Mid-October Oscar Update: The Master Shake-Up, Plus More Big Changes!

We're in the middle of October and the Oscar race is starting to heat up. We had a huge controversy that will seriously impact The Master's chances in all categories. Flight and Lincoln both premiered and we have a more clear indicator of what to expect with those films in terms of potential nominations. And we've had the premiere of Argo, Smashed and The Sessions, which allows us to see just how much of a standing it will have in the long run. Let's get started-

REMEMBER- this is a ranking as to how likely a film is to be nominated in the category, with one meaning the most likely. Once we get later into Oscar season (mid November- early December) I will begin posting definitive Oscar nomination predictions. I've also stopped my rankings at 15 for all categories. An asterisk (*) next to the films/actors/writers/directors I'd consider locks. 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo *
2. Silver Linings Playbook *
3. Les Miserables *
4. Lincoln *
5. Life of Pi *
6. Django Unchained
7. Hitchcock
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Master
10. The Impossible
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Amour
13. The Hobbit- An Unexpected Journey
14. Moonrise Kingdom
15. Anna Karenina

ANALYSIS: At this point, I see no reason to move my top four picks. Argo is still my favorite for the win, with Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables and Lincoln all seeming like surefire nominations. There are a few major shifts from that point on, however, as The Master has moved all the way down to number nine. Due to Joaquin Phoenix's controversial anti-Oscar rant this week, as well as The Master's dismal box office returns and the fact that it was released just outside of the prime awards season, I could see The Master being shunned from the Best Picture race, though, as of right now, I see it just barely making it into the Top 10. Moving up a few slots- Life of Pi, which received positive word of mouth. I could see it being this year's Hugo. Django Unchained also looks wonderful, but Tarantino films are hard to predict. Still, Django seems like a relatively safe bet for the Academy. I also fell in love with the Hitchcock trailer, and could really see that securing a nomination, though that could change once reviews start coming in. Beasts, The Master and The Impossible are all distinct possibilities, with number 11-15 waiting in the wings as unlikely picks. 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln *
2. John Hawkes, The Sessions *
3. Denzel Washington, Flight
4. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
5. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
7. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
8. Matt Damon, Promised Land
9. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
10. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
11. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

ANALYSIS: Phoenix's comments will, no doubt, hurt his chances at winning. No, don't be mistaken. I do not think Daniel Day Lewis will win. He's already won twice, and his last win was just a few years ago. But, he's almost guaranteed a nomination. On the contrary, assuming he gets a nomination, I could see John Hawkes taking home the award. I'm considering him a lock for now, but I suppose it's a bit up in the air. Still, I see him being a strong contender. The recent reviews for Flight have made me think that Washington will certainly find himself amongst the nominees, with Phoenix being lowered considerably to slot four. Slot four and five (which I currently being held by Hopkins for Hitchcock) could easily be swapped out for Hugh Jackman or Bradley Cooper once we get later in the year. As for Damon, Pitt, Foxx and Lerman, there chances are slowly diminishing and could be removed from the next update.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook *
2. Hellen Mirren, Hitchcock
3. Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Keira Knightely, Anna Karenina
5. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
6. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
9. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

ANALYSIS: A quick note on this, I removed Maggie Smith simply because I had no idea what to expect with her nomination for Quartet. Lead? Supporting? No one seems to know yet. The fact remains, Jennifer Lawrence is the front runner by a mile in my eyes. The rest of the category is a war zone: You've got Hellen Mirren looking strong in the Hitchcock trailer (maybe even stronger than Hopkins?) and Quevanzhane Wallis looking strong, if she can overcome the hurdle of her age. Slightly less likely is Knightely, who I think could get in despite her polarizing film, and Watts, who the Academy doesn't seem to love much, but, it's The Impossible's best chance at serious awards representation. Just barely out of the top five are two actresses giving supposedly powerful performances in foreign films, Emmanuelle Riva and Marion Cotillard, who could sneak in their if the Academy responds well to their films. Meanwhile, Meryl Streep and Mary Elizabeth Winstead sit far on the outside as their films seem to have been forgotten by the Academy and serious critics. Especially a shame since the supposedly brilliant Winstead is getting virtually no representation from Sony Picture Classic. 

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained *
2. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln*
3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
5. Alan Arkin, Argo
6. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
7. Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
8. Bryan Cranston, Argo
9. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
10. Matthew McCanaughey, Magic Mike
11. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
12. Jude Law, Anna Karenina
13. Tom Holland, The Impossible
14. William H. Macy, The Sessions

ANALYSIS: With Lincoln premiering this month, I removed many actors from that film and have focused the category around Tommy Lee Jones who is, supposedly, the best thing about the film. Both he and DiCaprio are, in my opinion, locks. DiCaprio is long overdue in a big film where he looks fantastic, and Jones is a veteran actor turning in one of his best performances in recent memory. Both are locks. Narrowly escaping lock status is De Niro, while Phillip Seymour Hoffman has been lowered (again) to the Phoenix controversy. Arkin and Crowe will likely duke it out for the fifth slot, but I'm giving Arkin the upper hand for now. Holbrook could sneak in if Promised Land is any good, Cranston is well liked in Argo, Waltz looks strong in Django Unchained and McConaughey is supposedly fantastic in Magic Mike. Henry, Law, Holland and Macy all stand a slight chance, but they could be crushed by the big names. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables *
2. Helen Hunt, The Sessions *
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Amy Adams, The Master
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
8. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
9. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
10. Frances McDormand, Promised Land

ANALYSIS: Hathaway is a lock. We've known that. And Hunt seems like a lock now with The Sessions getting such brilliant reviews now that it's hit theaters. Meanwhile, Field and Adams seem like the likely gals to stick out from the remaining bunch, but it could get competitive. Johansson looks like solid in Hitchcock, but Barks could break out with Les Miserables and Chastain looks good in Zero Dark Thirty (though I have no clue if she is lead or supporting). We can't forget about Washington, Weaver and McDormand though. The competition isn't filled with heavy hitters, but it's still a tough field to pick. 

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo *
2. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables *
3. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln *
4. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook 
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
8. Benh Zaitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

ANALYSIS: Having just seen Argo (review to come in a little bit), I feel confident in saying that Ben Affleck has a good chance at winning the award. Even if the Academy splits the Best Picture and Best Director winner, I feel as if Affleck has a better chance at winning Best Director than Argo does for Best Picture. And that's because my number two pick for the category, Tom Hopper, just won a Best Director Oscar and I doubt the Academy would give him one again so quickly. Reviews for Lincoln make it seem like he's a shoo-in for a nomination, but he just doesn't have enough buzz to seem like the winner. Could O. Russell get it for Silver Linings Playbook? It's possible, but the film still seems light to me. if anything, Playbook would take home Best Picture and Affleck will take home Best Director. The rest of the potentials (Anderson, Lee, Tarantino and Zaitlin) all seem like long-shots at the moment. We'll see if any future developments could change that.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 

1. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
3. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
4. Matt Damon and John Krasinski, Promised Land
5. Michael Haneke, Amour
6. John Gatins, Flight
7. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
8. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths 
9. Rian Johnson, Looper
10. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike

ANALYSIS: With the loss of buzz for The Master, I'm having Tarantino swoop in as the top choice for a nomination, but this category is still wide open. If there are any locks, it's the top three, but even they don't seem like sure things. The rest of the nominations all seem like dark horses even for a nomination. Hopefully, as the awards season approaches, we get a more clear front runner.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Chris Terrio, Argo *
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook * 
3. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln *
4. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
5. William Nicholson, Les Miserables
6. Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. David Magee, Life of Pi
8. John J. McLaughlin, Hitchcock
9. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
10. Ronald Harwood, Quartet

ANALYSIS: I'd say the top three are locks. They are all big projects, the films are being well received and the Academy will surely want to honor them in this category. The rest, however, is wide open. The Sessions seems relatively likely, but if films like Life of Pi or Hitchcock really impress, they could fill out the category. Then there's Les Miserables, which I can't quite place my finger on. The film seems like one of the biggest films of the season, but will they be willing to nominate a film that will be primarily in song, not to mention previously published song? It'll be interesting, to say the least. I'm also secretly hoping that Summit pushes for a Perks nomination, but I really don't see that happening. As for Quartet, I just don't know what to expect.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Frankenweenie
3. ParaNorman
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. From Up on Poppy Hill
6. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untold Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
7. Brave

ANALYSIS: No locks yet for this one. If Wreck-it-Ralph delivers (and I really hope it does) then I could see it winning. Frankenweenie's dismal box office is hurting it's chances, and ParaNorman's buzz has died down, but I just don't know what other films could be nominated in their place. I think Brave's mixed response will likely hurt it, but maybe I'm wrong? This category is tough to predict for sure.

FOR NEXT TIME: The next time I post this, Wreck-it-Ralph and Flight would have hit theaters, and we will hopefully have more buzz on a few others. I hope to see The Sessions by then, but that all depends on whether or not it expands quickly enough. If it doesn't expand soon, I'll probably go see it in mid-November in New York, during a double feature with Anna Karenina. Only time will tell though. Anyway, reply in the comments! 

The Perks of Being a Wallflower- One of the Year's Must See Movies

Have you read The Perks of Being a Wallflower? Well, if you haven't, I highly recommend you give it a read.  It's a true page turner, and a novel which, I feel, extends far past the typical expectations of the teen novel genre and proves to be an emotional novel for all readers. But I'm not here to talk about the novel, I'm here to talk about the film, which happens to be directed by the book's author, Stephen Chbosky. And, despite some changes from the source material, Perks stands tall as one of the year's must see films.

The story of the introverted, and possibly disturbed, high school freshmen Charlie (Logan Lerman) could have been a cliched coming of age story. But, like the novel, Charlie's experiences with his friends from "the island of misfit toys" prove to be relatable and refreshing. Don't be fooled by the 90s setting or the young stars on the poster- this is a film that any generation can appreciate, due to how realistic the universal experiences that make up high school are depicted. From experimentation with drugs, to the awkwardness of sex, to the more serious issues like bullying and depression, it all feels wonderfully accurate. I may not have been a teenager during the 90s, but I certainly can relate to Charlie's experiences with his friends. The parties he goes to, the dates he goes on and the seemingly unimportant car rides with his best friends all felt like experiences ripped from my own high school years, and I'd be willing to bet others will find similarities in at least some of his experiences.

That's where the real strength of Perks lies. Through the realism in the film, Chbosky creates a giant heart at the film's core that's impossible to resist. In lesser hands, many characters could have become gratingly annoying, or like characters we've seen countless times before. The flamboyant and boisterous Patrick (Ezra Miller) could have been annoying but, instead, is entertaining and brings much needed comedy during darker moments. Sam's (Emma Watson) "dream girl' status could have made her feel like a one dimensional love interest, but she ends up coming off as a fully realized and flawed character. The supporting roles- including Rocky Horror loving punk Mary Elizabeth (Mae Whitman) and in-the-closet jock Brad (Johnny Simmons) grow out of their archetypes and feel like real people you passed in the hallway at school. Perhaps most remarkable is the way Chbosky makes the audience fall in love with the narrator, Charlie. Charlie obviously has problems, and his almost childlike naiveté could have become grating.  But, Charlie never becomes annoying. You constantly want the best for him, laugh while he laughs, and cry when he cries. Audiences will learn to love them, and want to spend more time with them.

The Perks of Being a Wallflower is, also, exceedingly well cast. I wrote off Logan Lerman early in his career (sorry, but Percy Jackson looked terrible). But, here, Lerman gives a performance that feels perfectly realized and is simply stunning. I'd argue it's Oscar worthy, even though there is virtually no chance at a nomination. But, he's surrounded by equally talented actors. Ezra Miller has, by far, the "showiest" role as his Patrick is responsible for being the comedic backbone of the film, while also being required to show the pain that comes with being an openly gay student in a close minded high school. Miller lives up to the challenge. As Sam, Emma Watson also delivers a strong performance, even if she is the weakest of the three. As a fan of the novel, I still feel Watson was slightly miscast. I just don't buy the fact that her character would have anything resembling a promiscuous past. But, Watson certainly shows her dramatic chops here, and has a remarkable amount of chemistry with Lerman. And her American accent? Perfect! Other wonderful casting decisions include the charming Mae Whitman, who helps make her abrasive character sympathetic and lovable,  as well as a perfectly cast Paul Rudd, who plays the "teacher role model" role perfectly without ever becoming creepy, and Melanie Lynskey as Charlie's late Aunt Helen.

As a whole, Perks works, delivering all the necessary drama, comedy and inspiration a coming of age dramadey would need. But, it's in the individual moments that the film's true power is revealed. Fans of the book will be happy to see how well their favorite moments are re-enacted. The Rocky Horror sequences are fun and hilarious. Charlie and Patrick's bonding over their relationship woes are heart breaking. The novel's memorable line, which signifies the book/film's theme, "We accept the love we think we deserve" is delivered perfectly, and fully explored during the rest of the film. And, perhaps most importantly, the "infinite" scene is directed beautifully, with all the emotional power you'd expect. Don't know what I'm talking about? Well then, go see the film! Trust me, you will be moved.

There have been many great films so far this year, but none have impacted me emotionally quite like The Perks of Being a Wallflower, and it's not just because I love the book. This is a well made, brilliantly acted drama that may be about teens, but can appeal to anyone. If you write this film off as "just another teen movie", you will miss out on one of the year's very best. Please, go check it out!

OVERALL GRADE: A+

Looper- A Bloody Breath of Fresh Air

Looper may borrow elements from Terminator, 12 Monkeys and other science fiction classics, but make no mistake: this is a wholly original film. Rian Johnson has crafted an exciting, thought provoking and intelligent movie that could, eventually, stand with the very films it seems influenced by as "the best of the genre."

The advertising campaign for Looper has, wisely, left much of the main plot secret, instead focusing on the fact that Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon Levitt are the same person, and that Levitt is trying to kill his older self. Don't find out anything else about this movie! The film becomes more and more fascinating as it's different layers are exposed, constantly surprising the audience with the direction it takes. Also worth praising is the way Johnson's screenplay isn't afraid to break the genre rules and get very dark when necessary. Without ever becoming too over the top or overly violent, Looper pushes itself into places mainstream films don't always go, and that helps to make the film even more unpredictable. The film features one of the most disturbing death scenes I've seen in recent memory, a sequence which prompted a woman in the audience I saw it with to walk out, and also features some surprisingly edgy subject matter. But, the way it incorporate such material doesn't feel exploitative, but organic.

Much also has to be said about Joseph Gordon Levitt's performance. Playing another actor, which is essentially what Levitt is doing in this film, is always a challenge. The fact that he's playing such a larger than life personality only adds to it. But, Levitt nails the performance, completely transforming into Willis. His voice, mannerisms and the way he exudes a 'tough guy' persona (something which Levitt never really had) is stunning. He disappears into the part. The other performances are all uniformly solid- Willis turns in one of his best performances in years, while Blunt also turns in a very subtle, but powerful, performance. Actors in minor roles, including Garret Dillahunt, Jeff Bridges and Piper Perabo also add to the film.

It's somewhat amusing that, after a summer where many films that cost hundreds of millions of dollars failed to entertain in the slightest, a film that caused a fraction of their budget proved to be one of the most exciting films of the year. Looper is an intense thrill ride that remains consistently exciting and suspenseful. The big, loud shootouts, such as the heavily marketed diner showdown, are well crafted, but don't overshadow the quiet anxiety formed during the film's less explosive moments. And, while the film certainly has the brains most action films lack, their is still plenty of brawn to be found. When Bruce Willis picks up some guns and blasts his way through an army of enemies, you still feel the same rush of adrenaline to be found in his classic blockbusters. This is marriage of action and intellect, with a dash of emotion thrown in their- but I won't say anymore about that.

I will say a bit, however, on the films flaws which- however minor- were still present. For one thing, as convincing as Levitt seemed in the part, his make-up was truly horrendous. One shot in particular (trust me, you'll know which one I'm talking about) was just terrible and made Levitt look like the victim of a plastic surgery gone horribly wrong. Another problem for me was Paul Dano who, in a small part, fails to live up to his usual standards. He is doing a lot of overacting here, and it gets annoying fast. My final nitpick is, naturally, some of the time travel holes. Or, actually, the way the film quickly dismisses them. At first I admired Johnson for completely eliminating anyone willing to pick apart the science of his film but, upon reflection, the line (something along the lines of "I don't want to talk about time travel, we'll be making diagrams with straws here the whole day") feels condescending. In a film with many great lines, this one falls flat and essentially admits that their are holes in the film's logic. And their are, but, I did not notice them during the film and think the movie remains strong with them. That line wasn't necessary. Still these are minor complaints that just barely distract from an otherwise wonderful film.

If you haven't seen Rian Johnson's other two films, the high school set neonoir Brick and the caper comedy The Brothers Bloom, seek them out right away. Looper may not be my favorite of his films (The Brothers Bloom, my fourth favorite of 2009,  had a huge emotional impact on me) but it stands tall as one of the year's very best. Even with minor problems, you will definitely get your money's worth in adrenaline and intellectual stimulus.

OVERALL GRADE: A

Early October Oscar Bracket Update

With September over, there hasn't been too much change to my Oscar brackets but enough to warrant another post. This month sees the release of quite a few Oscar movies, so it will be interesting to see what we'll be talking about by the end of the month, in terms of nomination predictions. Anyway, here are my current Oscar predictions:

REMEMBER- this is a ranking as to how likely a film is to be nominated in the category, with one meaning the most likely. Once we get later into Oscar season (mid November- early December) I will begin posting definitive Oscar nomination predictions. I've also stopped my rankings at 15 for all categories.
Also, an update: I will be putting an asterisk (*) next to the films/actors/writers/directors I'd consider locks. 

BEST PICTURE:

1. Argo *
2. Silver Linings Playbook *
3. Les Miserables *
4. Lincoln *
5. The Master *
6. Life of Pi *
7. Django Unchained
8. Hitchcock
9. The Impossible
10. Beats of the Southern Wild
11. Zero Dark Thirty
12. Amour
13. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
14. Moonrise Kingdom
15. Anna Karenina

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: The first major change to the brackets is the removal of Trouble With the Curve, which received largely negative reviews and didn't exactly set the box office on fire. I can't imagine it receiving any nominations, which is a shame considering it might be the last time we see Clint Eastwood on screen. My second major change is the addition of Hitchcock at number 8... I had no idea the film was even ready for release, and considering they are dropping it right in the middle of Oscar season could mean good things. But, I'm still waiting for a trailer to be sure. I've also moved Beasts of the Southern Wild down a few slots due to it's ineligibility at the SAG awards, which could hurt it, but I still feel it has the best shot out of all the "wild card" predictions.  In terms of locks, I'd consider my top six locks in the category, unless the ones which have not premiered yet (Les Miserables, Lincoln and Life of Pi disappoint). 

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: 

1. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master *
2. Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln *
3. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock 
4. John Hawkes, The Sessions
5. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
6. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
7. Denzel Washington, Flight
8. Matt Damon, Promised Land
9. Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
10. Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
11. Logan Lerman, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: There are two nominees I'd consider almost guarantees at a nomination- Phoenix, who I think will win, and Day Lewis, who will most definitely be nominated. After that, we have a couple of great actors fighting for the remaining three slots. Notably, I've removed Eastwood from the list for the same reason I took Trouble With the Curve off my Best Picture bracket, while I also moved Pitt down a few slots due to some murmurs I heard that he will be campaigned in the Supporting category. Until I hear anything official, I won't remove him from my list. I also added two new actors, most notably Anthony Hopkins for Hithcock, a role that has Oscar bait written all over it. If it's as good as it could be, he's a shoo-in for a nomination. I also added Matt Damon for the drama Promised Land, which looks mediocre to me but could surprise and be an Oscar contender.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE:

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook *
2. Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina 
3. Hellen Mirren, Hitchcock
4. Maggie Smith, Quartet
5. Quevanzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
6. Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
7. Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
8. Naomi Watts, The Impossible
9. Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
10. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Best Actress is, by far, the most difficult category to predict for me. There is only one guaranteed lock at this point, which is Lawrence, and everything below her is basically a guessing game. I was ready to have Wallis ruled as a lock as well, but I can't help but be worried by her ineligibility at the Screen Actors Guild award from affecting her chances. I also removed Viola Davis for Won't Back Down and Amy Adams for Trouble With the Curve, while also lowering Marion Cotillard a few notches due to that film not being chosen as the Foreign Language submission for France this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE: 

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained *
2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master *
3. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Alan Arkin, Argo
5. Russell Crowe, Les Miserables
6. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
7. David Strathaim, Lincoln
8. Hal Holbrook, Promised Land
9. Bryan Cranston, Argo
10. William H. Macy, The Sessions
11. Joseph Gordon Levitt, Lincoln
12. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
13. Tom Holland, The Impossible
14. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
15. Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: With my top three seeming like locks at this point, and the top 5 staying the same, Supporting Actor remains the easiest category to predict- for now.  However there are a number of other actors who could sneak in. With the trailer for Lincoln dropping, it appears clear that Joseph Gordon Levitt, David Strathaim and especially Tommy Lee Jones could sneak in their. It also seems like Hal Holbrook stands Promised Land's best chance for a nomination, while increased buzz for Argo lead me to pushing Cranston up a few spots. But still, I feel pretty confident in my top five at the moment. I also moved Dwight Henry down due to the Beasts/SAG controversy. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE:

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables *
2. Amy Adams, The Master *
3. Sally Field, Lincoln
4. Helen Hunt, The Sessions
5. Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock
6. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables
7. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
8. Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
9. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
10. Kerry Washington, Django Unchained
11. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
12. Frances McDormand, Promised Land
13. Kelly Macdonald, Anna Karenina
14. Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Finally, a category without many major changes.There are, however, two major additions- Scarlett Johansson and Frances McDormand! I also moved Sally Field up a slot after seeing the Lincoln trailer, but still feel like the locks in the category- Adams and especially Hathaway- stand a good chance at winning. 

BEST DIRECTOR:

1. Ben Affleck, Argo *
2. Tom Hopper, Les Miserables *
3. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
4. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
6. Ang Lee, Life of Pi
7. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
8. Benh Zaitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild 

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Nothing really worth talking about- the only reason I bumped Hopper up a slot was because of that incredible behind the scenes look at Les Miserables that makes me thought (briefly) that it could take home the award for Best Picture. I'll wait for the premiere before calling that, but for now we'll see. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master *
2. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained *
3. Michael Haneke, Amour
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdon
5. Matt Damon and John Krasinski, Promised Land
6. Sergio G. Sanchez, Seven Psychopaths
7. Rian Johnson, Looper
8. Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
9. Reid Carolin, Magic Mike

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: Basically, I don't know what I was thinking putting Amour so low on the list last time. And I added Promised Land. But other than the locks, I feel like this is anyone's game.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

1. Chris Terrio, Argo *
2. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook *
3. William Nicholson, Les Miserables
4. Tony Kushner, John Logan and Paul Webb, Lincoln
5. Ben Lewin, The Sessions
6. Lucy Alibar and Ben Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
7. David Magee, Life of Pi
8. John J. McLaughlin, Hitchcock
9. Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
10. Ronald Harwood, Quartet

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved The Sessions up a slot due to the same exact SAG controversy I've been talking about since Best Picture. I also added Hitchcock the list due to that film's sudden addition the schedule.

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

1. Wreck-it-Ralph
2. Frankenweenie
3. ParaNorman
4. Rise of the Guardians
5. From Up on Poppy Hill
6. A Liar's Autobiography- The Untrue Story of Monty Python's Graham Chapman
7. Brave

NOTABLE CHANGES AND EXPLANATIONS: I moved Rise of the Guardians up a few slots due to how many other Oscar prediction sites have it on their list. Still, this is a tough category to predict since we've only seen three of these films. I can't even truly say what I'd consider a lock at this point.

FOR THE NEXT UPDATE: My next update will be at the end of the month, after a number of Oscar films hit theaters and the New York Film Festival takes place. Stay tuned and leave comments or your own predictions!