Complete Oscar Predictions!

With the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild nominations announced, we're starting to get a clearer image of how the Oscar nominations will look next month. That being said, we've still got a long way to go and some shocking changes to a few brackets. Here is my complete list of Oscar predictions, with every category but the "unpredictable" ones (namely, short films, which is quite hard to predict). I'll be updating my Oscar predictions one last time on January 9, 2013, the day before the Academy announces their nominations. That will be a busy time for this blog as well as I'll have much more time to write since I'll be on winter break, will be seeing many more Oscar films and will (hopefully) have my Top 10 list completed by that time.

BEST PICTURE:

• Argo
• Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Django Unchained
• Les Miserables
• Life of Pi
• Lincoln
• Silver Linings Playbook
• Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: At this point, I feel safe in saying all eight of these films will make it into the Best Picture lineup. The only one I feel hesitant about is Beasts of the Southern Wild due to it's shocking snubs at the Golden Globes and SAGS, but I still feel like it will have enough buzz to break in. What I'm mostly worried about is what two films, namely Moonrise Kingdom and The Impossible, could possibly break into the lineup. But, I don't see getting the nom...yet. 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

• Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
• Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
• John Hawkes, The Sessions
• Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
• Denzel Washington, Flight

ANALYSIS: I truly believe that the SAG nominees will match the Academy's picks for best actor. Day-Lewis, Hawkes and Washington have been locks for a while, while Cooper and Jackman have been building buzz steadily and now have more attention than Phoenix or Hopkins, their main competition for the nomination. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

• Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
• Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
• Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
• Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
• Naomi Watts, The Impossible

ANALYSIS: Chastain and Lawrence have been locks for a while and will be duking it out for the win, but the rest of the category is a bit up in the air still. I was surprised to see Cotillard nominated at both the SAGs and the Golden Globes, especially since Emmanuelle Riva (who I always assumed had more buzz) was snubbed. Thus, I've moved Cotillard up but still don't feel like it's a 100% chance. I'm also worried about leaving Wallis but, in my opinion, there just aren't enough buzzed about actresses this year to keep her off. As for Watts, I debated between leaving her, Mirren or Weisz but I just feel like Watts will get the most attention throughout the next few weeks. It could change though.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

• Alan Arkin, Argo
• Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
• Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
• Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

ANALYSIS: I'd say Arkin, Jones and De Niro (despite his GG snub) are all locked in this category. That leaves one last slot, which is becoming increasingly hard to fill. What also worries me is Hoffman- he may have picked up a SAG nomination as well as a Golden Globe nom, but will the Academy pay attention. Especially with large supporting casts from Django Unchained and Les Miserables. My gut is telling me yes, but I could still foresee a snub. But, if any actor gets a nomination from The Master, it's Hoffman. As for the remaining slot, I'm giving it to DiCaprio. His status as an overdue actor and the fact that he's cast so against type will work in his favor. That being said, Crowe or Redmayne (from Les Miserables) or Christoph Waltz (from Django Unchained) could take his slot. We'll see.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

• Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
• Sally Field, Lincoln
• Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
• Helen Hunt, The Sessions
• Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

ANALYSIS: Let's face it: Hathaway, Field and Hunt aren't going anywhere. But, that leaves two wide open slots. No offense to Nicole Kidman, but there is no way in hell I can see her getting an Oscar nomination for a film that barely anybody liked, even if she was apparently quite good in it. Maggie Smith has a very good shot at getting in, I'd say, thanks to her SAG boost which leaves a final slot with three actresses competing to get in. The way I see it, it's Kidman vs. Amy Adams for The Master vs. Samantha Barks for Les Miserables. As of right now, I'm giving it to Barks. As I mentioned above, I don't see Kidman having much of a shot, and I don't think the Academy will be all that crazy for The Master which will hurt Adams chances. Barks, however, has a meaty role in her film, which has yet to be released and will build more buzz as time goes on. A nomination seems likely. 

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING:

• Ben Affleck, Argo
• Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
• Tom Hopper, Les Miserables
• Ang Lee, Life of Pi
• Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

ANALYSIS: Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg are all getting in, no doubt about it. And, I'd say that Hopper is pretty close to a guarantee as well. The one thing that worries me is his snub at the Golden Globes. But, I'm still giving him the benefit of the doubt. I hope I'm not wrong. As for the fifth slot, I debated giving it to Tarantino but I still feel like Lee has a real shot due to how visually stunning his film is, and how much that's sure to impress the Academy. That being said, I might change my mind once we get closer to Oscar time. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 

• Ben Lewin, The Sessions
• William Nicholson, Les Miserables
• David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
• Chris Terrio, Argo
• Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln

ANALYSIS: I feel a bit uneasy about leaving Les Miserables in here, but it's also hard to find a film to take its spot so I suppose it's a safe decision- for now. That being said, I feel Lincoln, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook are all locks, and am feeling quite confident about The Sessions as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

• Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
• Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
• Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
• John Gatins, Flight
• Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

ANALYSIS: Django Unchained and Zero Dark Thirty are both locked, I think, and the rest of the category is a bit of a guessing game, but one where you could make some pretty solid conclusions. I really think Moonrise Kingdom has a chance to slip in here, as well as The Master and Flight but I'd love to be wrong and see the Academy nominate more surprising films, like Looper or Magic Mike. 

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: 

• Roger Deakins, Skyfall
• Greig Fraser, Zero Dark Thirty
• Janusz Kaminski, Lincoln
• Mihai Malaimare Jr., The Master
• Claudio Miranda, Life of Pi

ANALYSIS: Life of Pi, Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty feel like locks to me, and I'd be willing to bet that Lincoln is close to a lock as well. I debated between putting The Master or Les Miserables or Anna Karenina, and decided to just go with my gut instinct and pick The Master. Come January, however, I could definitely change my mind.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:

• Rick Carter, Jim Erickson and Peter T. Frank, Lincoln
• Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Anna Karenina
• Adam Stockhausen and Kris Moran, Moonrise Kingdom
• Eve Stewart, Les Miserables
• David Crank, Jack Fisk and Amy Wells, The Master

ANALYSIS: This category feels very safe to me, I really can't imagine what else could get in here. But, that being said, I'm far from a professional with predicting and my gut instinct could be very wrong. Only time will tell.

BEST FILM EDITING:

• Chris Dickens, Les Miserables
• William Goldenberg, Argo
• Michael Kahn, Lincoln
• Tim Squyres, Life of Pi
• Dylan Tichenor, Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: Editing is a key Oscar for Best Picture hopefuls, thus it makes sense to put a lot of the Best Picture hopefuls in this category. When it comes to locks, I'm not totally sure, other than Argo and maybe Zero Dark Thirty, but the only two that I could see sneaking in are Django Unchained and The Impossible. So, we'll see.

BEST SOUND EDITING: 

• The Dark Knight Rises
• Django Unchained
• Flight
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: Truly, I know next to nothing about this category and what makes it different from Best Sound Mixing. So, these were all relative guesses based on little bursts of research I did concerning similar films in this category. We'll see if I'm right.

BEST SOUND MIXING: 

• The Dark Knight Rises
• Flight
• Les Miserables
• Skyfall
• Zero Dark Thirty

ANALYSIS: See above.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:

• Sharen Davis, Django Unchained
• Paco Delgado, Les Miserables
• Jacqueline Durran, Anna Karenina
• Joanna Johnston, Lincoln
• Anna Maskrey and Richard Taylor, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

ANALYSIS: Seeing as these are the main films incorporating costumes this year, these feel like safe picks. Granted, I might be wrong, but only time will tell.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIR STYLING:

• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 
• Les Miserables
• Lincoln

ANALYSIS: Again, these feel like the safest picks. Maybe Cloud Atlas will sneak in their? I guess that's somewhat likely. 

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:

• The Avengers
• Cloud Atlas
• The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
• Life of Pi
• Prometheus

ANALYSIS: The only one I'm not sure about here is Cloud Atlas, which is a shame as it definitely deserves the nomination. Maybe Snow White and the Huntsman will take it's place? I don't know, but I really hope that the Academy acknowledges Cloud Atlas with a nomination in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:

• Myhcael Danna, Life of Pi
• Reinhold Heil, Johnny Klimek andTom Tykwer, Cloud Atlas
• Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
• John Williams, Lincoln
• Dan Romer and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

ANALYSIS: Truthfully, few scores have stuck out this year. One of the two that did, the score for Beasts of the Southern Wild, is so terrific and completely worthy of the nomination. The other, Cloud Atlas, seems like a risky pick but given it's nomination at the Golden Globes I don't feel too risky. As for the other three, they seem like pretty solid predictions, especially Lincoln, but this is a tough category to predict for me. We'll see what happens, I guess. 

BEST ORIGINAL SONG:

• "100 Black Coffins" by Rick Ross from Django Unchained
• "Learn Me Right" by Birdy and Mumford & Sons from Brave
• "Skyfall" by Adele from Skyfall
• "Still Alive" by Paul Williams from Paul Williams Still Alive
• "Suddenly" by Hugh Jackman from Les Miserables

ANALYSIS: These categories are usually almost impossible to predict but this year we have a couple of high profile songs from many huge pop artists. With "Skyfall" eligible, I can't imagine it not being nominated. And we all knew that "Suddenly" would be nominated the second it was announced as being written for the film. Then we have "100 Black Coffins", which seems like a risky choice but it seems like the Academy has been fine with nominating rap songs as of late (see Hustle & Flow and 8 Mile). As for the other two nominations, "Learn Me Right" feels like a solid choice given the fact that it's by the (amazing) Mumford & Sons. I mean, they get tons of Grammy love, why not some Oscar love too? And I've, truthfully, never head of Paul Williams Still Alive but every major prediction site has it on it's lineup, so I felt I should too. 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:

• Brave
• Frankenweenie
• ParaNorman
• The Rabbi's Cat
• Wreck-it-Ralph

ANALYSIS: The only film from this bracket I could see being snubbed is ParaNorman, but I don't see what would take it's place. Maybe Hotel Transylvania or Rise of the Guardians? I don't know right now, so I'm keeping it in. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

• The House I Live In
• How to Survive a Plague 
• The Impostor
• The Invisible War
• Searching for Sugar Man

ANALYSIS: I've heard of Searching for Sugar Man, The Imposter and How to Survive a Plague, so I included them in my predictions. As for the other two slots, they sounded serious and like something the Academy would love, so I included it. 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

• Amour (Austria)
• The Intouchables (France)
• Lore (Australia)
• No (Chile)
• A Royal Affair (Denmark)

ANALYSIS: This is a tough category to predict every year, with one or two exceptions. For example, Amour and The Intouchables are definitely in. But the rest? It's quite difficult, really. So, take this lightly. I won't get much closer to accuracy. 

That's it for me, in terms of Oscar Predictions, until early January. Oscar season is really heating up, and as we reach the finish line it's important to take these nominations much more seriously. Hopefully my current predictions won't be off from how it actually turns out! We'll see what happens. 

Silver Linings Playbook- An Excellent Blur of Drama and Comedy

It took me two viewings but I'm now more than convinced that Silver Linings Playbook is one of the very best films of the year and one that almost anybody can appreciate. When creating a "disease dramadey" a director has to walk a very thin tightrope. If it is too funny, then it can be seen as being offensive to those with the disease. If it is too dramatic, then it can be perceived as ringing false or being melodramatic. David O. Russell manages to walk this tightrope with ease, however, and the audience is better off for it. Silver Linings Playbook is a very funny, but also appropriately dramatic film that deals with mental disorders realistically and also showcases some of the best performances of the year.

Having read the book of which the film is based, I was a bit apprehensive while walking into the theater. Russell is a talented director, no doubt, but the source material is heavily cliched and could easily translate terribly to film. For the most part, the film is faithful (with the exception of a much different, and considerably better, ending) yet the cliches, which are certainly present, don't even come close to the levels of annoyance they reached in the novel. Silver Linings Playbook is an example of how great direction, a talented cast and true emotional connectivity can better a film.

Let's be honest- we all know how the film will end. I won't explicitly spoil anything, but by looking at the poster or watching the trailers I highly doubt potential audience members will be scratching their heads and debating about the film's possible outcomes. That's not a bad thing though. In fact, Russell goes out of his way to show that the "will they/won't they" relationship between Cooper and Lawrence (who have enough chemistry to light up the screen, by the way) is not the main plot of the film. This is a movie about personal struggles with the obstacles in life, and as significant as the bond between these two characters is the main focus of the story is really on Cooper and his struggles to overcome his illness and find a silver lining amongst the troubles in his life. Likewise, Lawrence's Tiffany isn't looking for a man so much as she is trying to find somebody that understands what she goes through with her mental illness.

That's not to discredit the romance, however, which I truly found myself invested in. That's entirely a testament to Cooper and Lawrence, who sell the film (and their characters) perfectly. Finding some comedy behind their illnesses but never exploiting or forgetting the dramatic side to it, both actors are worthy of Oscar nominations. Cooper, who I previously only knew as "that douchebag from The Hangover", is simply incredible here, and is perfectly complimented by Lawrence, who, despite being only twenty two years old, has managed to prove again and again how talented she is. Both actors know how to handle their dramatic moments well without going over the top, and have fantastic comedic timing. Cooper goes for a more subtle, quiet performance but Lawrence is like a firecracker, exuding attitude and making quite an impression from the moment she walks on screen. Just look at her scene with De Niro- who's also terrific, by the way. The sequence in which Tiffany and Pat Sr. fight about the superstitious forces controlling the outcome of Philadelphia Eagles' games (which play a major part in the story) remains my favorite moment of any films this year. The way Lawrence, who is a beloved but still young member of this industry, and a veteran like De Niro go toe-to-toe in a realistic but charming faction showcase just how much talent is involved with this film, both on screen and off.

Playbook is also one of the few films I've seen this year that have actually managed to connect with me on an emotional level. This year has been one of technical achievements (Cloud Atlas, The Master and Argo, for example) but very few movies that have made me fall in love with it's characters and smile the whole way through. And that's because O. Russell manages to make everything feel so real and doesn't go for big emotional speeches or shockingly dramatic twists. Any important procolomations that must be made are done so in as few words as possible. Take, for example, De Niro's tearful talk with Cooper about his own shortcomings as a father. In a lesser director's hand, the depressing music would be blaring through the speakers and De Niro would be crying hysterically. Instead, the moment is quick, quiet, and natural. De Niro's teary eyes feel well earned. Then there is the sexual tension between Cooper and Lawrence. I was reminded of classic film couples, like Lemon and MacLaine from The Apartment, whenever they shared the screen, yet they spoke with a decidedly modern (and, occasionally, foul mouthed) tongue.

I'm not sure what it was about this film that it took me two times to realize just how much I loved it. But, I implore you, please seek it out and support it. This is one of the best films I've seen this year, and one that definitely needs support from all corners as Oscar season sneaks upon us. Cooper, De Niro and especially Lawrence give fantastic performances and, I promise, by the twenty minute mark you'll be so invested in the film you won't care about the cliches. Instead, you'll sit back, smile, and prepare to be swept off your feet by this charming little film.

OVERALL GRADE: A+

My next batch of Oscar predictions...

Will be arriving on Thursday, December 13th. I decided it'd be better off to wait till after the GG nominations are announced as it would probably be more accurate.