• Flight
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: Truly, I know next to nothing about this category and what makes it different from Best Sound Mixing. So, these were all relative guesses based on little bursts of research I did concerning similar films in this category. We'll see if I'm right.

BEST SOUND MIXING: 

• The Dark Knight Rises
• Flight
• Les Miserables
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: See above.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

• Sharen Davis, Django Unchained
• Paco Delgado, Les Miserables
• Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
• Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
• Anna Maskrey and Richard Taylor, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

ANALYSIS: Seeing as these are the main films incorporating costumes this year, these feel like safe picks. Granted, I might be wrong, but only time will tell.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR STYLING:

• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln

ANALYSIS: Again, these feel like the safest picks. Maybe Cloud Atlas will sneak in their? I guess that's somewhat likely. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

• The Avengers
• Cloud Atlas
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Life of Pi
• Prometheus

ANALYSIS: The only one I'm not sure about here is Cloud Atlas, which is a shame as it definitely deserves the nomination. Maybe Snow White and the Huntsman will take it's place? I don't know, but I really hope that the Academy acknowledges Cloud Atlas with a nomination in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

• Myhcael Danna, Life of Pi
• Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek andTom Tykwer, Cloud Atlas
• Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
• John Williams, Lincoln
• Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

ANALYSIS: Truthfully, few scores have stuck out this year. One of the two that did, the score for Beasts of the Southern Wild, is so terrific and completely worthy of the nomination. The other, Cloud Atlas, seems like a risky pick but given it's nomination at the Golden Globes I don't feel too risky. As for the other three, they seem like pretty solid predictions, especially Lincoln, but this is a tough category to predict for me. We'll see what happens, I guess. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

• "100 Black Coffins" by Rick Ross from Django Unchained
• "Learn Me Right" by Birdy and Mumford & Sons from Brave
• "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall
• "Still Alive" by Paul Williams from Paul Williams Still Alive
• "Suddenly" by Hugh Jackman from Les Miserables

ANALYSIS: These categories are usually almost impossible to predict but this year we have a couple of high profile songs from many huge pop artists. With "Skyfall" eligible, I can't imagine it not being nominated. And we all knew that "Suddenly" would be nominated the second it was announced as being written for the film. Then we have "100 Black Coffins", which seems like a risky choice but it seems like the Academy has been fine with nominating rap songs as of late (see Hustle & Flow and 8 Mile). As for the other two nominations, "Learn Me Right" feels like a solid choice given the fact that it's by the (amazing) Mumford & Sons. I mean, they get tons of Grammy love, why not some Oscar love too? And I've, truthfully, never head of Paul Williams Still Alive but every major prediction site has it on it's lineup, so I felt I should too. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Rabbi's Cat
• Wreck-it-Ralph

ANALYSIS: The only film from this bracket I could see being snubbed is ParaNorman, but I don't see what would take it's place. Maybe Hotel Transylvania or Rise of the Guardians? I don't know right now, so I'm keeping it in. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

• The House I Live In
• How to Survive a Plague 
• The Impostor
• The Invisible War
• Searching for Sugar Man

ANALYSIS: I've heard of Searching for Sugar Man, The Imposter and How to Survive a Plague, so I included them in my predictions. As for the other two slots, they sounded serious and like something the Academy would love, so I included it. 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

• Amour (Austria)
• The Intouchables (France)
• Lore (Australia)
• No (Chile)
• A Royal Affair (Denmark)

ANALYSIS: This is a tough category to predict every year, with one or two exceptions. For example, Amour and The Intouchables are definitely in. But the rest? It's quite difficult, really. So, take this lightly. I won't get much closer to accuracy. 

That's it for me, in terms of Oscar Predictions, until early January. Oscar season is really heating up, and as we reach the finish line it's important to take these nominations much more seriously. Hopefully my current predictions won't be off from how it actually turns out! We'll see what happens. 

Silver Linings Playbook- An Excellent Blur of Drama and Comedy

It took me two viewings but I'm now more than convinced that Silver Linings Playbook is one of the very best films of the year and one that almost anybody can appreciate. When creating a "disease dramadey" a director has to walk a very thin tightrope. If it is too funny, then it can be seen as being offensive to those with the disease. If it is too dramatic, then it can be perceived as ringing false or being melodramatic. David O. Russell manages to walk this tightrope with ease, however, and the audience is better off for it. Silver Linings Playbook is a very funny, but also appropriately dramatic film that deals with mental disorders realistically and also showcases some of the best performances of the year.

Having read the book of which the film is based, I was a bit apprehensive while walking into the theater. Russell is a talented director, no doubt, but the source material is heavily cliched and could easily translate terribly to film. For the most part, the film is faithful (with the exception of a much different, and considerably better, ending) yet the cliches, which are certainly present, don't even come close to the levels of annoyance they reached in the novel. Silver Linings Playbook is an example of how great direction, a talented cast and true emotional connectivity can better a film.

Let's be honest- we all know how the film will end. I won't explicitly spoil anything, but by looking at the poster or watching the trailers I highly doubt potential audience members will be scratching their heads and debating about the film's possible outcomes. That's not a bad thing though. In fact, Russell goes out of his way to show that the "will they/won't they" relationship between Cooper and Lawrence (who have enough chemistry to light up the screen, by the way) is not the main plot of the film. This is a movie about personal struggles with the obstacles in life, and as significant as the bond between these two characters is the main focus of the story is really on Cooper and his struggles to overcome his illness and find a silver lining amongst the troubles in his life. Likewise, Lawrence's Tiffany isn't looking for a man so much as she is trying to find somebody that understands what she goes through with her mental illness.

That's not to discredit the romance, however, which I truly found myself invested in. That's entirely a testament to Cooper and Lawrence, who sell the film (and their characters) perfectly. Finding some comedy behind their illnesses but never exploiting or forgetting the dramatic side to it, both actors are worthy of Oscar nominations. Cooper, who I previously only knew as "that douchebag from The Hangover", is simply incredible here, and is perfectly complimented by Lawrence, who, despite being only twenty two years old, has managed to prove again and again how talented she is. Both actors know how to handle their dramatic moments well without going over the top, and have fantastic comedic timing. Cooper goes for a more subtle, quiet performance but Lawrence is like a firecracker, exuding attitude and making quite an impression from the moment she walks on screen. Just look at her scene with De Niro- who's also terrific, by the way. The sequence in which Tiffany and Pat Sr. fight about the superstitious forces controlling the outcome of Philadelphia Eagles' games (which play a major part in the story) remains my favorite moment of any films this year. The way Lawrence, who is a beloved but still young member of this industry, and a veteran like De Niro go toe-to-toe in a realistic but charming faction showcase just how much talent is involved with this film, both on screen and off.

Playbook is also one of the few films I've seen this year that have actually managed to connect with me on an emotional level. This year has been one of technical achievements (Cloud Atlas, The Master and Argo, for example) but very few movies that have made me fall in love with it's characters and smile the whole way through. And that's because O. Russell manages to make everything feel so real and doesn't go for big emotional speeches or shockingly dramatic twists. Any important procolomations that must be made are done so in as few words as possible. Take, for example, De Niro's tearful talk with Cooper about his own shortcomings as a father. In a lesser director's hand, the depressing music would be blaring through the speakers and De Niro would be crying hysterically. Instead, the moment is quick, quiet, and natural. De Niro's teary eyes feel well earned. Then there is the sexual tension between Cooper and Lawrence. I was reminded of classic film couples, like Lemon and MacLaine from The Apartment, whenever they shared the screen, yet they spoke with a decidedly modern (and, occasionally, foul mouthed) tongue.

I'm not sure what it was about this film that it took me two times to realize just how much I loved it. But, I implore you, please seek it out and support it. This is one of the best films I've seen this year, and one that definitely needs support from all corners as Oscar season sneaks upon us. Cooper, De Niro and especially Lawrence give fantastic performances and, I promise, by the twenty minute mark you'll be so invested in the film you won't care about the cliches. Instead, you'll sit back, smile, and prepare to be swept off your feet by this charming little film.

OVERALL GRADE: A+

My next batch of Oscar predictions...

Will be arriving on Thursday, December 13th. I decided it'd be better off to wait till after the GG nominations are announced as it would probably be more accurate.

Skyfall- A Fun Ride From Start to Finish

Confession: I've never seen a James Bond film. Does that make me a bad film geek?

I'm not sure, but having seen Skyfall I suppose my days of being a 007 virgin are done with, and I don't think I could have selected a better film to take it away from me. Skyfall is a great action film that will keep audiences, Bond fan or not, on the edge of their seat. This is a pure adrenaline ride filled with all the action, beautiful women and witty one liners (I've heard) a 007 film deserves.

Comparisons to The Dark Knight are certainly warranted when talking about Skyfall as this film certainly seems intent on living out the typical character arc that 'dark and edgy heroes' must undergo these days. In fact, certain scenes felt like they were lifted out of Nolan's genre defining Batman film. That's not a criticism so much as it is an observation. While I was constantly aware of how similar the two films were, it never bothered me, simply because the film has some very distinct differences. Daniel Craig, and James Bond himself, are very different people than Christian Bale and Batman, making this feel like a familiar ride in a very different vehicle. The plot may be moody and dark, but the tone director Sam Mendes and Craig strike is a lot more lighthearted than you may think. There are a ton of one liners, charming banter, and outright fun displayed on screen where it doesn't feel like a complete rip off. Add in a screenplay that may be riddled with plot holes but can at least acknowledge the fact that Bond is aging (it's his 50th birthday, to be precise), and you have yourself a film that's not copying Nolan's trilogy but, instead, feels inspired by it.

Then there's the action. I've been very picky (read: angry) about the action films this year and their inability to entertain me in the slightest, with the exception of The Avengers. Skyfall is, by far, the best action film since Joss Whedon's superhero epic, and features some of the most exhilarating scenes of the year. Special mention must be made of the film's opening sequence, which literally throws audiences into the action. Making the action even better is the stunning cinematography from Roger Deakins. This film is absolutely phenomenal to look at and is worth picking up on Bluray solely to see the film in HD.

I also don't think you can even begin to review Skyfall without making mention of Javier Bardem's thrilling villain, Silva. Bardem is terrifying, entertaining and oddly charismatic as this psychopath of a character, and watching him interact with Bond (or, any character really) is a thrill. Bardem is so good it feels like almost all of his actions are improvised on the spot, as he is completely in character. The rest of the cast is strong (what do you expect with legends like Judi Dench and Ralph Fiennes?) but nobody comes close to Bardem's level in this film.

Skyfall has nothing profound to say, other than that the Bond franchise will truly never die, but it'd be nice to have a fun diversion to the sometimes weighty Oscar fare will be exposed to as the year goes on. This is a truly entertaining film which, I think will leave many satisfied. So, if you find yourself looking for a good time at the movies later this year, check out Skyfall, Bond fan or not.

OVERALL GRADE: A-

Flight- Doesn't Add Up to the Sum of It's Parts

The trailer for Flight sells the first twenty minutes of the film. The rest of the movie? That would require a different trailer entirely. This is more Leaving Las Vegas than whatever sort of film the marketing team put together, and that's not a bad thing. But while Leaving Las Vegas was an unflinching, extremely dark film about alcoholics and drug addicts, Flight tries to have it's cake and eat it too. Mind you, I'm not comparing the two films, just saying that Flight tries hard at being an edgy drama, somewhat succeeds, and then tries to tack on an overly emotional finale. The result is a stunningly well acted, but overly preachy, drama that's worth seeking out but isn't as great as the sum of its parts.

You can't talk about Flight, however, without first addressing the actual flying scene. Believe the hype: this is one of the most intense scenes of the year, with stunning direction from Robert Zemeckis. It's the sort of scene that I'd love to see deconstructed at some point in the future, so we can figure out how exactly he managed to direct it the way he did. It's an astonishing sequence to behold, and really sets you up for an intense film. Unfortunately, the rest of the film never regains the same momentum.

Now, that's not a bad thing. The rest of the film is entertaining and I certainly was never bored. But, there is no denying that the rest of the film feels significantly different than that sequence. In fact, it feels like a bit of a different film. This is a story about two addicts, pilot Whip (Washington) and photographer Nicole (Kelly Reilly, who is not even featured in the trailers or commercials), and how they deal with their troubling pasts and questionable future. This is where the film starts to come apart at the seams. I'll try to avoid spoilers, but Whip's road to redemption is, obviously, a bumpy one. His troubles along the way are necessary for good drama, yes, but I wouldn't have minded a few less pitfalls along the way. It feels a bit redundant when halfway through the film Whip decides to stop drinking as we know he's going to have to take a drink, for the sake of the plot, at a later time. I also find his relationship with Nicole to be a bit questionable. Their is certainly sexual tension between them and, (minor spoiler) they sleep together shortly after meeting, but are they romantic? Or are they just friends? It's never completely addressed, and due to that we never get a real sense of the stakes at hand. Why is it that Nicole wants Whip to sober up so badly near the end of the film?

The film also has an uneven mixture of "edginess" and hopefulness. What I loved (and, in a way, hated) about Leaving Las Vegas is the way it repeatedly punched the viewers in the gut with the turns in the plot, refusing to sell out at any point and provide an unrealistic happy ending. Flight attempts to provide the same edginess, but never reaches that same point. Sure, we see a surprising amount of nudity, lots of drug use, and some pretty dark scenes depicting Whip's alcoholism, but it's never nearly as dark as we are lead to believe. Then, at the end, the film tries to become optimistic and hopeful, which completely negates the dark tone of the first half. It's uneven and more than a bit clumsy.

Yet, there is a lot to praise about this film. Namely, Denzel Washington. One of the few movie stars we have left in America, Denzel turns in what is most likely his strongest performance as Whip. It's a role that, I feel, deserves an Oscar nomination and all the praise he's been receiving. It's hard to play a drunk- you can be too over-the-top, unintentionally funny, or just not drunk enough. Washington does it all perfectly, making us root for Whip but also feel pity and get angry whenever he takes another drink. Washington is also surrounded by a stellar supporting cast, all of whom give in wonderful performances. John Goodman, Don Chedale, and Tamara Tunie are all fantastic, while relative newcomer Kelly Reily really left me impressed with just how talented she was.

I also enjoyed the way faith was incorporated into the film. Sure, some will say that the film was too preachy. And, in a way, it was. The filmmakers are not exactly subtle about the religious theme in the film. Yet, I totally bought it. Growing up in a very religious home, I sat through many "Christian" films which, frankly, are terrible. Although I now identify as agnostic, it still makes me upset to see the idea of God and religion being saved for such crappy films. Flight may not be subtle about the idea of a "higher power" but I at least respect the fact that they treat religion in a realistic and fairly dark way, and don't just rely on it as a cheesy plot device.

Flight features one of the best performances of the year but it's not one of the best films of the year. I wholly recommend it as a performance piece for Washington and I definitely think it will play differently to each audience member, but it just didn't completely appeal to me. With a tighter script and the decision to either become more dark or less dark, this could have been great. In the end, it's just good.

OVERALL GRADE: B

Magic Mike- By Far, The Biggest Surprise of 2012

As a straight male in the prime of his youth, watching a film in which Channing Tatum, Alex Pettyfr and other attractive 20-30something men prance around in thongs while women scream in ecstasy just doesn't sound like a good time. But Showgirls this is not. And if any award must be handed out for this film, I feel like it simply has to be Most Misleading Advertising Campaign to whoever marketed this blockbuster hit. This film is not some plotless comedy that serves as a vehicle for People's Sexiest Man of 2012 to strip off his clothes. This is an intelligent, well directed and extremely entertaining movie that I'd be willing to bet...wait for it...guys would enjoy more than women.

In a weird way, Magic Mike is the story of what it means to be a man in today's society. Are we supposed to be brimming with masculinity and obsessed with trying to dominate the women in our lives? Are we supposed to be financially successful? How long can we live a life of "fun" before we have to get serious? These are the questions that Magic Mike subtly poses throughout the film. But, the film is certainly more interested in keeping the audience entertained, which brings me to the stripping scenes. Now, granted, I'm not attracted to Channing Tatum (or any in the men of this movie) but I just cannot imagine how anybody would be turned on by the stripping scenes. With a single exception, the scenes are so over the top and cheesy that, in my opinion, it removes any sort of eroticism from the film. That's not a flaw- this was obviously Steven Soderbergh's intention- but it's just an observation I had. To be frank, if you are uncomfortable with watching this film because of the stripping scenes, I just have to assume that you're uncomfortable with your sexuality. Because, honestly, there is nothing remotely sexual about this film. And, if you are really worried about seeing (gasp!) a few male asses and a silhouetted penis, don't worry, Olivia Munn takes off her top within the first three minutes of the film.

Back to the "fun" aspect of the film, this movie, while occasionally serious at times and posing some interesting questions, is primarily a comedy. And a hilarious one at that. The film is genuinely amusing throughout and features a surprising compelling storyline, one that feels like a 2012 update of All About Eve set in the world of male stripping. The stripping scenes are so over the top you can't help but laugh (and wonder how the hell these men aren't being arrested for sexual harassment) and the non-dance scenes are just as amusing. Even the 'serious' moments in the film aren't all that serious. Magic Mike kept me constantly absorbed in the movie.

I also marveled at how realistic the film felt. In a more, shall we say, theatrical interpretation of this plot,   we'd be forced to sit through dramatic speeches, over-the-top professions of love and wacky hijinks. Soderbergh, however, treats the film as if it's a documentary. Even the music in the film, which was one of the highlghts for me, comes from stereos being played in the film. This is a very natural movie, one that avoids the cliches of this genre and feels oddly refreshing.

The cast also sells the naturalism. The biggest shock in the film: how well Channing Tatum can act. Now, I never hated Channing Tatum but there was no denying he was a bit...wooden. I guess it just took a brilliant director to get a great performance out of him though! Maybe it's because the story is inspired by his own life, but Tatum delivers a performance in which he feels completely comfortable. Radiating charisma, likability and a genuine sweetness, I wish the Academy would seriously consider him as a Best Actor candidate. In supporting roles, Alex Pettyfr and (especially) Matthew McConaughey impress, despite the fact that I despised them in most other films I've seen them in.

By far the film's biggest problem is actress Cody Horn. Now, Ms. Horn has potential as an actress and I think, with the right material, will give a strong performance at some point. But, Magic Mike just isn't that film. Horn comes off as awkward, emotionless and, frankly, a little boring. Tatum and his fellow actors all give understated performances, and I suppose that's what Ms. Horn is going for, but she instead comes off as robotic. Take, for example, a scene where she enters the strip club and watches a man dance on the stage. The camera consistently cuts back and forth to the performance and her face. But what is she feeling? Angry? Upset? Disturbed? Indifferent? We can't tell from her face, and that is quiet distracting.

I also wish we got to learn more about the supporting strippers in the film. Other than Tatum's Mike, Petyfrr's The Kid, and McConaughey's Dallas, we learn very little about the men in the movie. While, yes, they aren't important to the film's overall narrative arc, it'd be nice to see them do a bit more on screen. They, in the end, feel like colorful supporting characters that never really do much. Especially since many of them are played by relatively popular and talented actors.

I really can't stress enough how much I recommend this film. I went in with relatively low expectations and came out completely surprised. As of right now, it certainly places in my Top 10 of the year and can see it making the final cut. It's a well directed, extremely entertaining film that's not nearly as brainless as the trailers would lead you to believe. Check it out.

OVERALL GRADE: A

Moonrise Kingdom- A Charming Gem of a Movie

It's time for a confession: I had not seen a Wes Anderson film until Moonrise Kingdom. Simply because quirky films like Anderson used to be a huge pain for me to sit through and even now, after seeing some truly great films from that genre, most of them tend to rub me the wrong way. Yet, Moonrise Kingdom surpassed my expectations and quickly dug it's way into my heart. To be honest, it's one of the most lovable films I've seen all year and the sort of film that I think I will always be able to fall back on and re-watch whenever I'm in the mood to wear a huge grin on my face.

Anderson has a fantastic screenplay to work with, which he cowrote with Roman Coppola. The tone for this film is one that is constantly upbeat and charming, with lots of eccentricity and hilarity thrown into the mix. The film deals with all too relatable challenges associated with growing up- such as feeling like you're alone in the world, or that you're parents don't like you- but they are handled with a sweet sensitivity and without becoming overly dramatic. The quirkiness in the film also manages to improve the film and make it feel like an organic part of it, not like some unneeded addition. The quirks, also, tend to make the film even more wonderful. Edward Norton's grown up boy scout of a character is a wonder to behold, and I laughed out loud every time Tilda Swinton's character was referred to as "Social Services."  Add in that the film is often hilarious, with a ton of quotable one liners and a surprisingly sweet romance between the two youthful leads, and you have yourself a real winner of a movie.

The most noticeable thing about Moonrise Kingdom, however, is how beautiful it is. I'm not quite sure how Anderson managed to make the film look the way it does, but I was astonished by how stunning some of the shots were. From it's opening moments to it's closing scenes, every shot seems perfectly planned and serves as a real feast for the eyes. It's the sort of film you'd want to take screen shots of and hang them from your walls. As I mentioned above, I haven't seen any other Anderson films, and cannot offer a comparison, but I can say that Moonrise Kingdom is, by far, the best looking film I've seen this year.

I suppose it's time to list the negative aspects of this film, but I can really only think of one, and it would spoil a major part of the film. So, I'll try to tiptoe around it, but still address it. In my opinion, a certain subplot involving Frances McDormand's character was incredibly unnecessary and did not add anything to the film. It felt forced into an otherwise tight screenplay and, in the end, there are no real consequences as to why it happened. I also wish we had the time to find out more about the other boy scouts in the film, and maybe a little more about Suzy's siblings, but these are minor quibbles and not so much flaws.

Also, there was one more thing I really noticed about this film: In the past, I have been extremely critical of child actors. In fact, I tend to hate them. Yes there are the rare few that prove to be quite talented in front of the camera but, most of the time, they seem awkward and distracted. Kara Hayward and Jared Gilman are not a part of that majority. Both young actors have so much natural screen presence and radiate with charm and realism. Their comedic timing is impeccable for actors of their age, yet they never feel too mature for their age. Actors like Dakota Fanning and Chloe Moretz, while quite talented, come across as young teens who will be turning 30 next month. Gilman and Hayward are both filled with youth and childhood charm, but never act too old for their age. These are two refreshing performances that completely deliver. In fact, I'd say they give the best performances in the film, much better than their experienced adult counterparts like Norton, Willis and McDormand.

It's too early to say where Moonrise Kingdom will fall on my Top 10 list, but I really can't imagine an adequate list without this film appearing on it. I'm not sure if it's my favorite film of the year, but I feel as if it's the most re-watchable by a mile. It's consistently entertaining, heartwarming, hilarious and filled with so many stunning images that I feel like it will never get old. I can't wait to see it again, which, unfortunately, won't be until the holidays when I (hopefully) get it as a gift. But you don't have to wait that long! Check this film out as soon as possible, it's a truly special film.

OVERALL GRADE: A

Cloud Atlas- An Ambitious, Beautiful Film

An American lawyer in the 1800s who befriends a slave. An English musician in the 1930s who agrees to assist an aging composer. An investigative journalist in the 1970s who uncovers a huge conspiracy involving a nuclear reactor. An amoral book publisher in 2012 on the run from gangsters. A fabricant in Neo Seoul circa 2144 leading a rebellion against an oppressive government . A tribesman in a post apocalyptic Hawaii overcoming personal demons to assist a beautiful woman and overcome an army of cannibals. Six very different stories. Six very different genres. One epic movie. This is what makes Cloud Atlas so ambitious. Quite simply, nothing like it has ever been made. While these six stories may seem completely different and without any actual connection, the are all strung together not by a storyline but an idea: Can the actions of impact others for years to come? The Wachowskis and Tom Tkywer examine that question in one of the best films of the year.

Clocking in at nearly three hours, there is no denying that Cloud Atlas is a lengthy film. That being said, I did not feel the three hours once. The film moves by at a fairly quick pace, without any scenes that feel tacked on or unimportant. In fact, every scene feels important and central to the primary theme of the film. Whether it be an intense action sequence or a quiet moment, each moment feels significant and, often, powerful. Also, while I'm sure some of the detractors of the film will argue that the stories are not completely connected, I would beg to differ. The Wachowskis and Tkywer made the distinct decision to not display the stories in a linear format and, instead, cut back and forth between the six different stories. This may feel overwhelming or confusing, but by looking past the story being told on screen viewers will see the film's actual stories: Of a man (Tom Hanks) who evolves from a despicable human being into a selfless hero, and the woman (Halle Berry) who inspires him to change his way. Of a couple (Jim Sturges and Doona Bae) who constantly try to protect the men and women on the fringes of society. And of the people on the fringes of society due to race or sexual orientation (David Gyasi and Ben Whisaw) trying to find independence. As one of Berry's six characters, Luisa Rey, says in the trailer "I'm trying to figure out why we keep making the same mistakes." That question, and many others, are the real story of Cloud Atlas. The rest is just the tool used to tell it.

But to tell such a story writers and directors must employ top notch editing skills and show true talent behind the camera. These three directors are more than up for the challenge and, again, displaying the stories simultaneously proved to be a wonderful decision. Each story works well on their own, but seeing a suspenseful moment on a slave ship in the 1800s intercut with an futuristic shootout gives an exhilarating feeling, that all too rare emotion that what we are watching is truly unique and unlike anything we've ever seen before. This intercutting also packs the biggest emotional punch. Seeing Berry and Hanks attempt to find love throughout the timeline makes it all the more better when they do and all the more sadder when they do not.

Now, the make up for the film, to be honest, is terrible. There is just no way to deny it. Was it intentional? I don't think so, but I'd be willing to hear some arguments about that. But, to be honest, I didn't mind all too much. Sure it's a bit distracting when Jim Sturges has to play a Korean but looks like a British man telling a racist joke, and when Hugo Weaving plays a malicious nurse in 2012 he doesn't look like a woman but a man in drag. And, the rare times the make up does look convincing, such as when Halle Berry plays a white woman in the 1930s, the effect wears off the second you realize that you are, in fact, looking at Halle Berry. Yet, I stopped caring about that due to the strength of the performances behind the makeup. The actors behind the makeup really sell the performance. Did I, even once, believe that Jim Sturges was actually a freedom fighting Korean? Or that Hugo Weaving was a Nurse Ratched-esque villain? Yes, I did, and not because of the makeup. The acting is, simply, one of a kind. Nobody here really seems like a weakest link, but if I had to highlight a few key actors, I'd say that Hanks, Jim Broadbent, Ben Whisaw and Doona Bae deliver the strongest performances. Bae gives one of my favorite performances of the year as Sonmi-451, and I hope she manages to break out into American films soon. Broadbent, who is great at playing over the top (see: Moulin Rouge!) finds a nice balance between realism and exaggeration while playing publisher Timothy Cavendish, and also steals scenes as the villainous Vyvyan Ayrs. Whisaw, who also delivers a solid performance in Skyfall, does a great job as Frobisher, one of the more dramatic and depressing characters in the film. And Hanks is simply a marvel. The fact that Hanks has built his reputation on being a 'nice guy' in almost all of his pictures, seeing him play a villain is shocking but a reminder of how talented he really is. Then, when he transforms into a hero, we are reminded how much we love him as 'the nice guy.'

Will everybody love Cloud Atlas? The middling box office results seem to say no, but I'd be willing to bet that, let's say, twenty years from now it will build up a reputation a la Blade Runner. A film this ambitious isn't goint to set the world on fire right away, and that's fine. I'm just happy to have the Wachowskis back in my life. Bound and The Matrix are both wonderful films, and Cloud Atlas can now join that list. And, in a way, the Wachowskis are bigger than ever. Lana Wachowski has become an icon for transgenders in Hollywood, and has become a true inspiration (have you seen her speech at the Visibility Awards? It's incredible!). Their next film also has two of the biggest movie stars working today, Channing Tatum and Mila Kunis, attached. Despite the film's status as a box office disaster (which is a shame considering the $100 million budget was paid, out of pocket, by the three directors) those two aren't going anywhere. And, I didn't forget about Tom Twyker. I haven't seen a film of his, but I certainly plan on it now. Right now, the film may be viewed as a financial disaster and a film that divided most critics. I say it's a visually stunning, beautiful epic with big ideas blockbusters should incorporate more often. I also say that the film is bound to be viewed in a much more positive light as the year's go by. And, lastly, I say that the film is one of the very best I've seen this year. Go see it, you might be impressed or, at the very least, treated to something you've never seen before.

Let's Get Down to Business: Breaking Down the Big 8 Categories

Whether you realize it or not, we are well into Oscar season. Over the next few weeks, there is at least one movie for film geeks and Oscar lovers to check out. I, unfortunately, have been behind on my Oscar movie calendar due to Hurricane Sandy but by next weekend I should be completely caught up with my schedule (or, at the very least, Thanksgiving). That being said, it's time to get serious. A majority of the Oscar films have premiered at this point or, at the very least, there is a sizable amount of buzz attached to them. While ranking the nominees was important, now it's time to break each category down. Once we get to the Critic Choice Awards and especially the Golden Globes my predictions will be almost definite but, until then, we move into stage two of Oscar forecasts: Breaking Down the Nominees!

BEST PICTURE:

THE LOCKS: Argo, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
WHY ARE THEY LOCKS?: Argo is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year and with a plot Academy voters will love and a major backing from mainstream audiences, it's a major threat to the rest of the year's nominees for the award. Les Miserables, meanwhile, is one of the most buzzed about films of the year and Universal has a lot of faith in the film. It's most certainly getting in there, and could win it all. Lincoln is said to be a return to form for Spielberg after a few duds, but if even one of his duds (War Horse) could get a BP nomination, one of his best will most certainly fit in there. Finally, Silver Linings Playbook is swooping in this Thanksgiving and will most definitely have critics and audiences eating it up. All four films will most definitely be nominated, and stand a good chance at winning as well.

FIGHTING FOR THE REMAINING SLOTS: Django Unchained, Flight, Hitchcock, Life of Pi, The Impossible, The Master, The Sessions
HOW LIKELY ARE THEY? It's an intense fight for the remaining slots, and it's very tough to see what will actually make the cut. If I were a betting man, I'd say that Django Unchained and Life of Pi would most definitely make the cut, but I think it's too early to call either a lock. Flight, The Sessions and Hitchcock could have what it takes, but both feel like acting showcases as opposed to true Best Picture nominees. On the outside looking in are The Impossible, which will largely depend on mainstream critics, and The Master which, I feel, may have lost it's steam in this category.

POSSIBLE DARK HORSES: Amour, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
DO THEY HAVE A CHANCE?: At this point I doubt that Moonrise Kingdom has much of a chance, which is a shame as it's one of my favorites this year so far. At most, it could be this year's Midnight in Paris, but there are many more serious contenders compared to last year. Beasts of the Southern Wild has a slightly better push, but it will need a major end of year push from other award circuits. I have no clue if a positive critical reception could impact Zero Dark Thirty, as it may be viewed as simply a re-do of The Hurt Locker. And despite rave reviews, Amour has the massive hurdle of being a foreign film before getting a nomination.

AS OF RIGHT NOW, I'D PREDICT:

1. Argo
2. Beasts of the Southern Wild
3. Django Unchained
4. Les Miserables
5. Life of Pi
6. Lincoln
7. The Master
8. Silver Linings Playbook

Mid-October Oscar Update: The Master Shake-Up, Plus More Big Changes!

We're in the middle of October and the Oscar race is starting to heat up. We had a huge controversy that will seriously impact The Master's chances in all categories. Flight and Lincoln both premiered and we have a more clear indicator of what to expect with those films in terms of potential nominations. And we've had the premiere of Argo, Smashed and The Sessions, which allows us to see just how much of a standing it will have in the long run. Let's get started-

REMEMBER- this is a ranking as to how likely a film is to be nominated in the category, with one meaning the most likely. Once we get later into Oscar season (mid November- early December) I will begin posting definitive Oscar nomination predictions. I've also stopped my rankings at 15 for all categories. An asterisk (*) next to the films/actors/writers/directors I'd consider locks. 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo *
2. Silver Linings Playbook *
3. Les Miserables *
4. Lincoln *
5. Life of Pi *
6. Django Unchained
7. Hitchcock
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Master
10. The Impossible
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Amour
13. The Hobbit- An Unexpected Journey
14. Moonrise Kingdom
15. Anna Karenina

ANALYSIS: At this point, I see no reason to move my top four picks. Argo is still my favorite for the win, with Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables and Lincoln all seeming like surefire nominations. There are a few major shifts from that point on, however, as The Master has moved all the way down to number nine. Due to Joaquin Phoenix's controversial anti-Oscar rant this week, as well as The Master's dismal box office returns and the fact that it was released just outside of the prime awards season, I could see The Master being shunned from the Best Picture race, though, as of right now, I see it just barely making it into the Top 10. Moving up a few slots- Life of Pi, which received positive word of mouth. I could see it being this year's Hugo. Django Unchained also looks wonderful, but Tarantino films are hard to predict. Still, Django seems like a relatively safe bet for the Academy. I also fell in love with the Hitchcock trailer, and could really see that securing a nomination, though that could change once reviews start coming in. Beasts, The Master and The Impossible are all distinct possibilities, with number 11-15 waiting in the wings as unlikely picks. 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln *
2. John Hawkes, The Sessions *
3. Denzel Washington, Flight
4. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
5. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
7. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
8. Matt Damon, Promised Land
9. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
10. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
11. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

ANALYSIS: Phoenix's comments will, no doubt, hurt his chances at winning. No, don't be mistaken. I do not think Daniel Day Lewis will win. He's already won twice, and his last win was just a few years ago. But, he's almost guaranteed a nomination. On the contrary, assuming he gets a nomination, I could see John Hawkes taking home the award. I'm considering him a lock for now, but I suppose it's a bit up in the air. Still, I see him being a strong contender. The recent reviews for Flight have made me think that Washington will certainly find himself amongst the nominees, with Phoenix being lowered considerably to slot four. Slot four and five (which I currently being held by Hopkins for Hitchcock) could easily be swapped out for Hugh Jackman or Bradley Cooper once we get later in the year. As for Damon, Pitt, Foxx and Lerman, there chances are slowly diminishing and could be removed from the next update.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook *
2. Hellen Mirren, Hitchcock
3. Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Keira Knightely, Anna Karenina
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
6. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
9. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

ANALYSIS: A quick note on this, I removed Maggie Smith simply because I had no idea what to expect with her nomination for Quartet. Lead? Supporting? No one seems to know yet. The fact remains, Jennifer Lawrence is the front runner by a mile in my eyes. The rest of the category is a war zone: You've got Hellen Mirren looking strong in the Hitchcock trailer (maybe even stronger than Hopkins?) and Quevanzhane Wallis looking strong, if she can overcome the hurdle of her age. Slightly less likely is Knightely, who I think could get in despite her polarizing film, and Watts, who the Academy doesn't seem to love much, but, it's The Impossible's best chance at serious awards representation. Just barely out of the top five are two actresses giving supposedly powerful performances in foreign films, Emmanuelle Riva and Marion Cotillard, who could sneak in their if the Academy responds well to their films. Meanwhile, Meryl Streep and Mary Elizabeth Winstead sit far on the outside as their films seem to have been forgotten by the Academy and serious critics. Especially a shame since the supposedly brilliant Winstead is getting virtually no representation from Sony Picture Classic. 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained *
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*
3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
5. Alan Arkin, Argo
6. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
7. Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
8. Bryan Cranston, Argo
9. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
10. Matthew McCanaughey, Magic Mike
11. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
12. Jude Law, Anna Karenina
13. Tom Holland, The Impossible
14. William H. Macy, The Sessions

ANALYSIS: With Lincoln premiering this month, I removed many actors from that film and have focused the category around Tommy Lee Jones who is, supposedly, the best thing about the film. Both he and DiCaprio are, in my opinion, locks. DiCaprio is long overdue in a big film where he looks fantastic, and Jones is a veteran actor turning in one of his best performances in recent memory. Both are locks. Narrowly escaping lock status is De Niro, while Phillip Seymour Hoffman has been lowered (again) to the Phoenix controversy. Arkin and Crowe will likely duke it out for the fifth slot, but I'm giving Arkin the upper hand for now. Holbrook could sneak in if Promised Land is any good, Cranston is well liked in Argo, Waltz looks strong in Django Unchained and McConaughey is supposedly fantastic in Magic Mike. Henry, Law, Holland and Macy all stand a slight chance, but they could be crushed by the big names. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables *
2. Helen Hunt, The Sessions *
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
8. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
9. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
10. Frances McDormand, Promised Land

ANALYSIS: Hathaway is a lock. We've known that. And Hunt seems like a lock now with The Sessions getting such brilliant reviews now that it's hit theaters. Meanwhile, Field and Adams seem like the likely gals to stick out from the remaining bunch, but it could get competitive. Johansson looks like solid in Hitchcock, but Barks could break out with Les Miserables and Chastain looks good in Zero Dark Thirty (though I have no clue if she is lead or supporting). We can't forget about Washington, Weaver and McDormand though. The competition isn't filled with heavy hitters, but it's still a tough field to pick. 

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo *
2. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables *
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln *
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook 
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
8. Benh Zaitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

ANALYSIS: Having just seen Argo (review to come in a little bit), I feel confident in saying that Ben Affleck has a good chance at winning the award. Even if the Academy splits the Best Picture and Best Director winner, I feel as if Affleck has a better chance at winning Best Director than Argo does for Best Picture. And that's because my number two pick for the category, Tom Hopper, just won a Best Director Oscar and I doubt the Academy would give him one again so quickly. Reviews for Lincoln make it seem like he's a shoo-in for a nomination, but he just doesn't have enough buzz to seem like the winner. Could O. Russell get it for Silver Linings Playbook? It's possible, but the film still seems light to me. if anything, Playbook would take home Best Picture and Affleck will take home Best Director. The rest of the potentials (Anderson, Lee, Tarantino and Zaitlin) all seem like long-shots at the moment. We'll see if any future developments could change that.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

1. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
4. Matt Damon and John Krasinski, Promised Land
5. Michael Haneke, Amour
6. John Gatins, Flight
7. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
8. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths 
9. Rian Johnson, Looper
10. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike

ANALYSIS: With the loss of buzz for The Master, I'm having Tarantino swoop in as the top choice for a nomination, but this category is still wide open. If there are any locks, it's the top three, but even they don't seem like sure things. The rest of the nominations all seem like dark horses even for a nomination. Hopefully, as the awards season approaches, we get a more clear front runner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Chris Terrio, Argo *
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook * 
3. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln *
4. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
5. William Nicholson, Les Miserables
6. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. David Magee, Life of Pi
8. John J. McLaughlin, Hitchcock
9. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
10. Ronald Harwood, Quartet

ANALYSIS: I'd say the top three are locks. They are all big projects, the films are being well received and the Academy will surely want to honor them in this category. The rest, however, is wide open. The Sessions seems relatively likely, but if films like Life of Pi or Hitchcock really impress, they could fill out the category. Then there's Les Miserables, which I can't quite place my finger on. The film seems like one of the biggest films of the season, but will they be willing to nominate a film that will be primarily in song, not to mention previously published song? It'll be interesting, to say the least. I'm also secretly hoping that Summit pushes for a Perks nomination, but I really don't see that happening. As for Quartet, I just don't know what to expect.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Frankenweenie
3. ParaNorman
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. From Up on Poppy Hill
6. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untold Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
7. Brave

ANALYSIS: No locks yet for this one. If Wreck-it-Ralph delivers (and I really hope it does) then I could see it winning. Frankenweenie's dismal box office is hurting it's chances, and ParaNorman's buzz has died down, but I just don't know what other films could be nominated in their place. I think Brave's mixed response will likely hurt it, but maybe I'm wrong? This category is tough to predict for sure.

FOR NEXT TIME: The next time I post this, Wreck-it-Ralph and Flight would have hit theaters, and we will hopefully have more buzz on a few others. I hope to see The Sessions by then, but that all depends on whether or not it expands quickly enough. If it doesn't expand soon, I'll probably go see it in mid-November in New York, during a double feature with Anna Karenina. Only time will tell though. Anyway, reply in the comments! 

The Perks of Being a Wallflower- One of the Year's Must See Movies

Have you read The Perks of Being a Wallflower? Well, if you haven't, I highly recommend you give it a read.  It's a true page turner, and a novel which, I feel, extends far past the typical expectations of the teen novel genre and proves to be an emotional novel for all readers. But I'm not here to talk about the novel, I'm here to talk about the film, which happens to be directed by the book's author, Stephen Chbosky. And, despite some changes from the source material, Perks stands tall as one of the year's must see films.

The story of the introverted, and possibly disturbed, high school freshmen Charlie (Logan Lerman) could have been a cliched coming of age story. But, like the novel, Charlie's experiences with his friends from "the island of misfit toys" prove to be relatable and refreshing. Don't be fooled by the 90s setting or the young stars on the poster- this is a film that any generation can appreciate, due to how realistic the universal experiences that make up high school are depicted. From experimentation with drugs, to the awkwardness of sex, to the more serious issues like bullying and depression, it all feels wonderfully accurate. I may not have been a teenager during the 90s, but I certainly can relate to Charlie's experiences with his friends. The parties he goes to, the dates he goes on and the seemingly unimportant car rides with his best friends all felt like experiences ripped from my own high school years, and I'd be willing to bet others will find similarities in at least some of his experiences.

That's where the real strength of Perks lies. Through the realism in the film, Chbosky creates a giant heart at the film's core that's impossible to resist. In lesser hands, many characters could have become gratingly annoying, or like characters we've seen countless times before. The flamboyant and boisterous Patrick (Ezra Miller) could have been annoying but, instead, is entertaining and brings much needed comedy during darker moments. Sam's (Emma Watson) "dream girl' status could have made her feel like a one dimensional love interest, but she ends up coming off as a fully realized and flawed character. The supporting roles- including Rocky Horror loving punk Mary Elizabeth (Mae Whitman) and in-the-closet jock Brad (Johnny Simmons) grow out of their archetypes and feel like real people you passed in the hallway at school. Perhaps most remarkable is the way Chbosky makes the audience fall in love with the narrator, Charlie. Charlie obviously has problems, and his almost childlike naiveté could have become grating.  But, Charlie never becomes annoying. You constantly want the best for him, laugh while he laughs, and cry when he cries. Audiences will learn to love them, and want to spend more time with them.

The Perks of Being a Wallflower is, also, exceedingly well cast. I wrote off Logan Lerman early in his career (sorry, but Percy Jackson looked terrible). But, here, Lerman gives a performance that feels perfectly realized and is simply stunning. I'd argue it's Oscar worthy, even though there is virtually no chance at a nomination. But, he's surrounded by equally talented actors. Ezra Miller has, by far, the "showiest" role as his Patrick is responsible for being the comedic backbone of the film, while also being required to show the pain that comes with being an openly gay student in a close minded high school. Miller lives up to the challenge. As Sam, Emma Watson also delivers a strong performance, even if she is the weakest of the three. As a fan of the novel, I still feel Watson was slightly miscast. I just don't buy the fact that her character would have anything resembling a promiscuous past. But, Watson certainly shows her dramatic chops here, and has a remarkable amount of chemistry with Lerman. And her American accent? Perfect! Other wonderful casting decisions include the charming Mae Whitman, who helps make her abrasive character sympathetic and lovable,  as well as a perfectly cast Paul Rudd, who plays the "teacher role model" role perfectly without ever becoming creepy, and Melanie Lynskey as Charlie's late Aunt Helen.

As a whole, Perks works, delivering all the necessary drama, comedy and inspiration a coming of age dramadey would need. But, it's in the individual moments that the film's true power is revealed. Fans of the book will be happy to see how well their favorite moments are re-enacted. The Rocky Horror sequences are fun and hilarious. Charlie and Patrick's bonding over their relationship woes are heart breaking. The novel's memorable line, which signifies the book/film's theme, "We accept the love we think we deserve" is delivered perfectly, and fully explored during the rest of the film. And, perhaps most importantly, the "infinite" scene is directed beautifully, with all the emotional power you'd expect. Don't know what I'm talking about? Well then, go see the film! Trust me, you will be moved.

There have been many great films so far this year, but none have impacted me emotionally quite like The Perks of Being a Wallflower, and it's not just because I love the book. This is a well made, brilliantly acted drama that may be about teens, but can appeal to anyone. If you write this film off as "just another teen movie", you will miss out on one of the year's very best. Please, go check it out!

OVERALL GRADE: A+

Looper- A Bloody Breath of Fresh Air

Looper may borrow elements from Terminator, 12 Monkeys and other science fiction classics, but make no mistake: this is a wholly original film. Rian Johnson has crafted an exciting, thought provoking and intelligent movie that could, eventually, stand with the very films it seems influenced by as "the best of the genre."

The advertising campaign for Looper has, wisely, left much of the main plot secret, instead focusing on the fact that Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon Levitt are the same person, and that Levitt is trying to kill his older self. Don't find out anything else about this movie! The film becomes more and more fascinating as it's different layers are exposed, constantly surprising the audience with the direction it takes. Also worth praising is the way Johnson's screenplay isn't afraid to break the genre rules and get very dark when necessary. Without ever becoming too over the top or overly violent, Looper pushes itself into places mainstream films don't always go, and that helps to make the film even more unpredictable. The film features one of the most disturbing death scenes I've seen in recent memory, a sequence which prompted a woman in the audience I saw it with to walk out, and also features some surprisingly edgy subject matter. But, the way it incorporate such material doesn't feel exploitative, but organic.

Much also has to be said about Joseph Gordon Levitt's performance. Playing another actor, which is essentially what Levitt is doing in this film, is always a challenge. The fact that he's playing such a larger than life personality only adds to it. But, Levitt nails the performance, completely transforming into Willis. His voice, mannerisms and the way he exudes a 'tough guy' persona (something which Levitt never really had) is stunning. He disappears into the part. The other performances are all uniformly solid- Willis turns in one of his best performances in years, while Blunt also turns in a very subtle, but powerful, performance. Actors in minor roles, including Garret Dillahunt, Jeff Bridges and Piper Perabo also add to the film.

It's somewhat amusing that, after a summer where many films that cost hundreds of millions of dollars failed to entertain in the slightest, a film that caused a fraction of their budget proved to be one of the most exciting films of the year. Looper is an intense thrill ride that remains consistently exciting and suspenseful. The big, loud shootouts, such as the heavily marketed diner showdown, are well crafted, but don't overshadow the quiet anxiety formed during the film's less explosive moments. And, while the film certainly has the brains most action films lack, their is still plenty of brawn to be found. When Bruce Willis picks up some guns and blasts his way through an army of enemies, you still feel the same rush of adrenaline to be found in his classic blockbusters. This is marriage of action and intellect, with a dash of emotion thrown in their- but I won't say anymore about that.

I will say a bit, however, on the films flaws which- however minor- were still present. For one thing, as convincing as Levitt seemed in the part, his make-up was truly horrendous. One shot in particular (trust me, you'll know which one I'm talking about) was just terrible and made Levitt look like the victim of a plastic surgery gone horribly wrong. Another problem for me was Paul Dano who, in a small part, fails to live up to his usual standards. He is doing a lot of overacting here, and it gets annoying fast. My final nitpick is, naturally, some of the time travel holes. Or, actually, the way the film quickly dismisses them. At first I admired Johnson for completely eliminating anyone willing to pick apart the science of his film but, upon reflection, the line (something along the lines of "I don't want to talk about time travel, we'll be making diagrams with straws here the whole day") feels condescending. In a film with many great lines, this one falls flat and essentially admits that their are holes in the film's logic. And their are, but, I did not notice them during the film and think the movie remains strong with them. That line wasn't necessary. Still these are minor complaints that just barely distract from an otherwise wonderful film.

If you haven't seen Rian Johnson's other two films, the high school set neonoir Brick and the caper comedy The Brothers Bloom, seek them out right away. Looper may not be my favorite of his films (The Brothers Bloom, my fourth favorite of 2009,  had a huge emotional impact on me) but it stands tall as one of the year's very best. Even with minor problems, you will definitely get your money's worth in adrenaline and intellectual stimulus.

OVERALL GRADE: A

Early October Oscar Bracket Update

With September over, there hasn't been too much change to my Oscar brackets but enough to warrant another post. This month sees the release of quite a few Oscar movies, so it will be interesting to see what we'll be talking about by the end of the month, in terms of nomination predictions. Anyway, here are my current Oscar predictions:

REMEMBER- this is a ranking as to how likely a film is to be nominated in the category, with one meaning the most likely. Once we get later into Oscar season (mid November- early December) I will begin posting definitive Oscar nomination predictions. I've also stopped my rankings at 15 for all categories.
Also, an update: I will be putting an asterisk (*) next to the films/actors/writers/directors I'd consider locks. 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo *
2. Silver Linings Playbook *
3. Les Miserables *
4. Lincoln *
5. The Master *
6. Life of Pi *
7. Django Unchained
8. Hitchcock
9. The Impossible
10. Beats of the Southern Wild
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Amour
13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
14. Moonrise Kingdom
15. Anna Karenina

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: The first major change to the brackets is the removal of Trouble With the Curve, which received largely negative reviews and didn't exactly set the box office on fire. I can't imagine it receiving any nominations, which is a shame considering it might be the last time we see Clint Eastwood on screen. My second major change is the addition of Hitchcock at number 8... I had no idea the film was even ready for release, and considering they are dropping it right in the middle of Oscar season could mean good things. But, I'm still waiting for a trailer to be sure. I've also moved Beasts of the Southern Wild down a few slots due to it's ineligibility at the SAG awards, which could hurt it, but I still feel it has the best shot out of all the "wild card" predictions.  In terms of locks, I'd consider my top six locks in the category, unless the ones which have not premiered yet (Les Miserables, Lincoln and Life of Pi disappoint). 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: 

1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master *
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln *
3. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock 
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Denzel Washington, Flight
8. Matt Damon, Promised Land
9. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
10. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
11. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: There are two nominees I'd consider almost guarantees at a nomination- Phoenix, who I think will win, and Day Lewis, who will most definitely be nominated. After that, we have a couple of great actors fighting for the remaining three slots. Notably, I've removed Eastwood from the list for the same reason I took Trouble With the Curve off my Best Picture bracket, while I also moved Pitt down a few slots due to some murmurs I heard that he will be campaigned in the Supporting category. Until I hear anything official, I won't remove him from my list. I also added two new actors, most notably Anthony Hopkins for Hithcock, a role that has Oscar bait written all over it. If it's as good as it could be, he's a shoo-in for a nomination. I also added Matt Damon for the drama Promised Land, which looks mediocre to me but could surprise and be an Oscar contender.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook *
2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina 
3. Hellen Mirren, Hitchcock
4. Maggie Smith, Quartet
5. Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
9. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Best Actress is, by far, the most difficult category to predict for me. There is only one guaranteed lock at this point, which is Lawrence, and everything below her is basically a guessing game. I was ready to have Wallis ruled as a lock as well, but I can't help but be worried by her ineligibility at the Screen Actors Guild award from affecting her chances. I also removed Viola Davis for Won't Back Down and Amy Adams for Trouble With the Curve, while also lowering Marion Cotillard a few notches due to that film not being chosen as the Foreign Language submission for France this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: 

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained *
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master *
3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
6. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
7. David Strathaim, Lincoln
8. Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
9. Bryan Cranston, Argo
10. William H. Macy, The Sessions
11. Joseph Gordon Levitt, Lincoln
12. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
13. Tom Holland, The Impossible
14. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
15. Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: With my top three seeming like locks at this point, and the top 5 staying the same, Supporting Actor remains the easiest category to predict- for now.  However there are a number of other actors who could sneak in. With the trailer for Lincoln dropping, it appears clear that Joseph Gordon Levitt, David Strathaim and especially Tommy Lee Jones could sneak in their. It also seems like Hal Holbrook stands Promised Land's best chance for a nomination, while increased buzz for Argo lead me to pushing Cranston up a few spots. But still, I feel pretty confident in my top five at the moment. I also moved Dwight Henry down due to the Beasts/SAG controversy. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables *
2. Amy Adams, The Master *
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
10. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
12. Frances McDormand, Promised Land
13. Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
14. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Finally, a category without many major changes.There are, however, two major additions- Scarlett Johansson and Frances McDormand! I also moved Sally Field up a slot after seeing the Lincoln trailer, but still feel like the locks in the category- Adams and especially Hathaway- stand a good chance at winning. 

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo *
2. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables *
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
8. Benh Zaitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild 

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Nothing really worth talking about- the only reason I bumped Hopper up a slot was because of that incredible behind the scenes look at Les Miserables that makes me thought (briefly) that it could take home the award for Best Picture. I'll wait for the premiere before calling that, but for now we'll see. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master *
2. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained *
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdon
5. Matt Damon and John Krasinski, Promised Land
6. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths
7. Rian Johnson, Looper
8. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
9. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Basically, I don't know what I was thinking putting Amour so low on the list last time. And I added Promised Land. But other than the locks, I feel like this is anyone's game.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Chris Terrio, Argo *
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
3. William Nicholson, Les Miserables
4. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln
5. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
6. Lucy Alibar and Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. David Magee, Life of Pi
8. John J. McLaughlin, Hitchcock
9. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
10. Ronald Harwood, Quartet

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved The Sessions up a slot due to the same exact SAG controversy I've been talking about since Best Picture. I also added Hitchcock the list due to that film's sudden addition the schedule.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Frankenweenie
3. ParaNorman
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. From Up on Poppy Hill
6. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
7. Brave

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved Rise of the Guardians up a few slots due to how many other Oscar prediction sites have it on their list. Still, this is a tough category to predict since we've only seen three of these films. I can't even truly say what I'd consider a lock at this point.

FOR THE NEXT UPDATE: My next update will be at the end of the month, after a number of Oscar films hit theaters and the New York Film Festival takes place. Stay tuned and leave comments or your own predictions!